Bologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bologna were clear favourites.
Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 30). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Bologna. Bologna had 4.7 days of rest, Parma 6.7 and had to travel 87 km.
Away travel87 kmRest days4.7 · 6.7Matches / 14d3 · 2
Bologna61%
Draw22%
Parma16%
Bologna57%
Draw24%
Parma19%
Bologna61%
Draw23%
Parma17%
Bologna54%
Draw25%
Parma22%
Bologna62%
Draw21%
Parma17%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bologna)
No weather data yet
RefereeGiuseppe Collu
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 19
Team strength
Bologna
Parma
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
35
AttackIn forecast
20
48
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BolognaParma
1.39
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.65
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
74%
Scored inContext
48%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.91
ShotsContext
10.87
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
30%
On target shareContext
25%
8.32
Shots in the boxContext
6.55
62%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
6%
2.41
OffsidesContext
1.50
10.48
Shots allowedContext
14.39
4.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.43
2.95
BlocksContext
4.32
2.95
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.18
69%
Save rateContext
69%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
425
PassesContext
345
352
Accurate passesContext
273
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.76
13.78
FoulsContext
10.43
14.17
Fouls sufferedContext
13.96
2.04
Yellow cardsContext
1.61
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
0.77
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
80%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.90
ShotsContext
11.30
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.67
30%
On target shareContext
21%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
63%
Box shareContext
57%
9%
ConversionContext
5%
2.71
OffsidesContext
1.33
10.50
Shots allowedContext
15.70
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.57
BlocksContext
4.80
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
63%
Save rateContext
68%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
436
PassesContext
371
364
Accurate passesContext
304
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.78
13.80
FoulsContext
10.10
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bologna
Rest4.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,713 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Parma
Rest6.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel87 km225 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bologna |
Parma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.7Serie A 2025-2026, 3 Feb | 6.7Serie A 2025-2026, 1 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 87 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,713 km | 225 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 6 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bologna
Confirmed XI
1Ł. Skorupski(G)
22C. Lykogiannis
26J. Lucumí
14T. Heggem
17João Mário
4T. Pobega
8R. Freuler
19L. Ferguson
11J. Rowe
24T. Dallinga
10F. Bernardeschi
Parma
Confirmed XI
40E. Corvi(G)
39A. Circati
37Mariano Troilo
15E. Delprato
14E. Valeri
22O. Sørensen
16L. Keita
10Adrián Bernabé
27Sascha Britschgi
9Mateo Pellegrino
21G. Oristanio
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bologna
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Parma
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bologna+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Parma-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Bologna · Home
1.27points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-5
- Scored
- 1.09
- Conceded
- 1.18
Parma · Away
1.18points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-4
- Scored
- 0.64
- Conceded
- 1.18
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Bologna | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | L 0–3 HL 0–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Genoa | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Fiorentina | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Verona | W 3–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Como | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Atalanta | L 0–2 H | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H |
| Inter | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Sassuolo | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Juventus | L 0–1 H | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A |
| Lazio | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Cremonese | L 1–3 H | D 0–0 A |
| Udinese | W 3–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Napoli | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Torino | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Cagliari | W 2–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Pisa | W 4–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Lecce | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 27 of 66 · 1.23 per game | 23 of 66 · 1.05 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Bologna wins1 draws1 Parma wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 67%
- 2 Nov 2025Parma1–3Bologna
- 22 Feb 2025Parma2–0Bologna
- 6 Oct 2024Bologna0–0Parma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bologna | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.39 | 0.65 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 1.96 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 61% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 35% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 39% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 52% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Bologna | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 1.90 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 30% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bologna | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.68 | 3.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.09 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 8.77 | 8.53 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 11/22 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 8/22 | 38% 8/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 6/22 | 33% 7/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.22 | 1.74 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.26 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 4.48 | 3.91 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 15/23 | 65% 15/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 13/23 | 39% 9/23 | |
| Bologna | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 8.78 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.00 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Giuseppe Collu 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.83
Red cards0.05league 0.17
Cards 5+26%league 36%
Fouls24.1league 25.6
Penalties0.26league 0.32
Home wins47%league 38%
Bologna2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W20 Sep 25H · Genoa2–11
- W2 Nov 24H · Lecce1–02
Parma1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W29 Sep 25H · Torino2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bologna23 games · scored 32 · conceded 30
3
0-15
5
2
16-30
8
7
31-45
9
5
46-60
4
8
61-75
6
5
76-90
Parma23 games · scored 15 · conceded 30
1
6
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
6
61-75
3
8
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
5
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 6 · conceded 13
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
