Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV – 29 Aug 2026

Bundesliga Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 29 · 17:30 BVB Stadion Dortmund, Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

2–0Full time

Hamburger SV

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Borussia Dortmund were clear favourites.

Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 40). Borussia Dortmund had 105.1 days of rest, Hamburger SV 105.1 and had to travel 284 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel284 kmRest days105.1 · 105.1Matches / 14d0 · 0

Borussia Dortmund72%

Draw17%

Hamburger SV11%

Expected goals 2.43 – 0.86

Borussia Dortmund71%

Draw18%

Hamburger SV11%

Expected goals 2.27 – 0.79

Borussia Dortmund72%

Draw17%

Hamburger SV11%

Expected goals 2.37 – 0.82

Borussia Dortmund65%

Draw20%

Hamburger SV16%

Expected goals 2.16 – 0.96

Borussia Dortmund72%

Draw17%

Hamburger SV12%

Expected goals 2.43 – 0.88

Over 2.5 64% Both score 53% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Dortmund)

22°CDrizzle

Precipitation 0.1 mm
Wind 22 km/h
Humidity 59%

Referee · GermanyFelix Zwayer

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 135

Team strength

Borussia Dortmund

Hamburger SV

80 L90 StrengthIn forecast 40

80 Current StrengthIn forecast 40

69 AttackIn forecast 37

80 DefenceIn forecast 43

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Borussia Dortmund

Attack—

Defense risk—

Hamburger SV

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Borussia Dortmund

Hamburger SV

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

2.00 xGVia Att/Def 1.10

1.08 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.16

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.30

80% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.80 ShotsContext 10.50

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

35% On target shareContext 40%

10.10 Shots in the boxContext 6.78

79% Box shareContext 60%

15% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.67

9.60 Shots allowedContext 15.40

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60

3.43 BlocksContext 3.78

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70

78% Save rateContext 66%

55% PossessionIn forecast 42%

500 PassesContext 341

428 Accurate passesContext 267

86% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.83

10.90 FoulsContext 10.30

9.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Borussia Dortmund

Rest105.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Hamburger SV

Rest105.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel284 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Borussia Dortmund	Hamburger SV
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	105.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 16 May	105.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 16 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	284 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Borussia Dortmund Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1G. Kobel(G)

24D. Svensson 3W. Anton 22J. Gadou

14M. Beier 8F. Nmecha 7J. Bellingham 26J. Ryerson

45G. Konstantelias 9S. Guirassy 19K. Karetsas

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Hamburger SV Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)

23J. Torunarigha 33S. Bornauw 24N. Capaldo

37Louis Lemke 21N. Remberg 6A. Sambi Lokonga 18B. Jatta

11A. Grønbæk 5M. Adeline

27P. Daka

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Borussia Dortmund Absences are shown before kick-off

Hamburger SV Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Borussia Dortmund+0.1 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Hamburger SV+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Borussia Dortmund · Home No home games yet this season.

Hamburger SV · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Borussia Dortmund wins1 draws0 Hamburger SV wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

21 Mar 2026Borussia Dortmund3–2Hamburger SV
8 Nov 2025Hamburger SV1–1Borussia Dortmund

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Borussia Dortmund	Hamburger SV	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.29
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	64%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	53%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Borussia Dortmund	Hamburger SV	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.40
Conceded per game	0.90	1.90
Match goals	2.80	3.30	3.29
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	64%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	90%	53%
Clean sheets	40%	0%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Borussia Dortmund	Hamburger SV	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.83
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Borussia Dortmund	Hamburger SV	League
Corners
Corners won	5.22	3.67
Corners conceded	3.89	6.78
Match total	9.11	10.45	10.83
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.20
Opponent cards	1.30	3.00
Match total	3.10	5.20	3.50
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Felix Zwayer Germany · 135 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.69league 3.50

Red cards0.15league 0.00

Cards 5+54%league 33%

Fouls21.9league 24.5

Penalties0.30league 0.17

Home wins44%league 67%

Borussia Dortmund7 with this referee

Record4-1-2 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

D14 Dec 25A · SC Freiburg1–13
W13 Sep 25A · 1. FC Heidenheim2–03
W5 Apr 25A · SC Freiburg4–10
W24 Aug 24H · Eintracht Frankfurt2–00
L4 Dec 21H · Bayern München2–32

Hamburger SV1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W10 May 26H · SC Freiburg3–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.