Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg – 13 Dec 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 14 Sat, Dec 13 · 14:30 BORUSSIA-PARK, Mönchengladbach

Borussia Mönchengladbach 11th · 16 pts · 13 played WWWDW

1–3Full time

VfL Wolfsburg 15th · 12 pts · 13 played LLLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Borussia Mönchengladbach were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Borussia Mönchengladbach had 7.8 days of rest, VfL Wolfsburg 7 and had to travel 329 km.

Away travel329 kmRest days7.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2

Borussia Mönchengladbach47%

Draw26%

VfL Wolfsburg27%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.19

Borussia Mönchengladbach47%

Draw26%

VfL Wolfsburg27%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14

Borussia Mönchengladbach47%

Draw26%

VfL Wolfsburg27%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.19

Borussia Mönchengladbach39%

Draw27%

VfL Wolfsburg34%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.33

Borussia Mönchengladbach46%

Draw26%

VfL Wolfsburg27%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.14

Over 2.5 53% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Mönchengladbach)

No weather data yet

RefereePatrick Ittrich

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 38

Team strength

Borussia Mönchengladbach

VfL Wolfsburg

47 L90 StrengthIn forecast 42

36 Current StrengthIn forecast 36

34 AttackIn forecast 50

21 DefenceIn forecast 42

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Attack—

Defense risk—

VfL Wolfsburg

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Borussia Mönchengladbach

VfL Wolfsburg

1.31 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.31

1.46 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.77

1.39 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.07

54% Scored inContext 77%

46% Clean sheetsContext 8%

11.85 ShotsContext 11.54

4.92 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

38% On target shareContext 35%

8.75 Shots in the boxContext 7.23

70% Box shareContext 61%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.45 OffsidesContext 1.57

14.08 Shots allowedContext 14.54

4.85 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.92

3.77 BlocksContext 4.08

3.15 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

65% Save rateContext 66%

46% PossessionIn forecast 45%

418 PassesContext 393

348 Accurate passesContext 314

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.81

10.31 FoulsContext 10.62

10.08 Fouls sufferedContext 10.31

1.46 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 13 and 13 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.37 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.66

+0.33 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

70% Scored inContext 70%

50% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.40 ShotsContext 11.10

5.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

45% On target shareContext 34%

8.11 Shots in the boxContext 7.20

71% Box shareContext 62%

16% ConversionContext 9%

2.44 OffsidesContext 1.57

15.00 Shots allowedContext 15.10

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

4.10 BlocksContext 4.22

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

67% Save rateContext 67%

43% PossessionIn forecast 44%

394 PassesContext 396

324 Accurate passesContext 316

82% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.79

10.10 FoulsContext 10.00

10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.10

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km373 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

VfL Wolfsburg

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel329 km591 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Borussia Mönchengladbach	VfL Wolfsburg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Bundesliga 2025-2026, 5 Dec	7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 6 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	329 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	373 km	591 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Borussia Mönchengladbach Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

33M. Nicolas(G)

4K. Diks 30N. Elvedi 16P. Sander

20L. Netz 6Y. Engelhardt 27R. Reitz 17J. Castrop

13G. Reyna 18S. Machino

15H. Tabaković

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

VfL Wolfsburg Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1K. Grabara(G)

25A. Zehnter 4K. Koulierakis 14J. Seelt 26S. Kumbedi

27M. Arnold 31Y. Gerhardt

39P. Wimmer 10L. Majer 24C. Eriksen

9M. Amoura

+11 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Borussia Mönchengladbach Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

VfL Wolfsburg Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Borussia Mönchengladbach-0.2 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
VfL Wolfsburg+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home 0.86points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 1-3-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

VfL Wolfsburg · Away 1.17points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-3
Scored: 1.17
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 10 this season

Opponent	Borussia Mönchengladbach	VfL Wolfsburg
FSV Mainz 05	W 1–0 A	D 1–1 H
RB Leipzig	D 0–0 H	L 0–1 H
1. FC Heidenheim	W 3–0 A	W 3–1 A
1.FC Köln	W 3–1 H	D 3–3 H
Union Berlin	L 1–3 A	W 3–1 H
Eintracht Frankfurt	L 4–6 H	D 1–1 A
Bayer Leverkusen	D 1–1 A	L 1–3 H
Werder Bremen	L 0–4 H	L 1–2 A
VfB Stuttgart	L 0–1 A	L 0–3 H
Hamburger SV	D 0–0 H	W 1–0 A
Points	12 of 30 · 1.20 per game	12 of 30 · 1.20 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins2 draws2 VfL Wolfsburg wins

Goals per game2.13 – 1.50 Over 2.575% Both scored63% Clean sheets25% · 13%

17 May 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach0–1VfL Wolfsburg
14 Jan 2025VfL Wolfsburg5–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
7 Apr 2024VfL Wolfsburg1–3Borussia Mönchengladbach
10 Nov 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach4–0VfL Wolfsburg
9 Apr 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach2–0VfL Wolfsburg
15 Oct 2022VfL Wolfsburg2–2Borussia Mönchengladbach

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Borussia Mönchengladbach	VfL Wolfsburg	Forecast
Scored per game	1.31	1.31
Conceded per game	1.46	1.77
Match goals	2.77	3.08	2.81
Over 1.5	62%	77%
Over 2.5	54%	62%	53%
Over 3.5	38%	46%
Both teams scored	31%	69%	56%
Clean sheets	46%	8%
Failed to score	46%	23%
Games	13	13

	Borussia Mönchengladbach	VfL Wolfsburg	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.00
Conceded per game	1.40	1.80
Match goals	3.10	2.80	2.81
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	53%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	56%
Clean sheets	50%	10%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Borussia Mönchengladbach	VfL Wolfsburg	League
Corners
Corners won	4.92	3.75
Corners conceded	5.75	7.75
Match total	10.67	11.50	9.79
Over 8.5	75% 9/12	83% 10/12
Over 9.5	58% 7/12	67% 8/12
Over 10.5	50% 6/12	58% 7/12
Cards
Cards	1.54	2.08
Opponent cards	2.46	1.85
Match total	4.00	3.93	4.11
Over 3.5	38% 5/13	54% 7/13
Over 4.5	38% 5/13	46% 6/13

	Borussia Mönchengladbach	VfL Wolfsburg	League
Corners
Corners won	3.78	3.33
Corners conceded	5.89	8.56
Match total	9.67	11.89	9.79
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.90
Opponent cards	2.90	1.40
Match total	4.50	3.30	4.11
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Patrick Ittrich 38 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.89league 3.94

Red cards0.05league 0.20

Cards 5+37%league 42%

Fouls26.1league 21.3

Penalties0.29league 0.33

Home wins50%league 47%

Borussia Mönchengladbach1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W17 Sep 22H · RB Leipzig3–02

VfL Wolfsburg2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D13 Jan 24A · FSV Mainz 051–14
W5 Mar 22H · Union Berlin1–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.