Premier League Gameweek 13 Wed, Dec 2 · 20:00 Stamford Bridge, London
Chelsea 4th · 13 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Crystal Palace 14th · 7 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel0 kmRest days5 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Chelsea—%
Draw—%
Crystal Palace—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (London)

Forecast from 17 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Chelsea and Crystal Palace. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

ChelseaCrystal Palace
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
77 Current StrengthIn forecast 64
77 AttackIn forecast 64
74 DefenceIn forecast 54
69 Form indexContext 64
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Chelsea

Attack—
Defense risk—

Crystal Palace

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

ChelseaCrystal Palace
2.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29
1.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.43
1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.35
1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.06
+1.00 Goals minus xGContext -0.06
86% Scored inContext 57%
14% Clean sheetsContext 14%
14.29 ShotsContext 10.14
5.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.71
39% On target shareContext 37%
9.14 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
63% Box shareContext 70%
17% ConversionContext 13%
1.60 OffsidesContext 3.00
12.43 Shots allowedContext 17.86
5.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.14
3.67 BlocksContext 5.29
4.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.71
73% Save rateContext 61%
47% PossessionIn forecast 43%
432 PassesContext 404
361 Accurate passesContext 326
84% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.09 Team ratingContext 6.70
9.29 FoulsContext 10.00
11.71 Fouls sufferedContext 10.14
1.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.29
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.52
1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.86
+0.90 Goals minus xGContext +0.08
90% Scored inContext 70%
10% Clean sheetsContext 30%
12.30 ShotsContext 11.00
4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90
40% On target shareContext 36%
7.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.80
60% Box shareContext 71%
17% ConversionContext 15%
1.50 OffsidesContext 2.50
12.50 Shots allowedContext 16.30
5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40
3.44 BlocksContext 4.70
3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40
74% Save rateContext 63%
48% PossessionIn forecast 45%
442 PassesContext 416
370 Accurate passesContext 341
84% Pass accuracyContext 82%
7.00 Team ratingContext 6.77
10.50 FoulsContext 10.50
13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 9.70
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Chelsea
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km350 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 69 · 7 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Everton2–01.3 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Bournemouth5–11.5 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Brentford0–31.2 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Hull City2–22.3 xPts
  • L6 SepA · Arsenal1–20.6 xPts
Crystal Palace
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km276 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Form 64 · 7 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Brighton0–50.6 xPts
  • L15 OctA · Lyon2–31.3 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Nottingham Forest3–11.4 xPts
  • D20 SepA · Leeds0–00.9 xPts
  • W17 SepH · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Chelsea Crystal Palace
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 23
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match5Premier League 2026-2027, 27 Nov3.2Premier League 2026-2027, 29 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways350 km276 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 32 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one2.82.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Chelsea Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Everton (A) 2–0, 17 Oct
1E. Martínez(G)
21J. Hato 6L. Colwill 5M. Lacroix 34J. Acheampong
14J. Henderson 25M. Caicedo
17M. Rogers 10C. Palmer 7Pedro Neto
9João Pedro
Crystal Palace Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Brighton (A) 0–5, 18 Oct
44W. Benítez(G)
21H. Ahanor 26Chris Richards 6J. Canvot
3T. Mitchell 23Q. Timber 20A. Wharton 25A. Khalaili
10Yeremy Pino 18Daichi Kamada
22J. Strand Larsen

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Chelsea Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Crystal Palace Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Chelsea · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
3.67
Conceded
2.00
Crystal Palace · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
0.75
Conceded
2.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentChelseaCrystal Palace
Everton W 2–0 A L 0–2 A
Brighton W 4–3 H L 0–5 A
Fulham W 3–2 A W 3–2 A
Points9 of 9 · 3.00 per game3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

7 Chelsea wins3 draws0 Crystal Palace wins
Goals per game1.70 – 0.60 Over 2.550% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 10%
  • 25 Jan 2026Crystal Palace1–3Chelsea
  • 17 Aug 2025Chelsea0–0Crystal Palace
  • 4 Jan 2025Crystal Palace1–1Chelsea
  • 1 Sep 2024Chelsea1–1Crystal Palace
  • 12 Feb 2024Crystal Palace1–3Chelsea
  • 27 Dec 2023Chelsea2–1Crystal Palace

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

ChelseaCrystal PalaceForecast
Scored per game 2.431.29
Conceded per game 1.862.43
Match goals 4.293.71
Over 1.5 100%86%
Over 2.5 86%71%
Over 3.5 57%71%
Both teams scored 71%57%
Clean sheets 14%14%
Failed to score 14%43%
Games77
ChelseaCrystal PalaceForecast
Scored per game 2.101.60
Conceded per game 1.702.20
Match goals 3.803.80
Over 1.5 100%90%
Over 2.5 80%80%
Over 3.5 40%70%
Both teams scored 80%60%
Clean sheets 10%20%
Failed to score 10%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

ChelseaCrystal PalaceLeague
Corners
Corners won5.863.67
Corners conceded5.436.00
Match total11.299.679.49
Over 8.571% 5/750% 3/6
Over 9.571% 5/733% 2/6
Over 10.557% 4/733% 2/6
Cards
Cards1.861.43
Opponent cards3.001.57
Match total4.863.004.17
Over 3.586% 6/743% 3/7
Over 4.557% 4/729% 2/7
ChelseaCrystal PalaceLeague
Corners
Corners won4.803.89
Corners conceded5.305.22
Match total10.109.119.49
Over 8.550% 5/1044% 4/9
Over 9.550% 5/1033% 3/9
Over 10.540% 4/1033% 3/9
Cards
Cards2.601.60
Opponent cards3.102.00
Match total5.703.604.17
Over 3.590% 9/1050% 5/10
Over 4.570% 7/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Chelsea7 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
7 0-15
3 16-30
2 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
4 2 61-75
1 3 76-90
Crystal Palace7 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
1 5 0-15
2 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 61-75
1 3 76-90
Chelsea10 games · scored 21 · conceded 17
7 1 0-15
1 4 16-30
3 2 31-45
4 4 46-60
5 3 61-75
1 3 76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 16 · conceded 20
2 6 0-15
1 2 16-30
4 4 31-45
5 4 46-60
1 61-75
3 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Newcastle Manchester United Dec 220:00 Bournemouth Brighton Dec 220:00 Liverpool Sunderland Dec 220:00 Tottenham Fulham Dec 220:00 Chelsea Crystal Palace Dec 220:00 Manchester City Leeds Dec 220:00 Brentford Arsenal Dec 220:00 Hull City Nottingham Forest Dec 220:00 Aston Villa Everton Dec 220:00 Coventry Ipswich Dec 220:00