Besiktas vs Kayserispor – 19 Jan 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 18 Mon, Jan 19 · 17:00 Tüpraş Stadyumu, İstanbul

Besiktas 5th · 29 pts · 17 played DWDDW

1–0Full time

Kayserispor 16th · 15 pts · 17 played LWDDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Besiktas were clear favourites.

Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 16). Besiktas had 30 days of rest, Kayserispor 30.2 and had to travel 613 km.

Away travel613 kmRest days30 · 30.2Matches / 14d0 · 0

Besiktas62%

Draw22%

Kayserispor16%

Expected goals 2.02 – 0.92

Besiktas62%

Draw22%

Kayserispor16%

Expected goals 1.97 – 0.91

Besiktas62%

Draw22%

Kayserispor16%

Expected goals 2.00 – 0.91

Besiktas55%

Draw24%

Kayserispor21%

Expected goals 1.80 – 1.03

Besiktas62%

Draw22%

Kayserispor16%

Expected goals 1.99 – 0.92

Over 2.5 56% Both score 53% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeOzan Ergun

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 13

Team strength

Besiktas

Kayserispor

39 L90 StrengthIn forecast 16

48 Current StrengthIn forecast 13

60 AttackIn forecast 16

48 DefenceIn forecast 17

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Besiktas

Attack—

Defense risk—

Kayserispor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Besiktas

Kayserispor

1.76 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.94

1.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.94

1.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.00

1.01 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

88% Scored inContext 71%

24% Clean sheetsContext 12%

14.76 ShotsContext 11.12

5.76 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.94

39% On target shareContext 35%

10.41 Shots in the boxContext 6.18

72% Box shareContext 55%

12% ConversionContext 9%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.53 Shots allowedContext 13.41

4.06 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.24

3.31 BlocksContext 3.46

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.21

71% Save rateContext 71%

52% PossessionIn forecast 48%

403 PassesContext 355

331 Accurate passesContext 285

82% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.68

12.65 FoulsContext 12.53

10.88 Fouls sufferedContext 12.65

2.35 Yellow cardsContext 2.47

0.18 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 17 and 17 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.08

0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.02

100% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

15.00 ShotsContext 10.90

5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

39% On target shareContext 39%

9.80 Shots in the boxContext 6.00

66% Box shareContext 54%

12% ConversionContext 10%

2.43 OffsidesContext 1.88

14.50 Shots allowedContext 14.70

4.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

4.00 BlocksContext 4.38

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.13

77% Save rateContext 73%

51% PossessionIn forecast 46%

399 PassesContext 355

326 Accurate passesContext 287

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.71

11.30 FoulsContext 12.30

10.90 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Besiktas

Rest30 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Kayserispor

Rest30.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel613 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Besiktas	Kayserispor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	30Süper Lig 2025-2026, 20 Dec	30.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 20 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	613 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7	4.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Besiktas Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30E. Destanoğlu(G)

33R. Yılmaz 53E. Topçu 14O. Uduokhai 25G. Sazdagi

10O. Kökçü 17K. Yılmaz

19E. Touré 7M. Rashica 18V. Černý

9T. Abraham

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Kayserispor Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25B. Bayazıt(G)

28R. Civelek 4S. Denswil 15Y. Aït Bennasser 30A. Opoku

8L. Bénes 33F. Soyalp

7Miguel Cardoso 10João Mendes 20Carlos Mané

9G. Onugkha

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Besiktas Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Kayserispor Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Besiktas+0.1 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Kayserispor+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Besiktas · Home 1.75points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 4-2-2
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 1.38

Kayserispor · Away 1.00points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 1-6-2
Scored: 1.11
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Besiktas	Kayserispor
Rizespor	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 A
Trabzonspor	D 3–3 A	L 0–4 A
Gazişehir Gaziantep	D 2–2 H	L 0–3 H
Fatih Karagümrük	W 2–0 A	D 2–2 A
Samsunspor	D 1–1 H	L 1–3 H
Antalyaspor	W 3–1 A	D 1–1 A
Fenerbahce	L 2–3 H	L 2–4 A
Kasimpasa	D 1–1 A	W 3–2 H
Konyaspor	W 2–0 A	D 1–1 A
Genclerbirligi	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 H
Galatasaray	D 1–1 A	L 0–4 H
Kocaelispor	W 3–1 H	D 1–1 A
Goztepe	L 0–3 A	D 1–1 H
Istanbul Basaksehir	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 A
Alanyaspor	L 0–2 A	D 0–0 H
Eyüpspor	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 A
Points	26 of 48 · 1.63 per game	15 of 48 · 0.94 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

4 Besiktas wins1 draws0 Kayserispor wins

Goals per game2.20 – 0.20 Over 2.560% Both scored20% Clean sheets80% · 20%

24 Sep 2025Kayserispor0–4Besiktas
1 Mar 2025Besiktas2–0Kayserispor
30 Sep 2024Kayserispor0–3Besiktas
12 Feb 2024Kayserispor0–0Besiktas
24 Sep 2023Besiktas2–1Kayserispor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Besiktas	Kayserispor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.76	0.94
Conceded per game	1.29	1.94
Match goals	3.06	2.88	2.94
Over 1.5	94%	88%
Over 2.5	59%	47%	56%
Over 3.5	35%	41%
Both teams scored	65%	65%	53%
Clean sheets	24%	12%
Failed to score	12%	29%
Games	17	17

	Besiktas	Kayserispor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.10
Conceded per game	1.30	2.00
Match goals	3.10	3.10	2.94
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	56%
Over 3.5	40%	50%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	53%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	0%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Besiktas	Kayserispor	League
Corners
Corners won	5.38	4.20
Corners conceded	4.88	4.87
Match total	10.26	9.07	9.35
Over 8.5	69% 11/16	60% 9/15
Over 9.5	50% 8/16	40% 6/15
Over 10.5	38% 6/16	27% 4/15
Cards
Cards	2.53	2.53
Opponent cards	2.71	2.06
Match total	5.24	4.59	4.62
Over 3.5	82% 14/17	76% 13/17
Over 4.5	53% 9/17	47% 8/17

	Besiktas	Kayserispor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.44	3.56
Corners conceded	5.44	4.44
Match total	9.88	8.00	9.35
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.30
Opponent cards	2.70	1.80
Match total	5.20	4.10	4.62
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ozan Ergun Türkiye · 13 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.38league 4.38

Red cards0.38league 0.24

Cards 5+38%league 45%

Fouls22.9league 25.7

Penalties0.15league 0.25

Home wins62%league 36%

Besiktas2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W22 Oct 25A · Konyaspor2–03
D19 Apr 25A · Goztepe1–11

Kayserispor1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L9 Nov 25A · Fenerbahce2–43

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.