Benfica vs Celtic – 15 Oct 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 15 · 20:00 Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa

Benfica 12th · 3 pts · 1 played W

4–1Full time

Celtic 29th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Benfica were clear favourites.

Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 48). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Benfica. Celtic were without Camilo Duran and Yang Hyun-Jun. Benfica had 4.1 days of rest, Celtic 4.3 and had to travel 1,940 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel1,940 kmRest days4.1 · 4.3Matches / 14d1 · 1

Benfica74%

Draw15%

Celtic11%

Expected goals 2.64 – 0.94

Benfica67%

Draw19%

Celtic13%

Expected goals 2.14 – 0.84

Benfica73%

Draw15%

Celtic11%

Expected goals 2.64 – 0.96

Benfica66%

Draw18%

Celtic15%

Expected goals 2.36 – 1.06

Benfica72%

Draw16%

Celtic11%

Expected goals 2.49 – 0.89

Over 2.5 69% Both score 57% Likeliest score 2–0

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lisboa)

25°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 6 km/h
Humidity 57%

Referee · MontenegroNikola Dabanovic

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 14

Team strength

Benfica

Celtic

82 L90 StrengthIn forecast 48

82 Current StrengthIn forecast 52

81 AttackIn forecast 74

81 DefenceIn forecast 50

85 Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Benfica

Attack−2%

Defense risk+17%

Celtic

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Benfica

Celtic

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

2.09 xGVia Att/Def 2.88

0.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04

+0.91 Goals minus xGContext -0.88

100% Scored inContext 90%

50% Clean sheetsContext 40%

17.38 ShotsContext 18.80

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.30

35% On target shareContext 44%

12.25 Shots in the boxContext 13.40

70% Box shareContext 71%

17% ConversionContext 11%

2.50 OffsidesContext 1.63

8.50 Shots allowedContext 14.90

2.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

2.63 BlocksContext 4.30

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

71% Save rateContext 74%

61% PossessionIn forecast 59%

544 PassesContext 619

476 Accurate passesContext 546

88% Pass accuracyContext 88%

7.17 Team ratingContext 7.15

11.40 FoulsContext 10.90

16.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Benfica WWWLW

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 85 · 12 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected

W11 OctH · Guimaraes2–02.5 xPts
L20 SepA · FC Porto1–31.3 xPts
W16 SepA · AC Milan2–01.7 xPts
W13 SepH · GIL Vicente3–12.5 xPts
W9 SepA · Moreirense4–02.3 xPts

Celtic L

Rest4.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,940 km37 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 37 · 0 pts vs 1.5 for an average club · -1.5 vs expected

L17 SepH · Ferencvarosi TC1–31.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Benfica	Celtic
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 11 Oct	4.3Scottish Premiership 2026-2027, 11 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,940 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	37 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Benfica Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Trubin(G)

26S. Dahl 2C. Lenglet 44Tomás Araújo 6A. Bah

36João Palhinha 8F. Aursnes

25G. Prestianni 10H. Sudakov 11D. Lukébakio

22J. Durán

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Celtic Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1V. Sinisalo(G)

63K. Tierney 6A. Trusty 47D. Murray 51C. Donovan

22M. Baur 42C. McGregor

17S. Tounekti 18O. Sørensen 11Camilo Duran

9K. Høgh

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Benfica Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals

Attack line −5.5% · Defence line −3.7% of weighted minutes

MID E. Barrenechea Rotation 6.94 Att −3.0% Def −2.0%
MID J. Kamiński Rotation 7.25 Att −1.4% Def −0.9%
MID Daniel Banjaqui Rotation 7.19 Att −1.1% Def −0.8%

Celtic Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals

Attack line −30.9% · Defence line −1.7% of weighted minutes

ATT Camilo Duran Core 7.26 Att −21.5%
ATT Yang Hyun-Jun Starter 6.85 Att −9.3%
DEF C. Carter-Vickers Rotation 7.00 Def −1.2%
DEF A. Johnston Depth 6.67 Def −0.5%
ATT C. Osmand Depth 6.70 Att −0.1%

2 without recent minutes (no impact): Shumaira Mheuka, J. van den Berg

Total impact vs full squads

Benfica+0.4 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Celtic-0.3 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Benfica · Home No home games yet this season.

Celtic · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Benfica	Celtic	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.00
Conceded per game	0.00	3.00
Match goals	2.00	4.00	3.58
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	69%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	57%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Benfica	Celtic	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	2.00
Conceded per game	0.70	1.20
Match goals	3.70	3.20	3.58
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	70%	69%
Over 3.5	60%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	57%
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Failed to score	0%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Benfica	Celtic	League
Corners
Corners won	1.00	11.00
Corners conceded	9.00	3.00
Match total	10.00	14.00	9.67
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	5.00	0.00
Opponent cards	1.00	2.00
Match total	6.00	2.00	3.71
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	Benfica	Celtic	League
Corners
Corners won	5.75	9.00
Corners conceded	3.63	4.30
Match total	9.38	13.30	9.67
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	100% 10/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	90% 9/10
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	90% 9/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.00
Opponent cards	2.50	2.10
Match total	4.60	3.10	3.71
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Nikola Dabanovic Montenegro · 14 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.43league 3.58

Red cards0.07league 0.12

Cards 5+29%league 38%

Fouls22.1league 24.7

Penalties0.21league 0.23

Home wins64%league 38%

Benfica

No previous matches with this referee.

Celtic

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.