Bologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bologna were slight favourites.
Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 31). Absences weigh more on Udinese. Bologna had 4.1 days of rest, Udinese 8.3 and had to travel 230 km.
Away travel230 kmRest days4.1 · 8.3Matches / 14d2 · 1
Bologna55%
Draw27%
Udinese18%
Bologna57%
Draw24%
Udinese19%
Bologna54%
Draw27%
Udinese19%
Bologna48%
Draw29%
Udinese23%
Bologna56%
Draw25%
Udinese18%
Over 2.5 41%
Both score 43%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bologna)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMatteo Marcenaro
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 45
Team strength
Bologna
Udinese
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
35
AttackIn forecast
22
48
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUdinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BolognaUdinese
1.36
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.12
1.28
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.52
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
72%
Scored inContext
80%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.92
ShotsContext
11.20
3.96
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.63
29%
On target shareContext
31%
8.29
Shots in the boxContext
6.48
62%
Box shareContext
55%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.37
OffsidesContext
1.84
10.12
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.92
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
3.00
BlocksContext
3.36
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.65
69%
Save rateContext
63%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
424
PassesContext
354
351
Accurate passesContext
283
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.79
13.44
FoulsContext
13.84
14.16
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.96
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.16
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.50
ShotsContext
9.30
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
30%
On target shareContext
30%
10.56
Shots in the boxContext
5.33
63%
Box shareContext
54%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.00
8.40
Shots allowedContext
12.70
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.71
BlocksContext
3.70
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
62%
Save rateContext
60%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
428
PassesContext
350
355
Accurate passesContext
276
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.77
12.60
FoulsContext
13.90
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bologna
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km4,215 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Udinese
Rest8.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel230 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bologna |
Udinese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 19 Feb | 8.3Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 230 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,215 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bologna
Confirmed XI
1Ł. Skorupski(G)
33Juan Miranda
26J. Lucumí
41M. Vitík
17João Mário
4T. Pobega
8R. Freuler
23S. Sohm
11J. Rowe
9S. Castro
7R. Orsolini
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
28O. Solet
27C. Kabasele
31T. Kristensen
33J. Zemura
14A. Atta
8J. Karlström
24J. Piotrowski
19K. Ehizibue
18A. Buksa
10N. Zaniolo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bologna
Absences are shown before kick-off
Udinese
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bologna+1.6 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Udinese-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Bologna · Home
1.17points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-6
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.17
Udinese · Away
1.33points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-6
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Bologna | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Torino | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Parma | L 0–1 HW 3–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–3 HL 0–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Genoa | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Fiorentina | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A | L 1–5 A |
| Verona | W 3–2 A | W 3–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Como | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Atalanta | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Inter | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Sassuolo | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Juventus | L 0–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Lazio | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Cremonese | L 1–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Napoli | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Cagliari | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Pisa | W 4–0 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Lecce | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Points | 30 of 72 · 1.25 per game | 32 of 72 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Bologna wins5 draws1 Udinese wins
Goals per game1.44 – 1.00
Over 2.556%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets33% · 22%
- 22 Nov 2025Udinese0–3Bologna
- 28 Apr 2025Udinese0–0Bologna
- 18 Aug 2024Bologna1–1Udinese
- 28 Apr 2024Bologna1–1Udinese
- 30 Dec 2023Udinese3–0Bologna
- 2 Apr 2023Bologna3–0Udinese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bologna | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.36 | 1.12 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.28 | 1.52 | |
| Match goals | 2.64 | 2.64 | 2.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 52% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 60% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 28% | 20% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Bologna | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.80 | 2.33 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 43% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bologna | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.46 | 4.65 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.13 | 4.48 | |
| Match total | 8.59 | 9.13 | 8.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 46% 11/24 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 8/24 | 43% 10/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 6/24 | 39% 9/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.16 | 1.92 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.32 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.48 | 3.72 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 17/25 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 14/25 | 32% 8/25 | |
| Bologna | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 9.12 | 8.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.40 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matteo Marcenaro Italy · 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.91league 3.77
Red cards0.31league 0.20
Cards 5+67%league 37%
Fouls23.9league 25.3
Penalties0.22league 0.31
Home wins56%league 38%
Bologna3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L14 Sep 25A · AC Milan0–12
- D28 May 23H · Napoli2–21
- D21 Aug 22H · Verona1–14
Udinese3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L25 May 25H · Fiorentina2–33
- W23 Dec 24A · Fiorentina2–15
- D7 May 22A · Sassuolo1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bologna25 games · scored 34 · conceded 32
3
0-15
5
2
16-30
8
7
31-45
10
5
46-60
5
9
61-75
6
6
76-90
Udinese25 games · scored 28 · conceded 38
3
6
0-15
5
6
16-30
5
5
31-45
7
8
46-60
5
5
61-75
3
8
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
3
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
