Benfica
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Benfica61.2%fair odds 1.63
Draw22.5%fair odds 4.44
SC Braga16.3%fair odds 6.13
Expected goals1.94 – 0.90total 2.85
Likeliest score2–011.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
SC Braga
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Benfica ↓ · SC Braga → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Benfica goals, columns SC Braga goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.0%9.12
- 1–010.7%9.30
- 1–110.7%9.32
- 2–19.9%10.10
- 3–07.1%14.08
- 3–16.4%15.60
- 0–06.4%15.75
- 0–14.7%21.26
- 1–24.6%21.74
- 2–24.5%22.38
Winning margin
18.2%
Benfica by 3+
fair 5.49
19.0%
Benfica by 2
fair 5.27
24.0%
Benfica by 1
fair 4.17
22.5%
Draw
fair 4.44
10.9%
SC Braga by 1
fair 9.21
4.1%
SC Braga by 2
fair 24.43
1.4%
SC Braga by 3+
fair 73.74
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Benfica goals
14%0
28%1
27%2
18%3
13%4+
SC Braga goals
41%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica win | 61.2% | 61.6% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 22.5% | 22.3% | +0.3 pp |
| SC Braga win | 16.3% | 16.1% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.1% | 54.8% | -0.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.5% | 51.8% | -0.3 pp |
| Expected goals Benfica | 1.94 | 1.97 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals SC Braga | 0.90 | 0.91 | -0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Benfica win61.2%1.63
- Draw22.5%4.44
- SC Braga win16.3%6.13
- Double chance Benfica or draw83.7%1.19
- Double chance Benfica or SC Braga77.5%1.29
- Double chance SC Braga or draw38.8%2.58
- Draw no bet Benfica78.9%1.27
- Draw no bet SC Braga21.1%4.75
Goals
- Over 0.593.6%1.07
- Over 1.578.2%1.28
- Over 2.554.1%1.85
- Over 3.531.8%3.14
- Over 4.515.9%6.27
- Under 1.521.8%4.59
- Under 2.545.9%2.18
- Under 3.568.2%1.47
Both teams to score
- Yes51.5%1.94
- No48.5%2.06
- Yes and over 2.540.7%2.45
- Benfica win and yes27.0%3.71
- Draw and yes16.2%6.18
- SC Braga win and yes8.3%12.00
Team goals
- Benfica over 0.585.7%1.17
- Benfica over 1.557.8%1.73
- Benfica over 2.530.8%3.25
- SC Braga over 0.559.5%1.68
- SC Braga over 1.522.9%4.38
- SC Braga over 2.56.3%15.80
- Benfica clean sheet40.5%2.47
- SC Braga clean sheet14.3%6.98
- Benfica win to nil34.2%2.92
- SC Braga win to nil8.0%12.53
Handicap
- Benfica −1.537.2%2.69
- Benfica −2.518.2%5.49
- SC Braga +1.562.8%1.59
- SC Braga +2.581.8%1.22
- SC Braga −1.55.4%18.35
- Benfica +1.594.6%1.06
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored290
Favourite won57.2%
Avg chance given to result43.7%
1X2 Brier0.547
Over 2.5 called right56.2%
BTTS called right51.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 54 | 37.6% | 42.6% |
| 40–50% | 93 | 44.8% | 44.1% |
| 50–60% | 59 | 54.6% | 57.6% |
| 60–70% | 41 | 65.0% | 78.0% |
| 70–80% | 33 | 75.2% | 81.8% |
| 80%+ | 10 | 83.9% | 90.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 233 of 290 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5325 | 0.5247 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.6% | 46.2% |
| Favourite won | 60.5% | 59.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 233 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 290 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.