Bundesliga Gameweek 3 Sat, Sep 12 · 14:30 BVB Stadion Dortmund, Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund 3rd · 6 pts · 2 played
3–0Full time
SC Paderborn 07 13th · 1 pts · 2 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Borussia Dortmund were clear favourites.

Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 37). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for SC Paderborn 07. Borussia Dortmund had 3.8 days of rest, SC Paderborn 07 7 and had to travel 92 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel92 kmRest days3.8 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2
Borussia Dortmund72%
Draw17%
SC Paderborn 0711%
Expected goals 2.38 – 0.84
Borussia Dortmund73%
Draw16%
SC Paderborn 0710%
Expected goals 2.37 – 0.75
Borussia Dortmund72%
Draw17%
SC Paderborn 0711%
Expected goals 2.38 – 0.83
Borussia Dortmund64%
Draw20%
SC Paderborn 0716%
Expected goals 2.12 – 0.94
Borussia Dortmund71%
Draw17%
SC Paderborn 0711%
Expected goals 2.35 – 0.83
Over 2.5 62% Both score 51% Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Dortmund)
21°COvercast
  • Precipitation 0.0 mm
  • Wind 10 km/h
  • Humidity 53%
Referee · GermanyHarm Osmers
  • Cards per match 4.4
  • Penalties per match 0.31
  • Matches 106

Team strength

Borussia DortmundSC Paderborn 07
82 L90 StrengthIn forecast 37
80 Current StrengthIn forecast 38
69 AttackIn forecast 34
80 DefenceIn forecast 33
85 Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Borussia Dortmund

Attack—
Defense risk—

SC Paderborn 07

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Borussia DortmundSC Paderborn 07
2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.00
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50
1.78 xGVia Att/Def 0.75
1.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.24
+0.72 Goals minus xGContext -0.75
100% Scored inContext 0%
50% Clean sheetsContext 50%
15.50 ShotsContext 12.00
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
32% On target shareContext 13%
11.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.00
75% Box shareContext 51%
16% ConversionContext 0%
1.50 OffsidesContext 1.00
13.00 Shots allowedContext 18.50
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
— BlocksContext 7.00
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
78% Save rateContext 89%
48% PossessionIn forecast 54%
437 PassesContext 500
363 Accurate passesContext 415
83% Pass accuracyContext 83%
7.25 Team ratingContext 7.03
10.00 FoulsContext 13.00
16.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.50 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60
1.66 xGVia Att/Def 1.38
1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37
+0.34 Goals minus xGContext +0.02
80% Scored inContext 70%
40% Clean sheetsContext 30%
12.50 ShotsContext 13.70
4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
35% On target shareContext 33%
9.10 Shots in the boxContext 10.75
75% Box shareContext 67%
16% ConversionContext 10%
1.80 OffsidesContext 1.50
11.10 Shots allowedContext 12.60
4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
3.38 BlocksContext 3.33
3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.25
78% Save rateContext 77%
50% PossessionIn forecast 49%
469 PassesContext 430
398 Accurate passesContext 348
85% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.01 Team ratingContext 6.94
11.70 FoulsContext 12.40
11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.10
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Borussia Dortmund
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km541 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 85 · 9 pts vs 4.1 for an average club · +3.3 vs expected
  • W8 SepH · Villarreal3–21.8 xPts
  • W5 SepA · 1899 Hoffenheim3–21.6 xPts
  • W29 AugH · Hamburger SV2–02.3 xPts
SC Paderborn 07
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel92 km392 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 37 · 1 pts vs 2.5 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
  • L5 SepH · SC Freiburg0–11.2 xPts
  • D29 AugA · FSV Mainz 050–00.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Borussia Dortmund SC Paderborn 07
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 15Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 8 Sep7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 5 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km92 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways541 km392 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 3 / 31 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one7.18.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Borussia Dortmund Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck 3W. Anton 22J. Gadou
24D. Svensson 7J. Bellingham 25J. Veerman 26J. Ryerson
21Fábio Silva 18E. Nwaneri
9S. Guirassy
+7 more reported missing outside this XI
SC Paderborn 07 Confirmed XI
3-1-4-2
15N. Noll(G)
22M. Hansen 25T. Scheller 21J. ter Horst
5S. Castañeda
23R. Obermair 40G. Vidović 28L. Ulrich 17L. Curda
30S. Marino 18M. Pieringer
+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Borussia Dortmund Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Paderborn 07 Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Borussia Dortmund-0.3 pp
  • Draw+0.1 pp
  • SC Paderborn 07+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Borussia Dortmund · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
0.00
SC Paderborn 07 · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-1-0
Scored
0.00
Conceded
0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Borussia DortmundSC Paderborn 07Forecast
Scored per game 2.500.00
Conceded per game 1.000.50
Match goals 3.500.50 3.21
Over 1.5 100%0%
Over 2.5 50%0% 62%
Over 3.5 50%0%
Both teams scored 50%0% 51%
Clean sheets 50%50%
Failed to score 0%100%
Games22
Borussia DortmundSC Paderborn 07Forecast
Scored per game 2.000.00
Conceded per game 1.000.50
Match goals 3.000.50 3.21
Over 1.5 80%0%
Over 2.5 50%0% 62%
Over 3.5 40%0%
Both teams scored 40%0% 51%
Clean sheets 40%50%
Failed to score 20%100%
Games102

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Borussia DortmundSC Paderborn 07League
Corners
Corners won3.003.50
Corners conceded5.507.50
Match total8.5011.0011.28
Over 8.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 9.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 10.550% 1/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards2.502.50
Opponent cards2.502.00
Match total5.004.503.56
Over 3.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 4.550% 1/250% 1/2
Borussia DortmundSC Paderborn 07League
Corners
Corners won4.005.00
Corners conceded4.334.10
Match total8.339.1011.28
Over 8.544% 4/950% 5/10
Over 9.522% 2/930% 3/10
Over 10.522% 2/920% 2/10
Cards
Cards2.102.20
Opponent cards1.602.50
Match total3.704.703.56
Over 3.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 4.530% 3/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Harm Osmers Germany · 106 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.17league 3.47
Red cards0.18league 0.11
Cards 5+44%league 21%
Fouls22.1league 23.2
Penalties0.31league 0.05
Home wins55%league 53%
Borussia Dortmund11 with this referee
Record7-2-2 Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.9 Pens for · against2 · 0
  • W17 Jan 26H · FC St. Pauli3–23
  • W17 May 25H · Holstein Kiel3–03
  • L15 Feb 25A · VfL Bochum0–20
  • D15 Dec 24H · 1899 Hoffenheim1–15
  • W30 Mar 24A · Bayern München2–00
SC Paderborn 07

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Borussia Dortmund2 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
1 0-15
16-30
1 1 31-45
1 46-60
2 61-75
1 76-90
SC Paderborn 072 games · scored 0 · conceded 1
0-15
1 16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 20 · conceded 10
3 1 0-15
16-30
4 3 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
8 4 76-90
SC Paderborn 0710 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
2 2 0-15
4 4 16-30
3 4 31-45
1 46-60
1 1 61-75
4 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Union Berlin FC Schalke 04 13 SC Freiburg Borussia Mönchengladbach 50 FSV Mainz 05 Eintracht Frankfurt 13 Borussia Dortmund SC Paderborn 07 30 1899 Hoffenheim VfB Stuttgart 21 FC Augsburg Bayer Leverkusen 22 1.FC Köln Werder Bremen 11 RB Leipzig Hamburger SV 50 SV Elversberg Bayern München 12