Bayern München
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Bayern München70.0%fair odds 1.43
Draw17.7%fair odds 5.63
RB Leipzig12.2%fair odds 8.17
Expected goals2.46 – 0.95total 3.40
Likeliest score2–010.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
RB Leipzig
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Bayern München ↓ · RB Leipzig → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bayern München goals, columns RB Leipzig goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.0%9.98
- 2–19.5%10.52
- 3–08.2%12.20
- 1–18.2%12.27
- 3–17.8%12.85
- 1–07.7%12.91
- 4–05.0%19.86
- 4–14.8%20.93
- 2–24.5%22.17
- 0–03.7%26.79
Winning margin
27.8%
Bayern München by 3+
fair 3.60
20.5%
Bayern München by 2
fair 4.89
21.8%
Bayern München by 1
fair 4.60
17.7%
Draw
fair 5.63
8.2%
RB Leipzig by 1
fair 12.26
3.1%
RB Leipzig by 2
fair 32.75
1.0%
RB Leipzig by 3+
fair 96.69
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
10%1
20%2
22%3
19%4
26%5+
Bayern München goals
9%0
21%1
26%2
21%3
23%4+
RB Leipzig goals
39%0
37%1
17%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München win | 70.0% | 66.5% | +3.5 pp |
| Draw | 17.7% | 20.3% | -2.5 pp |
| RB Leipzig win | 12.2% | 13.2% | -1.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 66.1% | 57.4% | +8.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.4% | 51.0% | +5.5 pp |
| Expected goals Bayern München | 2.46 | 2.14 | +0.32 |
| Expected goals RB Leipzig | 0.95 | 0.85 | +0.10 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Bayern München win70.0%1.43
- Draw17.7%5.63
- RB Leipzig win12.2%8.17
- Double chance Bayern München or draw87.8%1.14
- Double chance Bayern München or RB Leipzig82.3%1.22
- Double chance RB Leipzig or draw30.0%3.33
- Draw no bet Bayern München85.1%1.17
- Draw no bet RB Leipzig14.9%6.72
Goals
- Over 0.596.3%1.04
- Over 1.585.8%1.17
- Over 2.566.1%1.51
- Over 3.544.3%2.26
- Over 4.525.7%3.90
- Under 1.514.2%7.03
- Under 2.533.9%2.95
- Under 3.555.7%1.79
Both teams to score
- Yes56.4%1.77
- No43.6%2.30
- Yes and over 2.548.3%2.07
- Bayern München win and yes35.0%2.86
- Draw and yes14.0%7.13
- RB Leipzig win and yes7.4%13.53
Team goals
- Bayern München over 0.591.4%1.09
- Bayern München over 1.570.3%1.42
- Bayern München over 2.544.5%2.25
- RB Leipzig over 0.561.3%1.63
- RB Leipzig over 1.524.5%4.07
- RB Leipzig over 2.57.1%14.06
- Bayern München clean sheet38.7%2.58
- RB Leipzig clean sheet8.6%11.65
- Bayern München win to nil35.0%2.86
- RB Leipzig win to nil4.8%20.63
Handicap
- Bayern München −1.548.3%2.07
- Bayern München −2.527.8%3.60
- RB Leipzig +1.551.7%1.93
- RB Leipzig +2.572.2%1.39
- RB Leipzig −1.54.1%24.46
- Bayern München +1.595.9%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.