Borussia Dortmund
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Borussia Dortmund71.5%fair odds 1.40
Draw17.5%fair odds 5.71
Hamburger SV11.0%fair odds 9.10
Expected goals2.43 – 0.86total 3.29
Likeliest score2–011.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Hamburger SV
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Borussia Dortmund ↓ · Hamburger SV → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Borussia Dortmund goals, columns Hamburger SV goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.0%9.08
- 2–19.5%10.56
- 3–08.9%11.24
- 1–08.7%11.54
- 1–18.2%12.16
- 3–17.7%13.07
- 4–05.4%18.53
- 4–14.6%21.55
- 0–04.2%24.06
- 2–24.1%24.56
Winning margin
28.5%
Borussia Dortmund by 3+
fair 3.51
21.0%
Borussia Dortmund by 2
fair 4.77
22.1%
Borussia Dortmund by 1
fair 4.53
17.5%
Draw
fair 5.71
7.6%
Hamburger SV by 1
fair 13.24
2.6%
Hamburger SV by 2
fair 37.94
0.8%
Hamburger SV by 3+
fair 124.41
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
23%5+
Borussia Dortmund goals
9%0
21%1
26%2
21%3
23%4+
Hamburger SV goals
42%0
36%1
16%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund win | 71.5% | 71.1% | +0.4 pp |
| Draw | 17.5% | 17.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Hamburger SV win | 11.0% | 11.3% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 63.8% | 64.2% | -0.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.0% | 53.7% | -0.7 pp |
| Expected goals Borussia Dortmund | 2.43 | 2.43 | -0.00 |
| Expected goals Hamburger SV | 0.86 | 0.88 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Borussia Dortmund win71.5%1.40
- Draw17.5%5.71
- Hamburger SV win11.0%9.10
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw89.0%1.12
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or Hamburger SV82.5%1.21
- Double chance Hamburger SV or draw28.5%3.51
- Draw no bet Borussia Dortmund86.7%1.15
- Draw no bet Hamburger SV13.3%7.50
Goals
- Over 0.595.8%1.04
- Over 1.584.4%1.19
- Over 2.563.8%1.57
- Over 3.541.6%2.40
- Over 4.523.5%4.26
- Under 1.515.6%6.40
- Under 2.536.2%2.76
- Under 3.558.4%1.71
Both teams to score
- Yes53.0%1.89
- No47.0%2.13
- Yes and over 2.544.8%2.23
- Borussia Dortmund win and yes33.3%3.00
- Draw and yes13.4%7.48
- Hamburger SV win and yes6.3%15.86
Team goals
- Borussia Dortmund over 0.591.2%1.10
- Borussia Dortmund over 1.569.7%1.43
- Borussia Dortmund over 2.543.7%2.29
- Hamburger SV over 0.557.7%1.73
- Hamburger SV over 1.521.3%4.70
- Hamburger SV over 2.55.6%17.72
- Borussia Dortmund clean sheet42.3%2.36
- Hamburger SV clean sheet8.8%11.31
- Borussia Dortmund win to nil38.2%2.62
- Hamburger SV win to nil4.7%21.33
Handicap
- Borussia Dortmund −1.549.4%2.02
- Borussia Dortmund −2.528.5%3.51
- Hamburger SV +1.550.6%1.98
- Hamburger SV +2.571.5%1.40
- Hamburger SV −1.53.4%29.07
- Borussia Dortmund +1.596.6%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored6
Favourite won33.3%
Avg chance given to result39.0%
1X2 Brier0.640
Over 2.5 called right83.3%
BTTS called right66.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 2 | 42.8% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 3 | 56.6% | 33.3% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 6 of 6 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6400 | 0.6532 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.0% | 39.3% |
| Favourite won | 33.3% | 33.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 6 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 6 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.