Benfica
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Benfica were clear favourites.
Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 62). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Benfica. Benfica had 9.1 days of rest, SC Braga 4 and had to travel 320 km.
Away travel320 kmRest days9.1 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 3
Benfica61%
Draw23%
SC Braga16%
Benfica57%
Draw24%
SC Braga19%
Benfica61%
Draw23%
SC Braga16%
Benfica54%
Draw25%
SC Braga21%
Benfica62%
Draw22%
SC Braga16%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalJoao Pedro Pinheiro
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 102
Team strength
Benfica
SC Braga
80
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
81
AttackIn forecast
42
81
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BenficaSC Braga
2.16
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.88
0.69
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
0.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
94%
Scored inContext
91%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
16.22
ShotsContext
11.34
5.72
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.63
35%
On target shareContext
41%
10.88
Shots in the boxContext
7.73
67%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
17%
2.09
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.00
Shots allowedContext
8.72
3.27
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.03
2.44
BlocksContext
2.50
2.66
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.17
79%
Save rateContext
69%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
472
PassesContext
595
400
Accurate passesContext
522
85%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.87
10.84
FoulsContext
11.31
15.63
Fouls sufferedContext
11.66
1.97
Yellow cardsContext
2.06
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
100%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.30
ShotsContext
8.30
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
30%
On target shareContext
43%
11.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
73%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
18%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.29
12.50
Shots allowedContext
10.40
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
2.90
BlocksContext
2.67
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
75%
Save rateContext
66%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
429
PassesContext
555
357
Accurate passesContext
480
83%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.10
FoulsContext
11.50
16.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Benfica
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km606 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
SC Braga
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel320 km2,934 km in 14d
Schedule load26%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Benfica |
SC Braga |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 26 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 May | 4UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 7 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 320 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 606 km | 2,934 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 7 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 4.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Benfica
Confirmed XI
1A. Trubin(G)
26S. Dahl
4António Silva
44Tomás Araújo
17A. Dedić
18L. Barreiro
8F. Aursnes
21A. Schjelderup
27Rafa
25G. Prestianni
9F. Ivanović
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
5Leonardo Lelo
6Vitor Carvalho
14G. Lagerbielke
77Gabri Martínez
34D. Tıknaz
8João Moutinho
2Víctor Gómez
18Pau Víctor
29Jean-Baptiste Gorby
39Fran Navarro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Benfica
Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Benfica+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Benfica · Home
2.38points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-5-0
- Scored
- 2.44
- Conceded
- 0.69
SC Braga · Away
1.75points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-4-4
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Benfica | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Famalicao | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Moreirense | W 4–1 HW 4–0 A | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Sporting CP | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Nacional | W 2–0 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Casa Pia | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Guimaraes | W 3–0 HW 3–0 A | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Arouca | W 2–1 AW 5–0 H | W 1–0 HW 4–0 A |
| FC Porto | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| GIL Vicente | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| AVS | W 3–0 HW 3–0 A | W 4–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Santa Clara | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Alverca | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | W 5–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Tondela | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Estrela | W 4–0 HW 1–0 A | D 3–3 A |
| Rio Ave | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | W 3–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Estoril | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 75 of 93 · 2.42 per game | 56 of 93 · 1.81 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 Benfica wins2 draws2 SC Braga wins
Goals per game1.29 – 1.29
Over 2.557%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets29% · 14%
- 28 Dec 2025SC Braga2–2Benfica
- 17 May 2025SC Braga1–1Benfica
- 4 Jan 2025Benfica1–2SC Braga
- 27 Apr 2024Benfica3–1SC Braga
- 17 Dec 2023SC Braga0–1Benfica
- 6 May 2023Benfica1–0SC Braga
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Benfica | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.16 | 1.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.69 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.84 | 2.88 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 66% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 34% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 53% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 6% | 9% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Benfica | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.70 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Benfica | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.26 | 5.36 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.65 | 3.21 | |
| Match total | 9.91 | 8.57 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 20/31 | 46% 13/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 17/31 | 32% 9/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 12/31 | 32% 9/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.16 | 2.16 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.91 | 2.59 | |
| Match total | 5.07 | 4.75 | 5.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 22/32 | 75% 24/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 59% 19/32 | 56% 18/32 | |
| Benfica | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.50 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 12.10 | 8.00 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 90% 9/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 5.60 | 5.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joao Pedro Pinheiro Portugal · 102 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.46league 4.83
Red cards0.22league 0.24
Cards 5+47%league 58%
Fouls25.5league 26.8
Penalties0.28league 0.43
Home wins41%league 41%
Benfica17 with this referee
Record10-4-3
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.2
Pens for · against4 · 1
Reds3
- W19 Apr 26A · Sporting CP2–11
- D8 Mar 26H · FC Porto2–24
- W1 Nov 25A · Guimaraes3–04
- D12 Sep 25H · Santa Clara1–11
- D10 May 25H · Sporting CP1–14
SC Braga10 with this referee
Record6-2-2
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.1
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- W21 Feb 26H · Guimaraes3–22
- W9 Nov 25H · Moreirense2–13
- W19 Apr 25A · Estoril2–00
- L6 Oct 24A · FC Porto1–22
- L27 Apr 24A · Benfica1–34
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Benfica31 games · scored 64 · conceded 22
7
4
0-15
13
2
16-30
12
4
31-45
11
3
46-60
7
3
61-75
14
6
76-90
SC Braga32 games · scored 60 · conceded 32
10
2
0-15
15
7
16-30
11
8
31-45
6
3
46-60
6
6
61-75
12
6
76-90
Benfica10 games · scored 21 · conceded 11
6
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
