Bologna vs Juventus – 14 Dec 2025

Serie A Gameweek 15 Sun, Dec 14 · 19:45 Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna

Bologna 5th · 25 pts · 14 played WWWLD

0–1Full time

Juventus 7th · 23 pts · 14 played WDDWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Bologna had 3 days of rest, Juventus 7 and had to travel 295 km.

Away travel295 kmRest days3 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 1

Bologna39%

Draw28%

Juventus33%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.22

Bologna40%

Draw27%

Juventus32%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.25

Bologna40%

Draw28%

Juventus32%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.19

Bologna32%

Draw28%

Juventus40%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.37

Bologna40%

Draw27%

Juventus33%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.28

Over 2.5 48% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bologna)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyDavide Massa

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 99

Team strength

Bologna

Juventus

62 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

47 Current StrengthIn forecast 64

35 AttackIn forecast 57

48 DefenceIn forecast 76

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bologna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Juventus

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bologna

Juventus

1.64 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29

0.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.37 xGVia Att/Def 1.33

1.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.88

+0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

79% Scored inContext 71%

43% Clean sheetsContext 29%

13.57 ShotsContext 15.36

4.54 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.14

31% On target shareContext 34%

8.79 Shots in the boxContext 9.36

63% Box shareContext 59%

12% ConversionContext 8%

2.58 OffsidesContext 1.73

9.79 Shots allowedContext 10.36

3.46 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.93

2.83 BlocksContext 2.79

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

75% Save rateContext 68%

57% PossessionIn forecast 58%

425 PassesContext 506

354 Accurate passesContext 441

83% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.90

14.00 FoulsContext 13.14

14.14 Fouls sufferedContext 10.79

1.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.64

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 14 and 14 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.72 xGVia Att/Def 1.82

1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.82

+0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.32

80% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

15.70 ShotsContext 17.20

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.70

32% On target shareContext 39%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.50

66% Box shareContext 63%

12% ConversionContext 9%

2.63 OffsidesContext 2.00

9.30 Shots allowedContext 9.80

3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.90

2.50 BlocksContext 3.40

3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

73% Save rateContext 79%

55% PossessionIn forecast 56%

425 PassesContext 516

355 Accurate passesContext 451

83% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.95

13.40 FoulsContext 14.00

14.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bologna

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km3,883 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Juventus

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel295 km1,423 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bologna	Juventus
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 33	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec	7Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	295 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,883 km	1,423 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	13.9	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bologna Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13F. Ravaglia(G)

33Juan Miranda 26J. Lucumí 14T. Heggem 20N. Zortea

4T. Pobega 6N. Moro

28N. Cambiaghi 19L. Ferguson 7R. Orsolini

24T. Dallinga

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Juventus Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

16M. Di Gregorio(G)

8T. Koopmeiners 6L. Kelly 15P. Kalulu

27A. Cambiaso 19K. Thuram 5M. Locatelli 22W. McKennie

10K. Yıldız 7Francisco Conceição

30J. David

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bologna Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Juventus Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bologna-0.6 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Juventus+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Bologna · Home 2.17points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 4-1-1
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 0.67

Juventus · Away 1.14points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-3
Scored: 0.86
Conceded: 1.14

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 11 this season

Opponent	Bologna	Juventus
Lazio	D 1–1 A	L 0–1 A
Cremonese	L 1–3 H	W 2–1 A
Udinese	W 3–0 A	W 3–1 H
Napoli	W 2–0 H	L 1–2 A
Parma	W 3–1 A	W 2–0 H
Torino	D 0–0 H	D 0–0 H
Fiorentina	D 2–2 A	D 1–1 A
Cagliari	W 2–0 A	W 2–1 H
Genoa	W 2–1 H	W 1–0 A
AC Milan	L 0–1 A	D 0–0 H
Como	W 1–0 H	L 0–2 A
Points	21 of 33 · 1.91 per game	18 of 33 · 1.64 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

0 Bologna wins6 draws2 Juventus wins

Goals per game1.13 – 1.75 Over 2.538% Both scored75% Clean sheets0% · 25%

4 May 2025Bologna1–1Juventus
7 Dec 2024Juventus2–2Bologna
20 May 2024Bologna3–3Juventus
27 Aug 2023Juventus1–1Bologna
30 Apr 2023Bologna1–1Juventus
2 Oct 2022Juventus3–0Bologna

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bologna	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	1.64	1.29
Conceded per game	0.86	1.00
Match goals	2.50	2.29	2.58
Over 1.5	71%	71%
Over 2.5	50%	36%	48%
Over 3.5	36%	14%
Both teams scored	43%	57%	53%
Clean sheets	43%	29%
Failed to score	21%	29%
Games	14	14

	Bologna	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.00
Conceded per game	0.90	1.00
Match goals	2.70	2.00	2.58
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	48%
Over 3.5	40%	10%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	53%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bologna	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	5.43	4.75
Corners conceded	4.00	4.58
Match total	9.43	9.33	8.84
Over 8.5	64% 9/14	42% 5/12
Over 9.5	50% 7/14	42% 5/12
Over 10.5	36% 5/14	33% 4/12
Cards
Cards	1.93	1.71
Opponent cards	2.71	2.36
Match total	4.64	4.07	3.99
Over 3.5	71% 10/14	57% 8/14
Over 4.5	57% 8/14	43% 6/14

	Bologna	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	5.78	5.75
Corners conceded	4.44	4.38
Match total	10.22	10.13	8.84
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.70
Opponent cards	2.50	2.20
Match total	4.40	3.90	3.99
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Davide Massa Italy · 99 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.54league 3.85

Red cards0.23league 0.16

Cards 5+49%league 37%

Fouls25.1league 25.9

Penalties0.15league 0.32

Home wins35%league 40%

Bologna6 with this referee

Record3-3-0 Cards · opp.2.3 · 4.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

D7 Apr 25H · Napoli1–11
W22 Sep 24A · Monza2–12
D27 Jan 24A · AC Milan2–23
D15 Apr 23H · AC Milan1–13
W1 Nov 21H · Cagliari2–03

Juventus8 with this referee

Record5-3-0 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.1 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds2

D10 May 25A · Lazio1–15
W18 Jan 25H · AC Milan2–00
W22 Dec 24A · Monza2–11
D15 Dec 23A · Genoa1–13
W7 Oct 23H · Torino2–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.