Bayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayer Leverkusen
12th · 1 pts · 2 played
LD
3–1Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt
2nd · 6 pts · 2 played
WW
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were slight favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 71). Absences weigh more on Eintracht Frankfurt. Bayer Leverkusen had 13.2 days of rest, Eintracht Frankfurt 13.2 and had to travel 157 km.
Away travel157 kmRest days13.2 · 13.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Bayer Leverkusen54%
Draw23%
Eintracht Frankfurt22%
Bayer Leverkusen51%
Draw25%
Eintracht Frankfurt23%
Bayer Leverkusen54%
Draw24%
Eintracht Frankfurt23%
Bayer Leverkusen47%
Draw25%
Eintracht Frankfurt28%
Bayer Leverkusen52%
Draw25%
Eintracht Frankfurt23%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leverkusen)
No weather data yet
RefereeDeniz Aytekin
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 61
Team strength
Bayer LeverkusenEintracht Frankfurt
80
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
78
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
87
AttackIn forecast
54
79
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayer LeverkusenEintracht Frankfurt
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.50
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
2.07
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.70
+0.76
Goals minus xGContext
+1.43
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.50
ShotsContext
13.50
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
35%
On target shareContext
41%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
56%
Box shareContext
69%
24%
ConversionContext
26%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.00
Shots allowedContext
13.00
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
—
BlocksContext
1.50
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
50%
Save rateContext
78%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
556
PassesContext
403
487
Accurate passesContext
327
88%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.82
Team ratingContext
7.31
9.50
FoulsContext
9.50
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
+0.59
Goals minus xGContext
+0.45
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.20
ShotsContext
11.30
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
39%
On target shareContext
44%
5.70
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
53%
Box shareContext
69%
17%
ConversionContext
19%
2.43
OffsidesContext
1.88
10.30
Shots allowedContext
10.50
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
2.67
BlocksContext
1.78
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
63%
Save rateContext
83%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
569
PassesContext
434
496
Accurate passesContext
356
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.99
Team ratingContext
7.16
10.20
FoulsContext
10.10
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest13.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km519 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest13.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel157 km194 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayer Leverkusen |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 30 Aug | 13.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 157 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 519 km | 194 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 8.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
1M. Flekken(G)
12E. Tapsoba
5L. Badé
4J. Quansah
20Álex Grimaldo
25E. Palacios
8R. Andrich
21Lucas Vázquez
10M. Tillman
23N. Tella
14P. Schick
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
23M. Zetterer(G)
3A. Theate
4R. Koch
34P. Collins
13R. Kristensen
8F. Chaïbi
6O. Højlund
19J. Bahoya
42C. Uzun
20R. Doan
9J. Burkardt
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayer Leverkusen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Eintracht Frankfurt
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayer Leverkusen+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Eintracht Frankfurt-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayer Leverkusen · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Eintracht Frankfurt · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Bayer Leverkusen | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | D 3–3 A | W 4–1 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–2 H | W 3–1 A |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
6 Bayer Leverkusen wins0 draws2 Eintracht Frankfurt wins
Goals per game2.75 – 1.75
Over 2.588%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 1 Mar 2025Eintracht Frankfurt1–4Bayer Leverkusen
- 19 Oct 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–1Eintracht Frankfurt
- 5 May 2024Eintracht Frankfurt1–5Bayer Leverkusen
- 17 Dec 2023Bayer Leverkusen3–0Eintracht Frankfurt
- 8 Apr 2023Bayer Leverkusen3–1Eintracht Frankfurt
- 15 Oct 2022Eintracht Frankfurt5–1Bayer Leverkusen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayer Leverkusen | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 3.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 4.50 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 3.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 4.50 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayer Leverkusen | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.00 | 10.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 4.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 3.50 | 5.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 5.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 8.38 | 10.00 | 10.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.50 | 5.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Deniz Aytekin 61 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.49league 4.83
Red cards0.18league 0.28
Cards 5+33%league 56%
Fouls22.7league 23.3
Penalties0.28league 0.39
Home wins36%league 39%
Bayer Leverkusen8 with this referee
Record4-2-2
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L11 May 25H · Borussia Dortmund2–40
- W30 Mar 24H · 1899 Hoffenheim2–10
- D27 Jan 24H · Borussia Mönchengladbach0–03
- D10 Dec 23A · VfB Stuttgart1–11
- W1 Apr 23A · FC Schalke 043–01
Eintracht Frankfurt8 with this referee
Record3-1-4
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W29 Mar 25H · VfB Stuttgart1–01
- L13 Apr 24A · VfB Stuttgart0–33
- W27 May 23H · SC Freiburg2–14
- L22 Apr 23A · Borussia Dortmund0–43
- D25 Jan 23A · SC Freiburg1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayer Leverkusen2 games · scored 4 · conceded 5
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt2 games · scored 7 · conceded 2
0-15
4
16-30
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 21 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
6
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
7
61-75
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
