Bologna
Attack−17%
Defense risk+74%
Our take
Inter were slight favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 49). Bologna were without A. Theate. Inter were without Lautaro Martínez. Bologna had 6.1 days of rest, Inter 3.9 and had to travel 201 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel201 kmRest days6.1 · 3.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Bologna21%
Draw22%
Inter57%
Bologna22%
Draw25%
Inter53%
Bologna21%
Draw22%
Inter57%
Bologna16%
Draw20%
Inter65%
Bologna22%
Draw21%
Inter57%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bologna)
21°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 11 km/h
- Humidity 54%
Referee · ItalyDaniele Doveri
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 87
Team strength
Bologna
Inter
49
L90 StrengthIn forecast
83
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
35
AttackIn forecast
91
48
DefenceIn forecast
73
32
Form indexContext
59
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisInter
Attack−6%
Defense risk−9%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
BolognaInter
0.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
1.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
2.52
0.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
50%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
12.83
ShotsContext
22.33
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.17
27%
On target shareContext
32%
8.83
Shots in the boxContext
15.83
67%
Box shareContext
71%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.80
13.17
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
4.17
BlocksContext
2.83
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
68%
Save rateContext
67%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
451
PassesContext
605
394
Accurate passesContext
544
87%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.75
Team ratingContext
7.22
13.33
FoulsContext
7.67
13.33
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.60
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
2.64
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
60%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.10
ShotsContext
21.00
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.00
31%
On target shareContext
33%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
15.00
62%
Box shareContext
72%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.86
12.10
Shots allowedContext
11.50
3.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
3.70
BlocksContext
2.80
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
62%
Save rateContext
65%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
451
PassesContext
582
390
Accurate passesContext
524
87%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.05
12.60
FoulsContext
8.50
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bologna
LDLDW
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,450 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 32 · 5 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -2.4 vs expected
Inter
LWDWL
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel201 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 59 · 7 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bologna |
Inter |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Serie A 2026-2027, 11 Oct | 3.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 13 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 201 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,450 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 2 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bologna
Confirmed XI
1Ł. Skorupski(G)
3A. Theate
16N. Casale
36M. Darmian
33Juan Miranda
4T. Pobega
19L. Ferguson
20N. Zortea
28N. Cambiaghi
10F. Bernardeschi
91R. Piccoli
Inter
Confirmed XI
1Josep Martínez(G)
95A. Bastoni
25M. Akanji
31Y. Bisseck
32F. Dimarco
8P. Sučić
7P. Zieliński
23N. Barella
11L. de Lima
94F. Esposito
9M. Thuram
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bologna
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals
Attack line −14.9% · Defence line −14.8% of weighted minutes
- DEF A. Theate Starter 6.53 Def −12.4%
- ATT R. Orsolini Rotation 6.78 Att −8.4%
- ATT J. Odgaard Rotation 6.61 Att −6.2%
- DEF E. Holm Rotation 6.77 Def −2.4%
- ATT S. Mbangula Depth 6.35 Att −0.3%
Inter
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −28.4% · Defence line −6.8% of weighted minutes
- ATT Lautaro Martínez Core 7.20 Att −25.8%
- MID C. Jones Rotation 6.72 Att −2.6% Def −1.7%
- DEF B. Pavard Rotation 6.84 Def −3.2%
- DEF J. Stones Rotation 6.75 Def −1.8%
Total impact vs full squads
- Bologna+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Inter-0.1 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Bologna · Home
0.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Inter · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Bologna | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Napoli | L 0–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
3 Bologna wins3 draws4 Inter wins
Goals per game1.40 – 2.40
Over 2.570%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets20% · 10%
- 23 May 2026Bologna3–3Inter
- 4 Jan 2026Inter3–1Bologna
- 20 Apr 2025Bologna1–0Inter
- 15 Jan 2025Inter2–2Bologna
- 9 Mar 2024Bologna0–1Inter
- 7 Oct 2023Inter2–2Bologna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bologna | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.33 | 3.28 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 83% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Bologna | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 4.40 | 3.28 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bologna | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 9.34 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 3.00 | 3.37 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Bologna | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 6.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 9.50 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.20 | 3.37 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Daniele Doveri Italy · 87 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.22league 3.24
Red cards0.18league 0.06
Cards 5+25%league 27%
Fouls24.3league 21.6
Penalties0.21league 0.13
Home wins28%league 48%
Bologna8 with this referee
Record3-3-2
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L31 Aug 26A · Atalanta0–10
- L18 Jan 26H · Fiorentina1–23
- W30 Aug 25H · Como1–04
- D4 May 25H · Juventus1–11
- D19 Oct 24A · Genoa2–20
Inter15 with this referee
Record5-6-4
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.2
Pens for · against3 · 1
- L8 Mar 26A · AC Milan0–12
- D11 Jan 26H · Napoli2–20
- W14 Dec 25A · Genoa2–13
- W2 Nov 25A · Verona2–11
- D5 Apr 25A · Parma2–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bologna6 games · scored 5 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Inter6 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
3
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 26 · conceded 18
3
3
0-15
3
5
16-30
3
2
31-45
6
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
8
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
