Benfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Benfica were clear favourites.
Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 11). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for AVS. Benfica had 8 days of rest, AVS 6 and had to travel.
Rest days8 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Benfica85%
Draw11%
AVS4%
Benfica88%
Draw9%
AVS3%
Benfica85%
Draw11%
AVS4%
Benfica80%
Draw14%
AVS6%
Benfica86%
Draw10%
AVS4%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 36%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalMiguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca
- Cards per match 5.6
- Penalties per match 0.43
- Matches 7
Team strength
Benfica
AVS
79
L90 StrengthIn forecast
11
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
81
AttackIn forecast
17
81
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BenficaAVS
2.09
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.82
0.59
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.45
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
0.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
91%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
5%
16.14
ShotsContext
10.23
5.95
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.73
37%
On target shareContext
27%
10.41
Shots in the boxContext
5.76
65%
Box shareContext
55%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.00
7.91
Shots allowedContext
14.09
2.76
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.32
2.36
BlocksContext
3.24
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.05
81%
Save rateContext
57%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
488
PassesContext
309
417
Accurate passesContext
231
85%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.56
10.86
FoulsContext
13.18
15.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.68
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
2.18
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.87
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
70%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
17.90
ShotsContext
10.80
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
35%
On target shareContext
26%
11.80
Shots in the boxContext
5.30
66%
Box shareContext
50%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
1.29
OffsidesContext
1.78
9.30
Shots allowedContext
15.40
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
3.20
BlocksContext
3.44
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
69%
Save rateContext
62%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
36%
452
PassesContext
274
378
Accurate passesContext
193
84%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.58
8.20
FoulsContext
10.90
15.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Benfica
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,890 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
AVS
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Benfica |
AVS |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 13 Feb | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 15 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,890 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Benfica
Confirmed XI
1A. Trubin(G)
62Jose Neto
30N. Otamendi
4António Silva
6A. Bah
5E. Barrenechea
20Richard Ríos
21A. Schjelderup
27Rafa
15Sidny Lopes Cabral
14V. Pavlidis
AVS
Confirmed XI
1Adriel
12Leonardo Rivas
3Paulo Vitor
42C. Devenish
97Mateus Pivô
70Roni
20Diego Duarte
27Ángel Algobia
23Gustavo Mendonça
11B. Akinsola
7Tómané
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Benfica+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- AVS+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Benfica · Home
2.27points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-0
- Scored
- 2.27
- Conceded
- 0.73
AVS · Away
0.20points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-8
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 3.10
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Benfica | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Alverca | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | L 1–3 H |
| Tondela | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Estrela | W 4–0 HW 1–0 A | L 0–3 A |
| Rio Ave | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Estoril | W 3–1 H | W 3–0 HL 1–3 A |
| SC Braga | D 2–2 A | L 0–4 HD 2–2 A |
| Famalicao | W 1–0 H | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Moreirense | W 4–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Sporting CP | D 1–1 H | L 0–6 A |
| Nacional | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Casa Pia | D 2–2 H | D 3–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Guimaraes | W 3–0 A | L 0–4 A |
| Arouca | W 5–0 H | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A |
| FC Porto | D 0–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| GIL Vicente | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 49 of 63 · 2.33 per game | 8 of 63 · 0.38 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Benfica wins1 draws0 AVS wins
Goals per game3.33 – 0.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 0%
- 20 Sep 2025AVS0–3Benfica
- 27 Apr 2025Benfica6–0AVS
- 15 Dec 2024AVS1–1Benfica
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Benfica | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.09 | 0.82 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.59 | 2.45 | |
| Match goals | 2.68 | 3.27 | 3.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 91% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 68% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 45% | 36% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 5% | |
| Failed to score | 9% | 50% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Benfica | AVS | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.50 | 3.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 36% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Benfica | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.52 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.33 | 5.42 | |
| Match total | 8.85 | 9.42 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 11/21 | 63% 12/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 8/21 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 24% 5/21 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.23 | 2.36 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.68 | |
| Match total | 5.23 | 5.04 | 5.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 16/22 | 64% 14/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 64% 14/22 | 59% 13/22 | |
| Benfica | AVS | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.30 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.40 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 9.78 | 9.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.50 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 5.50 | 5.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca Portugal · 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.57league 4.93
Red cards0.00league 0.29
Cards 5+86%league 59%
Fouls26.6league 27.0
Penalties0.43league 0.44
Home wins29%league 41%
BenficaNo previous matches with this referee.
AVS1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.5.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L3 Jan 26H · Moreirense0–25
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Benfica21 games · scored 41 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
9
1
16-30
10
3
31-45
9
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
9
4
76-90
AVS22 games · scored 18 · conceded 54
1
8
0-15
1
7
16-30
4
9
31-45
3
12
46-60
3
11
61-75
6
7
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
0-15
5
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
4
4
46-60
1
61-75
4
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 10 · conceded 25
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
7
46-60
2
5
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
