Bologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bologna were slight favourites.
Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 34). Bologna had 5.8 days of rest, Genoa 4.8 and had to travel 190 km.
Away travel190 kmRest days5.8 · 4.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Bologna55%
Draw25%
Genoa20%
Bologna56%
Draw24%
Genoa20%
Bologna55%
Draw25%
Genoa19%
Bologna47%
Draw27%
Genoa25%
Bologna56%
Draw24%
Genoa20%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bologna)
No weather data yet
RefereeGiuseppe Collu
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 11
Team strength
Bologna
Genoa
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
35
AttackIn forecast
23
48
DefenceIn forecast
44
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BolognaGenoa
0.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.33
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
0.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.77
33%
Scored inContext
33%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
10.00
ShotsContext
8.33
2.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
13%
On target shareContext
36%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
62%
Box shareContext
55%
3%
ConversionContext
4%
1.67
OffsidesContext
—
13.33
Shots allowedContext
11.00
2.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.67
BlocksContext
5.33
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
75%
Save rateContext
71%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
380
PassesContext
382
306
Accurate passesContext
298
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.82
13.67
FoulsContext
15.33
16.67
Fouls sufferedContext
13.67
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.82
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
60%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.30
ShotsContext
7.40
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
24%
On target shareContext
38%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
5.44
60%
Box shareContext
66%
6%
ConversionContext
12%
2.10
OffsidesContext
1.00
9.00
Shots allowedContext
13.40
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.00
BlocksContext
4.30
2.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
68%
Save rateContext
73%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
412
PassesContext
369
341
Accurate passesContext
291
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.50
FoulsContext
14.60
17.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bologna
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km401 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genoa
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel190 km313 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bologna |
Genoa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Sep | 4.8Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 190 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 401 km | 313 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.3 | 9.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bologna
Confirmed XI
1Ł. Skorupski(G)
33Juan Miranda
14T. Heggem
41M. Vitík
29L. De Silvestri
8R. Freuler
6N. Moro
30B. Domínguez
10F. Bernardeschi
7R. Orsolini
9S. Castro
Genoa
Confirmed XI
1N. Leali(G)
3Aarón Martín
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
15B. Norton-Cuffy
32M. Frendrup
73P. Masini
9Vítinha
17R. Malinovskyi
77M. Ellertsson
29L. Colombo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bologna
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genoa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bologna-0.5 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Genoa+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Bologna · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Genoa · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Bologna | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Como | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Bologna wins3 draws2 Genoa wins
Goals per game1.17 – 1.67
Over 2.550%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets17% · 17%
- 24 May 2025Bologna1–3Genoa
- 19 Oct 2024Genoa2–2Bologna
- 24 May 2024Genoa2–0Bologna
- 5 Jan 2024Bologna1–1Genoa
- 21 May 2022Genoa0–1Bologna
- 21 Sep 2021Bologna2–2Genoa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bologna | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Bologna | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bologna | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 8.00 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.00 | 3.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Bologna | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 3.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 7.29 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 10.72 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.30 | 3.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Giuseppe Collu 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.73league 3.68
Red cards0.00league 0.10
Cards 5+18%league 39%
Fouls25.8league 26.0
Penalties0.00league 0.16
Home wins36%league 42%
Bologna1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W2 Nov 24H · Lecce1–02
Genoa3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.1.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L5 May 25H · AC Milan1–21
- L2 Feb 25A · Fiorentina1–21
- L10 Dec 23A · Monza0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bologna3 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Genoa3 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 7 · conceded 14
3
0-15
3
16-30
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
5
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
