Bayern München
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Bayern München87.0%fair odds 1.15
Draw9.1%fair odds 10.93
Hamburger SV3.8%fair odds 25.98
Expected goals3.34 – 0.65total 3.99
Likeliest score3–011.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Hamburger SV
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Bayern München ↓ · Hamburger SV → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bayern München goals, columns Hamburger SV goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 3–011.4%8.74
- 2–010.3%9.71
- 4–09.5%10.48
- 3–17.5%13.34
- 2–16.7%14.83
- 5–06.4%15.71
- 4–16.2%16.00
- 1–06.0%16.78
- 1–14.3%23.49
- 5–14.2%23.99
Winning margin
51.2%
Bayern München by 3+
fair 1.95
20.2%
Bayern München by 2
fair 4.96
15.7%
Bayern München by 1
fair 6.39
9.1%
Draw
fair 10.93
2.9%
Hamburger SV by 1
fair 34.46
0.8%
Hamburger SV by 2
fair 128.64
0.2%
Hamburger SV by 3+
fair 587.51
Goal distribution
Total goals
2%0
7%1
15%2
20%3
20%4
37%5+
Bayern München goals
4%0
12%1
20%2
22%3
43%4+
Hamburger SV goals
52%0
34%1
11%2
2%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München win | 87.0% | 84.2% | +2.8 pp |
| Draw | 9.1% | 11.2% | -2.0 pp |
| Hamburger SV win | 3.8% | 4.6% | -0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 76.0% | 69.2% | +6.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 46.5% | 43.4% | +3.2 pp |
| Expected goals Bayern München | 3.34 | 2.96 | +0.37 |
| Expected goals Hamburger SV | 0.65 | 0.61 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Bayern München win87.0%1.15
- Draw9.1%10.93
- Hamburger SV win3.8%25.98
- Double chance Bayern München or draw96.2%1.04
- Double chance Bayern München or Hamburger SV90.9%1.10
- Double chance Hamburger SV or draw13.0%7.69
- Draw no bet Bayern München95.8%1.04
- Draw no bet Hamburger SV4.2%23.60
Goals
- Over 0.597.9%1.02
- Over 1.591.0%1.10
- Over 2.576.0%1.32
- Over 3.556.4%1.77
- Over 4.536.9%2.71
- Under 1.59.0%11.08
- Under 2.524.0%4.17
- Under 3.543.6%2.29
Both teams to score
- Yes46.5%2.15
- No53.5%1.87
- Yes and over 2.542.3%2.36
- Bayern München win and yes37.1%2.69
- Draw and yes7.1%14.12
- Hamburger SV win and yes2.4%42.53
Team goals
- Bayern München over 0.596.4%1.04
- Bayern München over 1.584.6%1.18
- Bayern München over 2.564.7%1.54
- Hamburger SV over 0.548.0%2.08
- Hamburger SV over 1.514.0%7.13
- Hamburger SV over 2.52.9%34.63
- Bayern München clean sheet52.0%1.92
- Hamburger SV clean sheet3.6%28.06
- Bayern München win to nil49.9%2.00
- Hamburger SV win to nil1.5%66.76
Handicap
- Bayern München −1.571.3%1.40
- Bayern München −2.551.2%1.95
- Hamburger SV +1.528.7%3.49
- Hamburger SV +2.548.8%2.05
- Hamburger SV −1.50.9%105.53
- Bayern München +1.599.1%1.01
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored24
Favourite won41.7%
Avg chance given to result39.5%
1X2 Brier0.623
Over 2.5 called right66.7%
BTTS called right62.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 3 | 38.0% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 7 | 44.8% | 14.3% |
| 50–60% | 7 | 53.9% | 42.9% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 65.9% | 80.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.2% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 6 of 24 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5717 | 0.5752 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.5% | 39.4% |
| Favourite won | 33.3% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 6 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 24 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.