Bayer Leverkusen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Bayer Leverkusen
12th · 1 pts · 2 played
LD
3–1Full time
Eintracht Frankfurt
2nd · 6 pts · 2 played
WW
Bayer Leverkusen54.4%fair odds 1.84
Draw23.5%fair odds 4.26
Eintracht Frankfurt22.1%fair odds 4.52
Expected goals1.89 – 1.14total 3.03
Likeliest score1–110.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Eintracht Frankfurt
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Bayer Leverkusen ↓ · Eintracht Frankfurt → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.9 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bayer Leverkusen goals, columns Eintracht Frankfurt goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%9.14
- 2–19.8%10.16
- 2–08.6%11.58
- 1–08.6%11.67
- 3–16.2%16.10
- 1–25.9%16.89
- 2–25.6%17.84
- 3–05.5%18.34
- 0–05.4%18.63
- 0–14.9%20.25
Winning margin
15.0%
Bayer Leverkusen by 3+
fair 6.68
16.8%
Bayer Leverkusen by 2
fair 5.96
22.7%
Bayer Leverkusen by 1
fair 4.41
23.5%
Draw
fair 4.26
13.4%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 1
fair 7.45
6.1%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 2
fair 16.45
2.6%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 3+
fair 38.01
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Bayer Leverkusen goals
15%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
Eintracht Frankfurt goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen win | 54.4% | 52.3% | +2.2 pp |
| Draw | 23.5% | 25.2% | -1.7 pp |
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 22.1% | 22.5% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.4% | 51.7% | +6.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.3% | 53.5% | +4.8 pp |
| Expected goals Bayer Leverkusen | 1.89 | 1.70 | +0.19 |
| Expected goals Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.14 | 1.04 | +0.10 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Bayer Leverkusen win54.4%1.84
- Draw23.5%4.26
- Eintracht Frankfurt win22.1%4.52
- Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or draw77.9%1.28
- Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or Eintracht Frankfurt76.5%1.31
- Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or draw45.6%2.19
- Draw no bet Bayer Leverkusen71.1%1.41
- Draw no bet Eintracht Frankfurt28.9%3.46
Goals
- Over 0.594.6%1.06
- Over 1.581.1%1.23
- Over 2.558.4%1.71
- Over 3.536.0%2.78
- Over 4.519.0%5.25
- Under 1.518.9%5.30
- Under 2.541.6%2.40
- Under 3.564.0%1.56
Both teams to score
- Yes58.3%1.71
- No41.7%2.40
- Yes and over 2.547.4%2.11
- Bayer Leverkusen win and yes27.8%3.60
- Draw and yes18.1%5.53
- Eintracht Frankfurt win and yes12.4%8.04
Team goals
- Bayer Leverkusen over 0.584.9%1.18
- Bayer Leverkusen over 1.556.4%1.77
- Bayer Leverkusen over 2.529.5%3.40
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.568.0%1.47
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.531.5%3.17
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.510.8%9.29
- Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet32.0%3.12
- Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet15.1%6.64
- Bayer Leverkusen win to nil26.6%3.75
- Eintracht Frankfurt win to nil9.7%10.33
Handicap
- Bayer Leverkusen −1.531.8%3.15
- Bayer Leverkusen −2.515.0%6.68
- Eintracht Frankfurt +1.568.2%1.47
- Eintracht Frankfurt +2.585.0%1.18
- Eintracht Frankfurt −1.58.7%11.48
- Bayer Leverkusen +1.591.3%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored18
Favourite won44.4%
Avg chance given to result39.1%
1X2 Brier0.640
Over 2.5 called right66.7%
BTTS called right61.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.4% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 5 | 45.6% | 20.0% |
| 50–60% | 5 | 54.5% | 40.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 66.4% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.2% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 18 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 18 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.