Borussia Mönchengladbach
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
14th · 32 pts · 31 played
DDLDD
1–0Full time
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 67 pts · 31 played
WWLLW
Borussia Mönchengladbach19.9%fair odds 5.04
Draw22.2%fair odds 4.49
Borussia Dortmund57.9%fair odds 1.73
Expected goals1.11 – 2.03total 3.14
Likeliest score1–110.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Borussia Dortmund
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Borussia Mönchengladbach ↓ · Borussia Dortmund → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Borussia Mönchengladbach goals, columns Borussia Dortmund goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.3%9.72
- 1–29.9%10.11
- 0–28.9%11.26
- 0–18.3%12.12
- 1–36.7%14.97
- 0–36.0%16.68
- 2–25.5%18.14
- 2–15.4%18.37
- 0–04.8%20.63
- 1–04.3%23.22
Winning margin
2.2%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 3+
fair 44.55
5.4%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 2
fair 18.60
12.2%
Borussia Mönchengladbach by 1
fair 8.18
22.2%
Draw
fair 4.49
22.7%
Borussia Dortmund by 1
fair 4.41
17.8%
Borussia Dortmund by 2
fair 5.63
17.5%
Borussia Dortmund by 3+
fair 5.72
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
18%4
21%5+
Borussia Mönchengladbach goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
8%3
3%4+
Borussia Dortmund goals
13%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
15%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 19.9% | 20.3% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 22.2% | 23.6% | -1.3 pp |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 57.9% | 56.1% | +1.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 60.7% | 55.7% | +5.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.8% | 55.4% | +3.5 pp |
| Expected goals Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1.11 | 1.04 | +0.07 |
| Expected goals Borussia Dortmund | 2.03 | 1.87 | +0.15 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win19.9%5.04
- Draw22.2%4.49
- Borussia Dortmund win57.9%1.73
- Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw42.1%2.38
- Double chance Borussia Mönchengladbach or Borussia Dortmund77.8%1.29
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw80.1%1.25
- Draw no bet Borussia Mönchengladbach25.5%3.92
- Draw no bet Borussia Dortmund74.5%1.34
Goals
- Over 0.595.2%1.05
- Over 1.582.6%1.21
- Over 2.560.7%1.65
- Over 3.538.4%2.60
- Over 4.520.9%4.79
- Under 1.517.4%5.75
- Under 2.539.3%2.55
- Under 3.561.6%1.62
Both teams to score
- Yes58.8%1.70
- No41.2%2.43
- Yes and over 2.548.6%2.06
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win and yes11.5%8.69
- Draw and yes17.4%5.75
- Borussia Dortmund win and yes29.9%3.34
Team goals
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 0.567.2%1.49
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 1.530.6%3.27
- Borussia Mönchengladbach over 2.510.3%9.76
- Borussia Dortmund over 0.586.8%1.15
- Borussia Dortmund over 1.560.1%1.66
- Borussia Dortmund over 2.533.0%3.03
- Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet13.2%7.58
- Borussia Dortmund clean sheet32.8%3.05
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win to nil8.3%11.98
- Borussia Dortmund win to nil28.0%3.58
Handicap
- Borussia Mönchengladbach −1.57.6%13.12
- Borussia Mönchengladbach −2.52.2%44.55
- Borussia Dortmund +1.592.4%1.08
- Borussia Dortmund +2.597.8%1.02
- Borussia Dortmund −1.535.2%2.84
- Borussia Mönchengladbach +1.564.8%1.54
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored286
Favourite won55.9%
Avg chance given to result43.0%
1X2 Brier0.566
Over 2.5 called right62.2%
BTTS called right59.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 38 | 38.3% | 34.2% |
| 40–50% | 91 | 45.0% | 46.2% |
| 50–60% | 74 | 55.0% | 60.8% |
| 60–70% | 43 | 64.7% | 67.4% |
| 70–80% | 27 | 74.1% | 77.8% |
| 80%+ | 13 | 87.2% | 76.9% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 239 of 286 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5609 | 0.5570 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.4% | 42.7% |
| Favourite won | 56.9% | 55.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 239 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 286 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.