Benfica vs Guimaraes – 21 Mar 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 27 Sat, Mar 21 · 18:00 Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa

Benfica 3rd · 62 pts · 26 played WWWDW

3–0Full time

Guimaraes 9th · 32 pts · 26 played WLDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Benfica were clear favourites.

Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 33). Benfica had 6.9 days of rest, Guimaraes 7.1 and had to travel 311 km.

Away travel311 kmRest days6.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Benfica74%

Draw16%

Guimaraes9%

Expected goals 2.49 – 0.78

Benfica73%

Draw17%

Guimaraes9%

Expected goals 2.39 – 0.75

Benfica74%

Draw16%

Guimaraes9%

Expected goals 2.49 – 0.78

Benfica68%

Draw20%

Guimaraes13%

Expected goals 2.22 – 0.87

Benfica75%

Draw16%

Guimaraes9%

Expected goals 2.56 – 0.81

Over 2.5 63% Both score 50% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lisboa)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalLuís Godinho

Cards per match 5.2
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 86

Team strength

Benfica

Guimaraes

79 L90 StrengthIn forecast 33

82 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

81 AttackIn forecast 28

81 DefenceIn forecast 39

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Benfica

Attack—

Defense risk—

Guimaraes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Benfica

Guimaraes

2.12 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.12

0.65 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

0.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28

+0.28 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

92% Scored inContext 65%

46% Clean sheetsContext 27%

16.50 ShotsContext 13.00

5.92 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.92

36% On target shareContext 30%

10.73 Shots in the boxContext 7.23

65% Box shareContext 56%

13% ConversionContext 9%

2.17 OffsidesContext 2.29

8.31 Shots allowedContext 11.08

3.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.42

2.35 BlocksContext 3.05

2.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

80% Save rateContext 68%

59% PossessionIn forecast 50%

481 PassesContext 374

409 Accurate passesContext 306

85% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.75

10.69 FoulsContext 14.65

15.50 Fouls sufferedContext 15.15

2.19 Yellow cardsContext 2.35

0.12 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 26 and 26 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

80% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

17.70 ShotsContext 13.60

6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

35% On target shareContext 34%

11.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.40

66% Box shareContext 62%

10% ConversionContext 10%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.43

10.80 Shots allowedContext 10.20

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

3.10 BlocksContext 2.63

3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

72% Save rateContext 59%

54% PossessionIn forecast 51%

432 PassesContext 395

356 Accurate passesContext 324

82% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.71

8.50 FoulsContext 16.30

15.90 Fouls sufferedContext 14.80

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Benfica

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km514 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Guimaraes

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel311 km3,083 km in 14d

Schedule load16%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Benfica	Guimaraes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 16
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 14 Mar	7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 14 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	311 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	514 km	3,083 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	0 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	16.1	13

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Benfica Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Trubin(G)

26S. Dahl 5E. Barrenechea 44Tomás Araújo 6A. Bah

18L. Barreiro 20Richard Ríos

21A. Schjelderup 10H. Sudakov 25G. Prestianni

14V. Pavlidis

Guimaraes Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

27Charles(G)

13J. Teixeira Mendes 28Thiago Balieiro 4Óscar Rivas 66T. Strata

16Beni 30Gonçalo Nogueira

19O. Camara 20Samu 88M. Nogueira

7Nélson Oliveira

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Benfica Absences are shown before kick-off

Guimaraes Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Benfica+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Guimaraes+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Benfica · Home 2.23points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 8-5-0
Scored: 2.31
Conceded: 0.77

Guimaraes · Away 0.83points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 3-1-8
Scored: 0.83
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Benfica	Guimaraes
Arouca	W 2–1 AW 5–0 H	L 2–3 AD 1–1 H
FC Porto	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A
GIL Vicente	W 2–1 AW 2–1 H	D 0–0 H
AVS	W 3–0 HW 3–0 A	W 4–0 H
Santa Clara	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H	L 0–2 AW 2–1 H
Alverca	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A
Tondela	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H	W 1–0 A
Estrela	W 4–0 HW 1–0 A	W 2–1 HW 2–0 A
Rio Ave	W 2–0 AD 1–1 H	W 1–0 A
Estoril	W 3–1 H	L 2–4 AW 3–2 H
SC Braga	D 2–2 A	L 2–3 AD 1–1 H
Famalicao	W 1–0 H	L 1–2 HL 0–2 A
Moreirense	W 4–0 A	W 1–0 HL 0–2 A
Sporting CP	D 1–1 H	L 1–4 H
Nacional	W 2–1 A	W 2–1 H
Casa Pia	D 2–2 H	D 0–0 A
Points	59 of 75 · 2.36 per game	32 of 75 · 1.28 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

5 Benfica wins2 draws0 Guimaraes wins

Goals per game2.57 – 0.43 Over 2.571% Both scored29% Clean sheets71% · 14%

1 Nov 2025Guimaraes0–3Benfica
19 Apr 2025Guimaraes0–3Benfica
7 Dec 2024Benfica1–0Guimaraes
11 Feb 2024Guimaraes2–2Benfica
2 Sep 2023Benfica4–0Guimaraes
18 Mar 2023Benfica5–1Guimaraes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Benfica	Guimaraes	Forecast
Scored per game	2.12	1.12
Conceded per game	0.65	1.50
Match goals	2.77	2.62	3.27
Over 1.5	85%	77%
Over 2.5	69%	46%	63%
Over 3.5	27%	23%
Both teams scored	54%	46%	50%
Clean sheets	46%	27%
Failed to score	8%	35%
Games	26	26

	Benfica	Guimaraes	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	1.30
Conceded per game	0.70	1.80
Match goals	2.90	3.10	3.27
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	60%	63%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	50%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Benfica	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	6.92	4.38
Corners conceded	2.36	3.42
Match total	9.28	7.80	9.20
Over 8.5	56% 14/25	46% 11/24
Over 9.5	44% 11/25	33% 8/24
Over 10.5	28% 7/25	17% 4/24
Cards
Cards	2.38	2.46
Opponent cards	3.08	2.88
Match total	5.46	5.34	5.17
Over 3.5	73% 19/26	73% 19/26
Over 4.5	65% 17/26	69% 18/26

	Benfica	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	8.00	4.50
Corners conceded	2.70	3.13
Match total	10.70	7.63	9.20
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	38% 3/8
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	13% 1/8
Cards
Cards	2.70	2.30
Opponent cards	3.80	2.20
Match total	6.50	4.50	5.17
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Luís Godinho Portugal · 86 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.98league 4.84

Red cards0.22league 0.27

Cards 5+59%league 59%

Fouls28.5league 27.0

Penalties0.30league 0.44

Home wins40%league 41%

Benfica9 with this referee

Record6-2-1 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.9 Pens for · against1 · 2

D1 Feb 26A · Tondela0–00
L4 Jan 25H · SC Braga1–24
W1 Dec 24A · Arouca2–03
D11 Feb 24A · Guimaraes2–24
W17 Dec 23A · SC Braga1–03

Guimaraes8 with this referee

Record3-2-3 Cards · opp.3.9 · 3.8 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds2

L26 Jan 25A · Estoril0–13
D6 Oct 24H · Boavista2–24
W15 Sep 24A · SC Braga2–03
W27 Apr 24H · Boavista1–03
D11 Feb 24H · Benfica2–25

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.