Bayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 62). Absences weigh more on Bayern München. Bayern München had ? days of rest, RB Leipzig ? and had to travel 361 km.
Away travel361 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Bayern München70%
Draw18%
RB Leipzig12%
Bayern München68%
Draw20%
RB Leipzig13%
Bayern München71%
Draw17%
RB Leipzig12%
Bayern München62%
Draw21%
RB Leipzig17%
Bayern München66%
Draw20%
RB Leipzig13%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (München)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFlorian Badstubner
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 54
Team strength
Bayern München
RB Leipzig
89
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
96
AttackIn forecast
76
90
DefenceIn forecast
53
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayern MünchenRB Leipzig
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
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On target shareContext
—
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
—
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ConversionContext
—
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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2.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
2.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
0.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
+0.62
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
100%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
19.00
ShotsContext
13.10
7.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
38%
On target shareContext
33%
13.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
68%
Box shareContext
58%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.60
9.10
Shots allowedContext
15.30
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
2.44
BlocksContext
4.90
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
73%
Save rateContext
67%
64%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
636
PassesContext
466
567
Accurate passesContext
387
89%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.29
Team ratingContext
7.07
8.90
FoulsContext
10.40
8.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.70
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayern München
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
RB Leipzig
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel361 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayern München |
RB Leipzig |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 361 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
1M. Neuer(G)
44J. Stanišić
4J. Tah
2D. Upamecano
27K. Laimer
8L. Goretzka
6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz
7S. Gnabry
17M. Olise
9H. Kane
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
1P. Gulácsi(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
10X. Simons
13N. Seiwald
24X. Schlager
49Y. Diomande
11I. Openda
9S. Bakayoko
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayern München
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
RB Leipzig
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayern München-1.1 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- RB Leipzig+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayern München · Home
No home games yet this season.
RB Leipzig · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Bayern München wins3 draws1 RB Leipzig wins
Goals per game2.63 – 1.75
Over 2.588%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 3 May 2025RB Leipzig3–3Bayern München
- 20 Dec 2024Bayern München5–1RB Leipzig
- 24 Feb 2024Bayern München2–1RB Leipzig
- 30 Sep 2023RB Leipzig2–2Bayern München
- 20 May 2023Bayern München1–3RB Leipzig
- 20 Jan 2023RB Leipzig1–1Bayern München
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayern München | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 3.40 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 56% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Bayern München | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 3.40 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 56% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayern München | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Bayern München | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 6.70 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 12.00 | |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.60 | |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Badstubner Germany · 54 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.56
Red cards0.19
Cards 5+31%
Fouls22.1
Penalties0.30
Home wins52%
Bayern München4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 0.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W29 Mar 25H · FC St. Pauli3–23
- W11 Mar 23H · FC Augsburg5–32
- W26 Feb 22A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–02
- L3 Oct 21H · Eintracht Frankfurt1–22
RB Leipzig8 with this referee
Record7-1-0
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.6
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds1
- W9 Feb 25H · FC St. Pauli2–03
- W7 Dec 24A · Holstein Kiel2–03
- W15 Mar 24A · 1.FC Köln5–12
- W14 May 23H · Werder Bremen2–12
- W1 Oct 22H · VfL Bochum4–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayern MünchenRB LeipzigBayern München10 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
8
3
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
3
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
5
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
