Borussia Mönchengladbach
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Mönchengladbach
13th · 29 pts · 27 played
LWLWD
2–2Full time
1. FC Heidenheim
18th · 15 pts · 27 played
DLLLD
Our take
Borussia Mönchengladbach were slight favourites.
Borussia Mönchengladbach were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for 1. FC Heidenheim. Borussia Mönchengladbach had 14 days of rest, 1. FC Heidenheim 14 and had to travel 385 km.
Away travel385 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Borussia Mönchengladbach59%
Draw23%
1. FC Heidenheim19%
Borussia Mönchengladbach57%
Draw24%
1. FC Heidenheim19%
Borussia Mönchengladbach58%
Draw23%
1. FC Heidenheim19%
Borussia Mönchengladbach51%
Draw25%
1. FC Heidenheim24%
Borussia Mönchengladbach58%
Draw23%
1. FC Heidenheim19%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Mönchengladbach)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyBastian Dankert
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 76
Team strength
Borussia Mönchengladbach1. FC Heidenheim
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
34
AttackIn forecast
48
21
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia Mönchengladbach1. FC Heidenheim
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.26
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.82
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
63%
Scored inContext
59%
37%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.11
ShotsContext
10.93
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.48
37%
On target shareContext
30%
7.73
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
67%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.27
OffsidesContext
2.24
13.67
Shots allowedContext
14.89
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.52
3.15
BlocksContext
3.81
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.26
69%
Save rateContext
59%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
424
PassesContext
351
349
Accurate passesContext
272
82%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.37
FoulsContext
9.78
10.19
Fouls sufferedContext
10.19
1.44
Yellow cardsContext
1.59
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.90
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
70%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.10
ShotsContext
10.40
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
32%
On target shareContext
26%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
64%
Box shareContext
69%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.71
13.20
Shots allowedContext
13.80
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.30
2.90
BlocksContext
3.78
4.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
75%
Save rateContext
59%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
413
PassesContext
319
335
Accurate passesContext
242
81%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.67
10.20
FoulsContext
9.10
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.10
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km90 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel385 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Mönchengladbach |
1. FC Heidenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Mar | 14Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 385 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 90 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed XI
33M. Nicolas(G)
4K. Diks
30N. Elvedi
16P. Sander
17J. Castrop
6Y. Engelhardt
27R. Reitz
29J. Scally
36Wael Mohya
9F. Honorat
18S. Machino
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
41D. Ramaj(G)
26Hennes Behrens
19J. Föhrenbach
6P. Mainka
2M. Busch
17M. Honsak
30N. Dorsch
16J. Niehues
8E. Dinkçi
11B. Zivzivadze
18M. Pieringer
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Mönchengladbach
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1. FC Heidenheim
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Mönchengladbach+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- 1. FC Heidenheim-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home
1.23points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-5
- Scored
- 1.23
- Conceded
- 1.62
1. FC Heidenheim · Away
0.31points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-11
- Scored
- 0.69
- Conceded
- 2.08
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1. FC Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| 1.FC Köln | D 3–3 AW 3–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–0 HW 4–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–4 AL 0–3 H | L 0–4 H |
| Union Berlin | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–3 AL 4–6 H | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | D 3–3 HL 0–6 A |
| Werder Bremen | D 1–1 AL 0–4 H | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–3 HL 0–1 A | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–5 A | L 2–4 HL 1–3 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 4–0 H | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 AL 0–2 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 1–3 H | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| RB Leipzig | D 0–0 H | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A |
| Points | 26 of 78 · 1.00 per game | 15 of 78 · 0.58 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
4 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins1 draws0 1. FC Heidenheim wins
Goals per game2.40 – 0.80
Over 2.580%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 0%
- 22 Nov 20251. FC Heidenheim0–3Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 1 Mar 20251. FC Heidenheim0–3Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 19 Oct 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach3–21. FC Heidenheim
- 16 Mar 20241. FC Heidenheim1–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 28 Oct 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11. FC Heidenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 2.26 | |
| Match goals | 2.93 | 3.26 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 67% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 37% | |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 59% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 37% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 37% | 41% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.96 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.62 | 4.92 | |
| Match total | 8.58 | 9.52 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 11/26 | 64% 16/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 9/26 | 40% 10/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 6/26 | 36% 9/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.52 | 1.63 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.96 | |
| Match total | 3.82 | 3.59 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 9/27 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 9/27 | 37% 10/27 | |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.10 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 5.78 | |
| Match total | 6.50 | 10.00 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 10% 1/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.20 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bastian Dankert Germany · 76 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.42league 3.73
Red cards0.16league 0.18
Cards 5+32%league 37%
Fouls23.4league 20.5
Penalties0.25league 0.36
Home wins47%league 45%
Borussia Mönchengladbach4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W21 Dec 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim2–10
- W3 Nov 24H · Werder Bremen4–11
- W7 Apr 24A · VfL Wolfsburg3–12
- L11 Dec 21A · RB Leipzig1–42
1. FC Heidenheim7 with this referee
Record3-1-3
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L8 Nov 25A · Bayer Leverkusen0–61
- W29 Mar 25A · VfL Wolfsburg1–04
- L18 Jan 25H · FC St. Pauli0–21
- L23 Nov 24A · Bayer Leverkusen2–50
- W28 Apr 24A · SV Darmstadt 981–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Mönchengladbach27 games · scored 33 · conceded 46
4
8
0-15
3
7
16-30
6
11
31-45
3
2
46-60
8
8
61-75
9
10
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim27 games · scored 27 · conceded 61
1
3
0-15
3
9
16-30
4
15
31-45
6
12
46-60
5
9
61-75
8
13
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 11 · conceded 23
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
5
61-75
3
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
