Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal – 8 Sep 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 1 Tue, Sep 8 · 20:00 BVB Stadion Dortmund, Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

3–2Full time

Villarreal

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Borussia Dortmund were slight favourites.

Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 66). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Villarreal. Borussia Dortmund had 3.2 days of rest, Villarreal 3 and had to travel 1,413 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel1,413 kmRest days3.2 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 2

Borussia Dortmund53%

Draw23%

Villarreal24%

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.17

Borussia Dortmund57%

Draw23%

Villarreal20%

Expected goals 1.81 – 0.99

Borussia Dortmund53%

Draw23%

Villarreal24%

Expected goals 1.80 – 1.13

Borussia Dortmund45%

Draw24%

Villarreal31%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.32

Borussia Dortmund53%

Draw23%

Villarreal24%

Expected goals 1.82 – 1.16

Over 2.5 58% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Dortmund)

23°COvercast

Precipitation 0.6 mm
Wind 9 km/h
Humidity 61%

Referee · ItalySimone Sozza

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.46
Matches 99

Team strength

Borussia Dortmund

Villarreal

81 L90 StrengthIn forecast 66

80 Current StrengthIn forecast 65

69 AttackIn forecast 76

80 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext 27

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Borussia Dortmund

Attack—

Defense risk—

Villarreal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Borussia Dortmund

Villarreal

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.94 xGVia Att/Def 1.61

1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

+0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.49

80% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 0%

13.00 ShotsContext 13.10

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

35% On target shareContext 40%

9.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.80

77% Box shareContext 66%

15% ConversionContext 16%

1.80 OffsidesContext 2.33

10.20 Shots allowedContext 12.50

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.43 BlocksContext 4.63

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

74% Save rateContext 70%

52% PossessionIn forecast 55%

470 PassesContext 514

397 Accurate passesContext 452

85% Pass accuracyContext 88%

7.00 Team ratingContext 6.90

11.00 FoulsContext 11.00

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Borussia Dortmund WW

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km541 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

Form 76 · 6 pts vs 2.8 for an average club · +2.1 vs expected

W5 SepA · 1899 Hoffenheim3–21.6 xPts
W29 AugH · Hamburger SV2–02.3 xPts

Villarreal DDLL

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,413 km777 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 27 · 2 pts vs 4.8 for an average club · -4.1 vs expected

L5 SepH · Deportivo La Coruna2–32.2 xPts
L28 AugA · Alaves0–11.4 xPts
D23 AugA · Atletico Madrid2–21.0 xPts
D16 AugA · Racing Santander2–21.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Borussia Dortmund	Villarreal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 5 Sep	3La Liga 2026-2027, 5 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,413 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	541 km	777 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	3.8	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Borussia Dortmund Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1G. Kobel(G)

24D. Svensson 3W. Anton 22J. Gadou

14M. Beier 8F. Nmecha 25J. Veerman 26J. Ryerson

20M. Sabitzer 19K. Karetsas

9S. Guirassy

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Villarreal Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25P. Gulácsi(G)

23Sergi Cardona 12Renato Veiga 6Pau Navarro 15S. Mouriño

18P. Gueye 14Santi Comesaña

21T. Oluwaseyi 24N. Saliba 17T. Buchanan

9G. Mikautadze

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Borussia Dortmund Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Villarreal Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Borussia Dortmund-0.4 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Villarreal+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Borussia Dortmund · Home No home games yet this season.

Villarreal · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Borussia Dortmund wins0 draws0 Villarreal wins

Goals per game4.00 – 0.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 0%

25 Nov 2025Borussia Dortmund4–0Villarreal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Borussia Dortmund	Villarreal	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.01
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	58%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	58%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Borussia Dortmund	Villarreal	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.10
Conceded per game	1.00	1.70
Match goals	3.00	3.80	3.01
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	58%
Over 3.5	40%	60%
Both teams scored	40%	80%	58%
Clean sheets	40%	0%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Borussia Dortmund	Villarreal	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Borussia Dortmund	Villarreal	League
Corners
Corners won	4.11	6.60
Corners conceded	3.89	4.20
Match total	8.00	10.80	9.50
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.70
Opponent cards	1.60	2.30
Match total	3.80	4.00	4.50
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Simone Sozza Italy · 99 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.15league 4.50

Red cards0.16league 0.00

Cards 5+41%league 50%

Fouls24.7league 26.5

Penalties0.46league 0.50

Home wins39%league 50%

Borussia Dortmund

No previous matches with this referee.

Villarreal

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.