Premier League Gameweek 13 Wed, Dec 2 · 20:00 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset
Bournemouth 15th · 6 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Brighton 3rd · 16 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel128 kmRest days3.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d3 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Bournemouth—%
Draw—%
Brighton—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)

Forecast from 17 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Bournemouth and Brighton. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

BournemouthBrighton
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
77 Current StrengthIn forecast 83
83 AttackIn forecast 87
82 DefenceIn forecast 85
74 Form indexContext 94
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bournemouth

Attack—
Defense risk—

Brighton

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

BournemouthBrighton
1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.29
1.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.71
1.81 xGVia Att/Def 2.09
1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.45
-0.52 Goals minus xGContext +1.20
86% Scored inContext 100%
14% Clean sheetsContext 71%
15.14 ShotsContext 17.86
5.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00
34% On target shareContext 34%
9.57 Shots in the boxContext 11.00
64% Box shareContext 61%
9% ConversionContext 18%
2.00 OffsidesContext 3.50
9.57 Shots allowedContext 10.71
4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.83
2.80 BlocksContext 3.67
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67
55% Save rateContext 70%
52% PossessionIn forecast 60%
433 PassesContext 509
351 Accurate passesContext 434
81% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.80 Team ratingContext 7.25
13.00 FoulsContext 12.86
12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.29
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.14
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.60
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90
1.82 xGVia Att/Def 2.01
1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27
-0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.59
90% Scored inContext 80%
20% Clean sheetsContext 60%
15.80 ShotsContext 17.10
5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80
32% On target shareContext 34%
9.60 Shots in the boxContext 11.10
62% Box shareContext 65%
10% ConversionContext 15%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.57
10.30 Shots allowedContext 9.80
4.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56
3.29 BlocksContext 3.25
2.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56
61% Save rateContext 72%
53% PossessionIn forecast 61%
434 PassesContext 518
353 Accurate passesContext 442
81% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.86 Team ratingContext 7.14
12.20 FoulsContext 11.70
12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00
2.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bournemouth
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,458 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
Form 74 · 9 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Sunderland2–01.8 xPts
  • W15 OctH · Sturm Graz3–02.3 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Chelsea1–51.3 xPts
  • L20 SepH · Liverpool0–11.6 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Real Sociedad2–11.8 xPts
Brighton
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel128 km641 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 94 · 13 pts vs 5.2 for an average club · +4.6 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Crystal Palace5–02.2 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Sunderland2–01.6 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Arsenal3–01.0 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Coventry5–01.7 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Leeds1–11.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Bournemouth Brighton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 28Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3.2Premier League 2026-2027, 29 Nov3.2Premier League 2026-2027, 29 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km128 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,458 km641 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 3 / 51 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one2.82.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bournemouth Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sunderland (H) 2–0, 18 Oct
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert 14António Silva 5J. Hill 15A. Smith
10R. Christie 12T. Adams
16M. Tavernier 4L. Cook 37Rayan
9Evanilson
Brighton Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Crystal Palace (H) 5–0, 18 Oct
1B. Verbruggen(G)
21O. Boscagli 5L. Dunk 44L. Vušković 24F. Kadıoğlu
14Chema Andrés 13P. Groß
29M. De Cuyper 26Y. Ayari 25D. Gómez
19C. Kostoulas

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Bournemouth Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Brighton Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Bournemouth · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.00
Brighton · Away 2.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
2-0-1
Scored
3.33
Conceded
1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentBournemouthBrighton
Sunderland W 2–0 H W 2–0 A
Chelsea L 1–5 A L 3–4 A
Points3 of 6 · 1.50 per game3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Bournemouth wins1 draws5 Brighton wins
Goals per game1.13 – 1.50 Over 2.563% Both scored63% Clean sheets13% · 25%
  • 19 Jan 2026Brighton1–1Bournemouth
  • 13 Sep 2025Bournemouth2–1Brighton
  • 25 Feb 2025Brighton2–1Bournemouth
  • 23 Nov 2024Bournemouth1–2Brighton
  • 28 Apr 2024Bournemouth3–0Brighton
  • 24 Sep 2023Brighton3–1Bournemouth

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

BournemouthBrightonForecast
Scored per game 1.293.29
Conceded per game 1.860.71
Match goals 3.144.00
Over 1.5 86%100%
Over 2.5 57%71%
Over 3.5 43%57%
Both teams scored 71%29%
Clean sheets 14%71%
Failed to score 14%0%
Games77
BournemouthBrightonForecast
Scored per game 1.502.60
Conceded per game 1.500.90
Match goals 3.003.50
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 60%70%
Over 3.5 30%40%
Both teams scored 70%20%
Clean sheets 20%60%
Failed to score 10%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

BournemouthBrightonLeague
Corners
Corners won4.715.71
Corners conceded3.865.00
Match total8.5710.719.49
Over 8.529% 2/771% 5/7
Over 9.529% 2/771% 5/7
Over 10.529% 2/771% 5/7
Cards
Cards3.002.29
Opponent cards1.571.57
Match total4.573.864.17
Over 3.571% 5/757% 4/7
Over 4.557% 4/743% 3/7
BournemouthBrightonLeague
Corners
Corners won4.606.11
Corners conceded4.604.78
Match total9.2010.899.49
Over 8.550% 5/1067% 6/9
Over 9.540% 4/1067% 6/9
Over 10.530% 3/1067% 6/9
Cards
Cards2.801.70
Opponent cards1.801.50
Match total4.603.204.17
Over 3.570% 7/1040% 4/10
Over 4.560% 6/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Bournemouth7 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
2 2 0-15
1 16-30
3 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 61-75
4 76-90
Brighton7 games · scored 23 · conceded 5
4 3 0-15
2 16-30
5 1 31-45
4 46-60
3 1 61-75
5 76-90
Bournemouth10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
3 2 0-15
2 16-30
4 3 31-45
4 4 46-60
2 61-75
2 4 76-90
Brighton10 games · scored 26 · conceded 9
6 3 0-15
2 16-30
5 3 31-45
4 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
6 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Newcastle Manchester United Dec 220:00 Bournemouth Brighton Dec 220:00 Liverpool Sunderland Dec 220:00 Tottenham Fulham Dec 220:00 Chelsea Crystal Palace Dec 220:00 Manchester City Leeds Dec 220:00 Brentford Arsenal Dec 220:00 Hull City Nottingham Forest Dec 220:00 Aston Villa Everton Dec 220:00 Coventry Ipswich Dec 220:00