Borussia Mönchengladbach
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
13th · 29 pts · 27 played
LWLWD
2–2Full time
1. FC Heidenheim
18th · 15 pts · 27 played
DLLLD
Borussia Mönchengladbach58.6%fair odds 1.71
Draw22.6%fair odds 4.42
1. FC Heidenheim18.8%fair odds 5.32
Expected goals1.97 – 1.03total 2.99
Likeliest score1–110.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
1. FC Heidenheim
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Borussia Mönchengladbach ↓ · 1. FC Heidenheim → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Borussia Mönchengladbach goals, columns 1. FC Heidenheim goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.7%9.38
- 2–110.0%10.05
- 2–09.7%10.35
- 1–09.3%10.76
- 3–16.5%15.34
- 3–06.3%15.80
- 0–05.5%18.05
- 1–25.2%19.18
- 2–25.1%19.52
- 0–14.6%21.66
Winning margin
17.3%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 3+
fair 5.79
18.1%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 2
fair 5.53
23.2%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 1
fair 4.30
22.6%
Draw
fair 4.42
11.9%
1. FC Heidenheim by 1
fair 8.39
5.0%
1. FC Heidenheim by 2
fair 20.15
1.9%
1. FC Heidenheim by 3+
fair 52.53
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Borussia Mönchengladbach goals
14%0
28%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
1. FC Heidenheim goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 58.6% | 57.7% | +0.9 pp |
| Draw | 22.6% | 23.3% | -0.7 pp |
| 1. FC Heidenheim win | 18.8% | 19.0% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.6% | 55.1% | +2.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.8% | 54.2% | +1.6 pp |
| Expected goals Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1.97 | 1.89 | +0.08 |
| Expected goals 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.03 | 1.00 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win58.6%1.71
- Draw22.6%4.42
- 1. FC Heidenheim win18.8%5.32
- Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw81.2%1.23
- Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or 1. FC Heidenheim77.4%1.29
- Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or draw41.4%2.41
- Draw no bet Borussia Mönchengladbach75.7%1.32
- Draw no bet 1. FC Heidenheim24.3%4.12
Goals
- Over 0.594.5%1.06
- Over 1.580.5%1.24
- Over 2.557.6%1.74
- Over 3.535.2%2.84
- Over 4.518.4%5.44
- Under 1.519.5%5.14
- Under 2.542.4%2.36
- Under 3.564.8%1.54
Both teams to score
- Yes55.8%1.79
- No44.2%2.26
- Yes and over 2.545.2%2.21
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win and yes28.4%3.52
- Draw and yes17.1%5.85
- 1. FC Heidenheim win and yes10.3%9.70
Team goals
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 0.586.0%1.16
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 1.558.4%1.71
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 2.531.4%3.19
- 1. FC Heidenheim over 0.564.3%1.56
- 1. FC Heidenheim over 1.527.5%3.63
- 1. FC Heidenheim over 2.58.6%11.64
- Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet35.7%2.80
- 1. FC Heidenheim clean sheet14.0%7.13
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win to nil30.2%3.32
- 1. FC Heidenheim win to nil8.5%11.80
Handicap
- Borussia Mönchengladbach −1.535.3%2.83
- Borussia Mönchengladbach −2.517.3%5.79
- 1. FC Heidenheim +1.564.7%1.55
- 1. FC Heidenheim +2.582.7%1.21
- 1. FC Heidenheim −1.56.9%14.56
- Borussia Mönchengladbach +1.593.1%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored243
Favourite won57.2%
Avg chance given to result43.4%
1X2 Brier0.557
Over 2.5 called right60.1%
BTTS called right56.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 32 | 38.3% | 37.5% |
| 40–50% | 75 | 44.9% | 46.7% |
| 50–60% | 66 | 55.2% | 62.1% |
| 60–70% | 39 | 64.5% | 69.2% |
| 70–80% | 20 | 74.1% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 11 | 86.3% | 81.8% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 196 of 243 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5493 | 0.5458 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.8% | 43.3% |
| Favourite won | 58.7% | 58.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 196 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 243 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.