Bologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bologna were clear favourites.
Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 27). Bologna had 13.9 days of rest, Sassuolo 7.1 and had to travel 60 km.
Away travel60 kmRest days13.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Bologna63%
Draw23%
Sassuolo15%
Bologna64%
Draw21%
Sassuolo14%
Bologna63%
Draw22%
Sassuolo14%
Bologna56%
Draw25%
Sassuolo19%
Bologna64%
Draw21%
Sassuolo15%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bologna)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyJuan Luca Sacchi
- Cards per match 2.5
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 4
Team strength
Bologna
Sassuolo
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
35
AttackIn forecast
41
48
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSassuolo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BolognaSassuolo
1.53
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.31
0.87
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
73%
Scored inContext
69%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
13.47
ShotsContext
10.56
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
31%
On target shareContext
36%
8.73
Shots in the boxContext
6.75
63%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.58
OffsidesContext
2.07
9.93
Shots allowedContext
12.69
3.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.63
3.00
BlocksContext
2.94
2.69
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.71
75%
Save rateContext
72%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
427
PassesContext
386
355
Accurate passesContext
317
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.76
13.73
FoulsContext
12.44
13.93
Fouls sufferedContext
13.88
1.93
Yellow cardsContext
2.44
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.73
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
70%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.30
ShotsContext
11.20
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
31%
On target shareContext
32%
11.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
66%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.57
OffsidesContext
1.90
8.80
Shots allowedContext
11.80
3.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
2.50
BlocksContext
2.60
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
78%
Save rateContext
67%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
438
PassesContext
398
367
Accurate passesContext
327
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.50
FoulsContext
12.80
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bologna
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sassuolo
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel60 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bologna |
Sassuolo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.9Serie A 2025-2026, 14 Dec | 7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 60 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bologna
Confirmed XI
13F. Ravaglia(G)
33Juan Miranda
26J. Lucumí
41M. Vitík
20N. Zortea
4T. Pobega
6N. Moro
11J. Rowe
80G. Fabbian
7R. Orsolini
24T. Dallinga
Sassuolo
Confirmed XI
49A. Murić(G)
5F. Candé
80T. Muharemović
21J. Idzes
6S. Walukiewicz
42K. Thorstvedt
18N. Matić
90I. Koné
45A. Laurienté
99A. Pinamonti
7C. Volpato
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bologna
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sassuolo
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bologna-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Sassuolo+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Bologna · Home
1.86points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-2
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 0.71
Sassuolo · Away
1.38points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-3
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 13 this season
| Opponent | Bologna | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Lazio | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Cremonese | L 1–3 H | L 2–3 A |
| Udinese | W 3–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Napoli | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Torino | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Fiorentina | D 2–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Cagliari | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Pisa | W 4–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Lecce | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 A |
| Genoa | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| AC Milan | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Como | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 22 of 39 · 1.69 per game | 15 of 39 · 1.15 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Bologna wins2 draws1 Sassuolo wins
Goals per game2.17 – 1.17
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 3 Feb 2024Bologna4–2Sassuolo
- 28 Oct 2023Sassuolo1–1Bologna
- 8 May 2023Sassuolo1–1Bologna
- 12 Nov 2022Bologna3–0Sassuolo
- 15 May 2022Bologna1–3Sassuolo
- 22 Dec 2021Sassuolo0–3Bologna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bologna | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.53 | 1.31 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.87 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.56 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 56% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 31% | |
| Games | 15 | 16 |
| Bologna | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bologna | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.27 | 3.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 9.27 | 7.69 | 8.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 9/15 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 7/15 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 5/15 | 6% 1/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.07 | 2.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.06 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 4.62 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 73% 11/15 | 75% 12/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 9/15 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Bologna | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 9.77 | 7.90 | 8.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Luca Sacchi Italy · 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.50league 3.93
Red cards0.00league 0.17
Cards 5+0%league 39%
Fouls26.3league 26.0
Penalties0.25league 0.31
Home wins50%league 39%
Bologna1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W22 Nov 25A · Udinese3–01
SassuoloNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bologna15 games · scored 23 · conceded 13
2
0-15
3
16-30
6
3
31-45
6
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
Sassuolo16 games · scored 21 · conceded 20
5
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
7
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 16 · conceded 8
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
5
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
76-90
Sassuolo10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
3
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
