Bologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bologna were clear favourites.
Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 15). Bologna usually keep the ball (56% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Bologna had 2.8 days of rest, Pisa 7 and had to travel 115 km.
Away travel115 kmRest days2.8 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2
Bologna72%
Draw19%
Pisa10%
Bologna72%
Draw18%
Pisa10%
Bologna71%
Draw19%
Pisa10%
Bologna65%
Draw22%
Pisa13%
Bologna73%
Draw17%
Pisa10%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bologna)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyRosario Abisso
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 43
Team strength
Bologna
Pisa
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
15
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
35
AttackIn forecast
15
48
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BolognaPisa
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
0.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.42
60%
Scored inContext
40%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.60
ShotsContext
11.20
3.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
26%
On target shareContext
25%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
67%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
5%
2.60
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.60
Shots allowedContext
15.20
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.00
BlocksContext
5.00
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
73%
Save rateContext
73%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
410
PassesContext
296
334
Accurate passesContext
227
82%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.20
FoulsContext
13.60
15.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.42
70%
Scored inContext
40%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.30
ShotsContext
11.20
4.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
30%
On target shareContext
25%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
61%
Box shareContext
64%
8%
ConversionContext
5%
3.10
OffsidesContext
1.50
10.30
Shots allowedContext
15.20
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.00
BlocksContext
5.00
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
66%
Save rateContext
73%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
418
PassesContext
296
345
Accurate passesContext
227
83%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.75
14.00
FoulsContext
13.60
15.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bologna
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km4,082 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
Pisa
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel115 km899 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bologna |
Pisa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 33 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 115 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,082 km | 899 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 13 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bologna
Confirmed XI
1Ł. Skorupski(G)
33Juan Miranda
26J. Lucumí
14T. Heggem
20N. Zortea
6N. Moro
8R. Freuler
28N. Cambiaghi
21J. Odgaard
7R. Orsolini
24T. Dallinga
Pisa
Confirmed XI
1A. Šemper(G)
94G. Bonfanti
4A. Caracciolo
5S. Canestrelli
7M. Léris
14E. Akinsanmiro
6M. Marin
21İ. Vural
15I. Touré
10M. Tramoni
18M. Nzola
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bologna
Absences are shown before kick-off
Pisa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bologna+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Pisa-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Bologna · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Pisa · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Bologna | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Bologna | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 1.80 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 20% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 60% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Bologna | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 1.86 | 1.80 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 43% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 20% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 40% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 60% | |
| Games | 7 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bologna | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.40 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 6.80 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 10.80 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 4/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 2.60 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 4/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Bologna | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 6.80 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 10.80 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 2.60 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 0% 0/5 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Rosario Abisso Italy · 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.37league 3.61
Red cards0.28league 0.13
Cards 5+51%league 36%
Fouls25.0league 26.0
Penalties0.40league 0.25
Home wins28%league 38%
Bologna5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 2
- L22 Feb 25A · Parma0–21
- D12 Jan 25H · AS Roma2–24
- W23 Feb 24H · Verona2–02
- L2 Oct 22A · Juventus0–31
- D17 Oct 21A · Udinese1–17
PisaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bologna5 games · scored 5 · conceded 5
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Pisa5 games · scored 3 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
2
4
76-90
Pisa5 games · scored 3 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
