Bayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayer Leverkusen
6th · 58 pts · 33 played
WLWWL
1–1Full time
Hamburger SV
11th · 37 pts · 33 played
LLLWW
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were clear favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 38). Bayer Leverkusen usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Bayer Leverkusen had 7 days of rest, Hamburger SV 6 and had to travel 347 km.
Away travel347 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Bayer Leverkusen75%
Draw15%
Hamburger SV10%
Bayer Leverkusen69%
Draw19%
Hamburger SV12%
Bayer Leverkusen74%
Draw15%
Hamburger SV11%
Bayer Leverkusen68%
Draw18%
Hamburger SV15%
Bayer Leverkusen73%
Draw16%
Hamburger SV11%
Over 2.5 75%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leverkusen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Stieler
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 108
Team strength
Bayer LeverkusenHamburger SV
77
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
79
Current StrengthIn forecast
40
87
AttackIn forecast
37
79
DefenceIn forecast
43
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHamburger SV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayer LeverkusenHamburger SV
2.03
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.18
1.39
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.61
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
88%
Scored inContext
70%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
13.94
ShotsContext
11.52
4.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.45
35%
On target shareContext
39%
8.85
Shots in the boxContext
7.58
61%
Box shareContext
63%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
1.48
OffsidesContext
2.12
12.18
Shots allowedContext
13.79
4.91
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.03
3.13
BlocksContext
3.55
3.55
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.32
71%
Save rateContext
64%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
589
PassesContext
381
521
Accurate passesContext
309
88%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.85
8.45
FoulsContext
11.52
10.36
Fouls sufferedContext
12.45
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.09
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.09
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.08
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
90%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.00
ShotsContext
9.40
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
36%
On target shareContext
42%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.22
64%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.67
13.60
Shots allowedContext
14.60
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
3.20
BlocksContext
3.56
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
67%
Save rateContext
65%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
515
PassesContext
335
451
Accurate passesContext
260
88%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.82
7.50
FoulsContext
10.40
9.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km590 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Hamburger SV
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel347 km785 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayer Leverkusen |
Hamburger SV |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 9 May | 6Bundesliga 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 347 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 590 km | 785 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 105 | 105.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
1M. Flekken(G)
12E. Tapsoba
8R. Andrich
4J. Quansah
20Álex Grimaldo
25E. Palacios
24Aleix García
42Montrell Amare Culbreath
10M. Tillman
30I. Maza
14P. Schick
Hamburger SV
Confirmed XI
12S. Tangvik(G)
25J. Torunarigha
44L. Vušković
17W. Omari
23A. Grønbæk
6A. Sambi Lokonga
21N. Remberg
24N. Capaldo
14Rayan Philippe
20Fábio Vieira
49Otto Stange
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayer Leverkusen
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Hamburger SV
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayer Leverkusen+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Hamburger SV-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayer Leverkusen · Home
1.88points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-3-4
- Scored
- 2.31
- Conceded
- 1.13
Hamburger SV · Away
0.81points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-9
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 1.94
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Bayer Leverkusen | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | L 1–3 AL 1–4 H | L 0–4 AW 2–1 H |
| RB Leipzig | W 4–1 HW 3–1 A | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 HL 1–4 A |
| FC Augsburg | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 6–3 HW 3–1 A | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 3–3 AW 6–0 H | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Bayern München | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A | D 2–2 HL 0–5 A |
| SC Freiburg | D 3–3 AW 2–0 H | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A | D 1–1 AW 4–0 H |
| Union Berlin | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 4–0 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A | L 1–3 AW 3–2 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 HL 1–4 A |
| Points | 55 of 96 · 1.72 per game | 37 of 96 · 1.16 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Bayer Leverkusen wins0 draws0 Hamburger SV wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 4 Mar 2026Hamburger SV0–1Bayer Leverkusen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayer Leverkusen | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.03 | 1.18 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.39 | 1.61 | |
| Match goals | 3.42 | 2.79 | 3.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 58% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 64% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 12% | 30% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Hamburger SV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.20 | 3.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 75% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayer Leverkusen | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.31 | 3.77 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.03 | 5.65 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 9.42 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 66% 21/32 | 58% 18/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 17/32 | 45% 14/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 34% 11/32 | 32% 10/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.06 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.42 | |
| Match total | 4.76 | 4.75 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 19/33 | 73% 24/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 14/33 | 58% 19/33 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Hamburger SV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.22 | 3.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.78 | 6.89 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.45 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.10 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Stieler Germany · 108 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.64league 3.69
Red cards0.19league 0.17
Cards 5+32%league 37%
Fouls21.8league 20.2
Penalties0.31league 0.35
Home wins53%league 44%
Bayer Leverkusen10 with this referee
Record7-2-1
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds1
- D28 Feb 26H · FSV Mainz 051–11
- W5 Apr 25A · 1. FC Heidenheim1–00
- W10 Jan 25A · Borussia Dortmund3–22
- W21 Dec 24H · SC Freiburg5–11
- W3 Mar 24A · 1.FC Köln2–02
Hamburger SV2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D20 Dec 25H · Eintracht Frankfurt1–10
- L13 Sep 25A · Bayern München0–52
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayer Leverkusen33 games · scored 67 · conceded 46
11
6
0-15
11
6
16-30
18
14
31-45
8
6
46-60
8
5
61-75
11
9
76-90
Hamburger SV33 games · scored 39 · conceded 53
3
4
0-15
4
11
16-30
10
10
31-45
9
10
46-60
7
6
61-75
6
12
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 20 · conceded 17
3
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
Hamburger SV10 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
5
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
