Bundesliga Gameweek 3 Sat, Sep 13 · 17:30 Allianz Arena, München
Bayern München 3rd · 6 pts · 2 played
5–0Full time
Hamburger SV 16th · 1 pts · 2 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Bayern München were clear favourites.

Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 31). Bayern München usually keep the ball (64% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Bayern München had 14 days of rest, Hamburger SV 14.9 and had to travel 612 km.

Away travel612 kmRest days14 · 14.9Matches / 14d1 · 0
Bayern München87%
Draw9%
Hamburger SV4%
Expected goals 3.34 – 0.65
Bayern München84%
Draw11%
Hamburger SV5%
Expected goals 2.96 – 0.60
Bayern München87%
Draw9%
Hamburger SV4%
Expected goals 3.33 – 0.65
Bayern München82%
Draw12%
Hamburger SV6%
Expected goals 2.97 – 0.73
Bayern München84%
Draw11%
Hamburger SV5%
Expected goals 2.96 – 0.61
Over 2.5 76% Both score 47% Likeliest score 3–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (München)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyTobias Stieler
  • Cards per match 3.9
  • Penalties per match 0.28
  • Matches 85

Team strength

Bayern MünchenHamburger SV
90 L90 StrengthIn forecast 31
93 Current StrengthIn forecast 40
96 AttackIn forecast 37
90 DefenceIn forecast 43
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayern München

Attack—
Defense risk—

Hamburger SV

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bayern MünchenHamburger SV
4.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.00
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
2.56 xGVia Att/Def 0.45
0.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.21
+1.94 Goals minus xGContext -0.45
100% Scored inContext 0%
50% Clean sheetsContext 50%
18.50 ShotsContext 6.00
9.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.00
51% On target shareContext 33%
13.50 Shots in the boxContext 2.00
73% Box shareContext 34%
24% ConversionContext 0%
2.50 OffsidesContext 2.50
11.00 Shots allowedContext 16.50
2.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
4.00 BlocksContext 4.50
1.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
50% Save rateContext 80%
61% PossessionIn forecast 44%
580 PassesContext 393
512 Accurate passesContext 322
88% Pass accuracyContext 82%
7.52 Team ratingContext 6.81
12.00 FoulsContext 11.50
13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 14.50
4.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.25
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
2.00 xGVia Att/Def —
0.85 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
+1.00 Goals minus xGContext —
100% Scored inContext 25%
50% Clean sheetsContext 50%
18.90 ShotsContext 8.00
7.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.25
40% On target shareContext 28%
12.70 Shots in the boxContext 2.75
67% Box shareContext 35%
16% ConversionContext 3%
2.17 OffsidesContext 2.25
9.70 Shots allowedContext 14.00
3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
2.89 BlocksContext 4.00
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.25
74% Save rateContext 85%
62% PossessionIn forecast 51%
614 PassesContext 434
547 Accurate passesContext 349
89% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.32 Team ratingContext 6.92
9.20 FoulsContext 10.75
9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 0.75
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 4 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayern München
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km113 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Hamburger SV
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel612 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Bayern München Hamburger SV
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14Bundesliga 2025-2026, 30 Aug14.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 29 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km612 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways113 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 20 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one6.96.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayern München Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1M. Neuer(G)
44J. Stanišić 4J. Tah 2D. Upamecano 27K. Laimer
45A. Pavlović 6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz 7S. Gnabry 17M. Olise
9H. Kane
+1 more reported missing outside this XI
Hamburger SV Confirmed XI
5-4-1
1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)
28M. Muheim 22Aboubaka Soumahoro 44L. Vušković 17W. Omari 2W. Mikelbrencis
38Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit 24N. Capaldo 21N. Remberg 20Fábio Vieira
11R. Königsdörffer
+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Bayern München Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Hamburger SV Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Bayern München+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Hamburger SV+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Bayern München · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
6.00
Conceded
0.00
Hamburger SV · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-1-0
Scored
0.00
Conceded
0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Bayern MünchenHamburger SVForecast
Scored per game 4.500.00
Conceded per game 1.001.00
Match goals 5.501.00 3.99
Over 1.5 100%50%
Over 2.5 100%0% 76%
Over 3.5 100%0%
Both teams scored 50%0% 47%
Clean sheets 50%50%
Failed to score 0%100%
Games22
Bayern MünchenHamburger SVForecast
Scored per game 4.500.00
Conceded per game 1.001.00
Match goals 5.501.00 3.99
Over 1.5 100%50%
Over 2.5 100%0% 76%
Over 3.5 100%0%
Both teams scored 50%0% 47%
Clean sheets 50%50%
Failed to score 0%100%
Games22

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Bayern MünchenHamburger SVLeague
Corners
Corners won5.004.00
Corners conceded6.005.50
Match total11.009.5010.09
Over 8.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 9.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 10.550% 1/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards4.002.00
Opponent cards2.002.50
Match total6.004.504.91
Over 3.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 4.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Bayern MünchenHamburger SVLeague
Corners
Corners won4.604.00
Corners conceded4.104.50
Match total8.708.5010.09
Over 8.560% 6/1025% 1/4
Over 9.550% 5/1025% 1/4
Over 10.540% 4/1025% 1/4
Cards
Cards1.601.00
Opponent cards1.903.00
Match total3.504.004.91
Over 3.570% 7/1050% 2/4
Over 4.530% 3/1025% 1/4

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Tobias Stieler Germany · 85 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.66league 4.46
Red cards0.19league 0.42
Cards 5+32%league 54%
Fouls22.0league 22.8
Penalties0.28league 0.46
Home wins52%league 38%
Bayern München6 with this referee
Record4-1-1 Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 2
  • W19 Oct 24H · VfB Stuttgart4–00
  • W3 Feb 24H · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–10
  • W17 Dec 23H · VfB Stuttgart3–00
  • L19 Mar 23A · Bayer Leverkusen1–23
  • D24 Jan 23H · 1.FC Köln1–10
Hamburger SV

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Bayern München2 games · scored 9 · conceded 2
0-15
2 16-30
3 31-45
1 1 46-60
2 61-75
1 1 76-90
Hamburger SV2 games · scored 0 · conceded 2
0-15
1 16-30
31-45
1 46-60
61-75
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 30 · conceded 11
1 1 0-15
4 16-30
7 2 31-45
4 3 46-60
6 2 61-75
8 3 76-90
Hamburger SV4 games · scored 1 · conceded 4
1 0-15
1 16-30
31-45
1 1 46-60
1 61-75
76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Bayer Leverkusen Eintracht Frankfurt 31 SC Freiburg VfB Stuttgart 31 VfL Wolfsburg 1.FC Köln 33 FSV Mainz 05 RB Leipzig 01 1. FC Heidenheim Borussia Dortmund 02 Union Berlin 1899 Hoffenheim 24 Bayern München Hamburger SV 50 FC St. Pauli FC Augsburg 21 Borussia Mönchengladbach Werder Bremen 04