Bologna
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Bologna71.5%fair odds 1.40
Draw18.8%fair odds 5.32
Pisa9.7%fair odds 10.33
Expected goals2.18 – 0.68total 2.86
Likeliest score2–013.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Pisa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Bologna ↓ · Pisa → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.7 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bologna goals, columns Pisa goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–013.7%7.32
- 1–012.1%8.28
- 3–09.9%10.07
- 2–19.2%10.83
- 1–18.9%11.22
- 3–16.7%14.89
- 0–06.2%16.15
- 4–05.4%18.46
- 4–13.7%27.31
- 0–13.4%29.13
Winning margin
25.9%
Bologna by 3+
fair 3.86
21.7%
Bologna by 2
fair 4.60
23.9%
Bologna by 1
fair 4.19
18.8%
Draw
fair 5.32
7.1%
Pisa by 1
fair 14.10
2.1%
Pisa by 2
fair 47.89
0.5%
Pisa by 3+
fair 200.71
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Bologna goals
11%0
25%1
27%2
20%3
18%4+
Pisa goals
51%0
34%1
12%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna win | 71.5% | 72.7% | -1.2 pp |
| Draw | 18.8% | 17.5% | +1.3 pp |
| Pisa win | 9.7% | 9.8% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.4% | 60.4% | -6.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 44.0% | 48.7% | -4.6 pp |
| Expected goals Bologna | 2.18 | 2.37 | -0.18 |
| Expected goals Pisa | 0.68 | 0.76 | -0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Bologna win71.5%1.40
- Draw18.8%5.32
- Pisa win9.7%10.33
- Double chance Bologna or draw90.3%1.11
- Double chance Bologna or Pisa81.2%1.23
- Double chance Pisa or draw28.5%3.51
- Draw no bet Bologna88.1%1.14
- Draw no bet Pisa11.9%8.39
Goals
- Over 0.593.8%1.07
- Over 1.578.3%1.28
- Over 2.554.4%1.84
- Over 3.532.1%3.12
- Over 4.516.1%6.20
- Under 1.521.7%4.61
- Under 2.545.6%2.19
- Under 3.567.9%1.47
Both teams to score
- Yes44.0%2.27
- No56.0%1.79
- Yes and over 2.535.1%2.85
- Bologna win and yes26.9%3.72
- Draw and yes12.6%7.94
- Pisa win and yes4.6%21.84
Team goals
- Bologna over 0.588.7%1.13
- Bologna over 1.564.1%1.56
- Bologna over 2.537.2%2.69
- Pisa over 0.549.1%2.04
- Pisa over 1.514.7%6.78
- Pisa over 2.53.1%31.97
- Bologna clean sheet50.9%1.97
- Pisa clean sheet11.3%8.86
- Bologna win to nil44.7%2.24
- Pisa win to nil5.1%19.61
Handicap
- Bologna −1.547.6%2.10
- Bologna −2.525.9%3.86
- Pisa +1.552.4%1.91
- Pisa +2.574.1%1.35
- Pisa −1.52.6%38.67
- Bologna +1.597.4%1.03
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored56
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result40.4%
1X2 Brier0.620
Over 2.5 called right55.4%
BTTS called right48.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 8 | 37.6% | 62.5% |
| 40–50% | 18 | 44.2% | 38.9% |
| 50–60% | 12 | 53.3% | 33.3% |
| 60–70% | 8 | 63.4% | 62.5% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 73.0% | 80.0% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 81.9% | 60.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 36 of 56 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6266 | 0.5978 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.4% | 40.1% |
| Favourite won | 47.2% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 36 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Udinese 1–1 Cagliari42·28·30
- ✗Atalanta 1–1 Como59·24·17
- ✓Inter 4–1 Cremonese86·11·4
- ✗Parma 0–1 Lecce51·27·22
- ✗Lazio 3–3 Torino54·26·20
- ✗Verona 0–1 Sassuolo42·29·29
- ✓Genoa 0–3 Lazio31·28·41
- ✓Parma 2–1 Torino37·29·33
- ✓AC Milan 2–1 Napoli39·28·33
- ✗Lecce 2–2 Bologna23·27·50
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 56 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.