Benfica vs GIL Vicente – 26 Sep 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 7 Fri, Sep 26 · 20:15 Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa

Benfica 3rd · 14 pts · 6 played WWDWD

2–1Full time

GIL Vicente 4th · 13 pts · 6 played LDWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Benfica were clear favourites.

Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 29). Benfica had 3 days of rest, GIL Vicente 5.1 and had to travel 315 km.

Away travel315 kmRest days3 · 5.1Matches / 14d3 · 2

Benfica75%

Draw17%

GIL Vicente8%

Expected goals 2.41 – 0.70

Benfica75%

Draw16%

GIL Vicente9%

Expected goals 2.46 – 0.73

Benfica75%

Draw17%

GIL Vicente8%

Expected goals 2.41 – 0.70

Benfica68%

Draw20%

GIL Vicente12%

Expected goals 2.15 – 0.78

Benfica75%

Draw16%

GIL Vicente9%

Expected goals 2.46 – 0.73

Over 2.5 60% Both score 46% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lisboa)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalJoao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves

Cards per match 6.4
Penalties per match 1.00
Matches 5

Team strength

Benfica

GIL Vicente

78 L90 StrengthIn forecast 29

82 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

81 AttackIn forecast 32

81 DefenceIn forecast 50

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Benfica

Attack—

Defense risk—

GIL Vicente

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Benfica

GIL Vicente

1.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.17

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.33

2.00 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

0.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.89

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.14

100% Scored inContext 67%

50% Clean sheetsContext 83%

15.17 ShotsContext 13.83

5.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

37% On target shareContext 29%

10.33 Shots in the boxContext 8.67

68% Box shareContext 63%

12% ConversionContext 8%

1.80 OffsidesContext 1.75

9.17 Shots allowedContext 11.17

3.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

2.17 BlocksContext 2.40

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

90% Save rateContext 86%

65% PossessionIn forecast 45%

532 PassesContext 327

464 Accurate passesContext 255

87% Pass accuracyContext 78%

7.05 Team ratingContext 6.89

14.17 FoulsContext 14.33

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 14.67

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60

1.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.23

0.86 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.80

-0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

90% Scored inContext 80%

60% Clean sheetsContext 60%

14.90 ShotsContext 12.30

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

32% On target shareContext 29%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.44

62% Box shareContext 62%

11% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.86

9.30 Shots allowedContext 10.50

3.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.67

2.60 BlocksContext 2.44

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

84% Save rateContext 79%

60% PossessionIn forecast 45%

502 PassesContext 345

433 Accurate passesContext 271

86% Pass accuracyContext 79%

7.05 Team ratingContext 6.92

13.40 FoulsContext 13.60

13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 13.90

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Benfica

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

GIL Vicente

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel315 km33 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Benfica	GIL Vicente
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 23 Sep	5.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	315 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	33 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 4	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	9	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Benfica Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Trubin(G)

26S. Dahl 30N. Otamendi 4António Silva 17A. Dedić

8F. Aursnes 20Richard Ríos

21A. Schjelderup 10H. Sudakov 11D. Lukébakio

14V. Pavlidis

GIL Vicente Confirmed XI

4-3-3

42Andrew(G)

3G. Konan 39Jonathan Buatu 4M. Elimbi 2Zé Carlos

10Luís Esteves 5F. Cáseres 95Santi García

27Agustín Moreira 9Pablo 77Murilo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Benfica Absences are shown before kick-off

GIL Vicente Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Benfica+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
GIL Vicente+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Benfica · Home 1.67points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-0
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 0.67

GIL Vicente · Away 2.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

6 Benfica wins0 draws0 GIL Vicente wins

Goals per game3.17 – 0.67 Over 2.583% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

28 Mar 2025GIL Vicente0–3Benfica
28 Sep 2024Benfica5–1GIL Vicente
4 Feb 2024Benfica3–0GIL Vicente
26 Aug 2023GIL Vicente2–3Benfica
29 Apr 2023GIL Vicente0–2Benfica
13 Nov 2022Benfica3–1GIL Vicente

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Benfica	GIL Vicente	Forecast
Scored per game	1.83	1.17
Conceded per game	0.50	0.33
Match goals	2.33	1.50	3.11
Over 1.5	83%	67%
Over 2.5	50%	0%	60%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	0%	46%
Clean sheets	50%	83%
Failed to score	0%	33%
Games	6	6

	Benfica	GIL Vicente	Forecast
Scored per game	1.83	1.17
Conceded per game	0.50	0.33
Match goals	2.33	1.50	3.11
Over 1.5	83%	67%
Over 2.5	50%	0%	60%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	0%	46%
Clean sheets	50%	83%
Failed to score	0%	33%
Games	6	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Benfica	GIL Vicente	League
Corners
Corners won	5.67	5.40
Corners conceded	3.50	5.60
Match total	9.17	11.00	8.96
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	60% 3/5
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	60% 3/5
Over 10.5	33% 2/6	60% 3/5
Cards
Cards	2.67	2.50
Opponent cards	2.33	2.67
Match total	5.00	5.17	4.96
Over 3.5	67% 4/6	83% 5/6
Over 4.5	50% 3/6	50% 3/6

	Benfica	GIL Vicente	League
Corners
Corners won	5.60	4.78
Corners conceded	3.50	5.00
Match total	9.10	9.78	8.96
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.00
Opponent cards	2.30	2.40
Match total	4.70	4.40	4.96
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves Portugal · 5 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.40league 4.93

Red cards1.00league 0.19

Cards 5+80%league 59%

Fouls29.3league 28.0

Penalties1.00league 0.41

Home wins0%league 33%

Benfica1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

W3 May 25A · Estoril2–12

GIL Vicente

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.