Borussia Mönchengladbach
Attack—
Defense risk—
Borussia Mönchengladbach
14th · 32 pts · 31 played
DDLDD
1–0Full time
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 67 pts · 31 played
WWLLW
Our take
Borussia Dortmund were slight favourites.
Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Borussia Dortmund. Borussia Mönchengladbach had 8.1 days of rest, Borussia Dortmund 7 and had to travel 80 km.
Away travel80 kmRest days8.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Borussia Mönchengladbach20%
Draw22%
Borussia Dortmund58%
Borussia Mönchengladbach20%
Draw24%
Borussia Dortmund55%
Borussia Mönchengladbach19%
Draw22%
Borussia Dortmund59%
Borussia Mönchengladbach15%
Draw20%
Borussia Dortmund66%
Borussia Mönchengladbach20%
Draw24%
Borussia Dortmund56%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Mönchengladbach)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFlorian Badstubner
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 72
Team strength
Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Dortmund
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
81
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
81
34
AttackIn forecast
69
21
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Dortmund
1.16
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.61
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
61%
Scored inContext
97%
35%
Clean sheetsContext
45%
11.13
ShotsContext
12.84
4.31
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.42
36%
On target shareContext
34%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.35
67%
Box shareContext
74%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
2.24
OffsidesContext
1.95
13.94
Shots allowedContext
10.19
5.48
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.26
BlocksContext
2.96
3.94
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.62
72%
Save rateContext
73%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
426
PassesContext
484
351
Accurate passesContext
408
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.98
10.03
FoulsContext
11.06
10.13
Fouls sufferedContext
10.13
1.68
Yellow cardsContext
1.94
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.85
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.20
ShotsContext
12.00
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
32%
On target shareContext
32%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.89
69%
Box shareContext
79%
9%
ConversionContext
16%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.29
12.60
Shots allowedContext
10.70
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.00
BlocksContext
3.71
4.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
74%
Save rateContext
67%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
431
PassesContext
464
354
Accurate passesContext
387
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.92
8.30
FoulsContext
11.50
9.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km657 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Borussia Dortmund
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel80 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Mönchengladbach |
Borussia Dortmund |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Apr | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 26 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 80 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 657 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Confirmed XI
33M. Nicolas(G)
29J. Scally
2F. Chiarodia
30N. Elvedi
16P. Sander
9F. Honorat
36W. Mohya
7K. Stöger
6Y. Engelhardt
27R. Reitz
15H. Tabaković
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
49Luca Reggiani
14M. Beier
7J. Bellingham
20M. Sabitzer
26J. Ryerson
40Samuele Inacio
10J. Brandt
9S. Guirassy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Mönchengladbach
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Dortmund
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Mönchengladbach+0.8 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Borussia Dortmund-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home
1.20points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-6-5
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 1.60
Borussia Dortmund · Away
1.93points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-5-2
- Scored
- 1.87
- Conceded
- 1.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg | D 0–0 AL 1–3 H | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | W 4–0 HW 2–0 A |
| RB Leipzig | L 0–1 AD 0–0 H | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 2–2 HW 3–0 A | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A |
| 1.FC Köln | D 3–3 AW 3–1 H | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 2–0 HW 4–0 A | W 3–2 HD 3–3 A |
| Bayern München | L 1–4 AL 0–3 H | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Union Berlin | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H |
| SC Freiburg | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | W 4–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–3 AL 4–6 H | D 3–3 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | D 1–1 AL 0–4 H | W 3–0 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 0–3 HL 0–1 A | W 2–0 AD 3–3 H |
| Hamburger SV | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–5 A | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| FC Augsburg | W 4–0 H | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Points | 32 of 90 · 1.07 per game | 64 of 90 · 2.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins1 draws6 Borussia Dortmund wins
Goals per game1.44 – 2.78
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets11% · 22%
- 19 Dec 2025Borussia Dortmund2–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 20 Apr 2025Borussia Dortmund3–2Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 7 Dec 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach1–1Borussia Dortmund
- 13 Apr 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach1–2Borussia Dortmund
- 25 Nov 2023Borussia Dortmund4–2Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 13 May 2023Borussia Dortmund5–2Borussia Mönchengladbach
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.16 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.61 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.77 | 3.10 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 58% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 52% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 45% | |
| Failed to score | 39% | 3% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.30 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.86 | 5.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.31 | |
| Match total | 8.76 | 9.69 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 13/29 | 59% 17/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 11/29 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 28% 8/29 | 31% 9/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.77 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.23 | 1.65 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.65 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 13/31 | 55% 17/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 12/31 | 39% 12/31 | |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.22 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 7.78 | 9.34 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 3.80 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Badstubner Germany · 72 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.42league 3.72
Red cards0.17league 0.17
Cards 5+31%league 38%
Fouls22.2league 20.2
Penalties0.26league 0.36
Home wins47%league 43%
Borussia Mönchengladbach6 with this referee
Record1-0-5
Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- L14 Jan 25A · VfL Wolfsburg1–50
- L4 Oct 24A · FC Augsburg1–24
- L13 Apr 24H · Borussia Dortmund1–21
- L20 Dec 23A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–26
- W12 Mar 22H · Hertha BSC2–03
Borussia Dortmund7 with this referee
Record4-0-3
Cards · opp.2.9 · 1.6
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds3
- W7 Dec 25H · 1899 Hoffenheim2–00
- L9 Nov 24A · FSV Mainz 051–32
- L22 Sep 24A · VfB Stuttgart1–53
- W13 Apr 24A · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–14
- W29 Sep 23A · 1899 Hoffenheim3–15
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Borussia Mönchengladbach31 games · scored 36 · conceded 50
5
8
0-15
4
8
16-30
6
11
31-45
3
2
46-60
9
9
61-75
9
12
76-90
Borussia Dortmund31 games · scored 65 · conceded 31
9
1
0-15
5
4
16-30
16
5
31-45
7
5
46-60
8
6
61-75
20
10
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 19 · conceded 15
3
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
8
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
