Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace – 3 May 2026

Premier League Gameweek 35 Sun, May 3 · 14:00 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset

Bournemouth 8th · 49 pts · 34 played DDWWD

3–0Full time

Crystal Palace 14th · 43 pts · 33 played WDWDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bournemouth were slight favourites.

Bournemouth were the stronger side on L90 Strength (76 vs 68). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Crystal Palace. Bournemouth had 10.8 days of rest, Crystal Palace 8 and had to travel 151 km.

Away travel151 kmRest days10.8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Bournemouth49%

Draw24%

Crystal Palace27%

Expected goals 1.86 – 1.34

Bournemouth50%

Draw26%

Crystal Palace24%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.08

Bournemouth49%

Draw24%

Crystal Palace27%

Expected goals 1.86 – 1.34

Bournemouth41%

Draw25%

Crystal Palace34%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.51

Bournemouth48%

Draw25%

Crystal Palace27%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.26

Over 2.5 62% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)

No weather data yet

RefereeRobert Jones

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 141

Team strength

Bournemouth

Crystal Palace

76 L90 StrengthIn forecast 68

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 64

83 AttackIn forecast 64

82 DefenceIn forecast 54

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Crystal Palace

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bournemouth

Crystal Palace

1.53 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.09

1.53 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.18

1.64 xGVia Att/Def 1.55

1.51 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.46

79% Scored inContext 70%

26% Clean sheetsContext 36%

13.85 ShotsContext 11.64

4.74 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.84

34% On target shareContext 32%

8.48 Shots in the boxContext 8.59

59% Box shareContext 73%

11% ConversionContext 9%

2.06 OffsidesContext 2.29

12.65 Shots allowedContext 11.21

4.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.28

4.21 BlocksContext 3.10

3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.24

69% Save rateContext 71%

50% PossessionIn forecast 46%

413 PassesContext 397

329 Accurate passesContext 311

80% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.89

11.85 FoulsContext 10.94

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.67

2.38 Yellow cardsContext 2.06

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 34 and 33 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.79 xGVia Att/Def 1.87

1.64 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.85

-0.59 Goals minus xGContext -0.37

70% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

15.00 ShotsContext 12.90

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.78

31% On target shareContext 33%

8.40 Shots in the boxContext 9.40

55% Box shareContext 73%

8% ConversionContext 12%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.25

12.20 Shots allowedContext 9.20

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.22

4.90 BlocksContext 3.78

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

80% Save rateContext 77%

54% PossessionIn forecast 52%

438 PassesContext 434

348 Accurate passesContext 361

79% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.98

10.50 FoulsContext 13.70

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bournemouth

Rest10.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Crystal Palace

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel151 km573 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bournemouth	Crystal Palace
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	10.8Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Apr	8Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	151 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	573 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 5M. Senesi 23J. Hill 20Álex Jiménez

12T. Adams 8A. Scott

16M. Tavernier 22E. Kroupi 37Rayan

9Evanilson

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Crystal Palace Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1D. Henderson(G)

34C. Riad 5M. Lacroix 23J. Canvot

55J. Devenny 18Daichi Kamada 8J. Lerma 2D. Muñoz

10Yeremy Pino 22J. Strand Larsen 11B. Johnson

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bournemouth Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Crystal Palace Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bournemouth-0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Crystal Palace+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Bournemouth · Home 1.59points per game · 17 home games

W-D-L: 6-9-2
Scored: 1.47
Conceded: 1.12

Crystal Palace · Away 1.44points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 7-2-7
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Bournemouth	Crystal Palace
Leeds	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A	D 0–0 HL 1–4 A
Newcastle	W 2–1 AD 0–0 H	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A
Arsenal	W 2–1 AL 2–3 H	L 0–1 A
Manchester United	D 2–2 HD 4–4 A	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
Burnley	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H	L 2–3 HW 1–0 A
Brentford	D 0–0 HL 1–4 A	W 2–0 H
Sunderland	D 1–1 HL 2–3 A	L 1–2 AD 0–0 H
West Ham	D 0–0 AD 2–2 H	D 0–0 HW 2–1 A
Everton	W 2–1 AL 0–1 H	L 1–2 A
Aston Villa	D 1–1 HL 0–4 A	D 0–0 HW 3–0 A
Wolves	W 2–0 AW 1–0 H	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A
Liverpool	W 3–2 HL 2–4 A	L 1–3 AW 2–1 H
Brighton	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H	W 1–0 AD 0–0 H
Tottenham	W 3–2 HW 1–0 A	W 3–1 AL 0–1 H
Chelsea	D 2–2 AD 0–0 H	L 1–3 HD 0–0 A
Manchester City	L 1–3 A	L 0–3 H
Nottingham Forest	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H
Fulham	W 3–1 H	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A
Points	48 of 99 · 1.45 per game	42 of 96 · 1.31 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

2 Bournemouth wins3 draws2 Crystal Palace wins

Goals per game0.86 – 1.00 Over 2.514% Both scored14% Clean sheets57% · 57%

18 Oct 2025Crystal Palace3–3Bournemouth
19 Apr 2025Crystal Palace0–0Bournemouth
26 Dec 2024Bournemouth0–0Crystal Palace
2 Apr 2024Bournemouth1–0Crystal Palace
6 Dec 2023Crystal Palace0–2Bournemouth
13 May 2023Crystal Palace2–0Bournemouth

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bournemouth	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	1.53	1.09
Conceded per game	1.53	1.18
Match goals	3.06	2.27	3.20
Over 1.5	76%	67%
Over 2.5	59%	48%	62%
Over 3.5	47%	18%
Both teams scored	68%	52%	63%
Clean sheets	26%	36%
Failed to score	21%	30%
Games	34	33

	Bournemouth	Crystal Palace	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.20
Conceded per game	0.90	1.10
Match goals	2.10	2.30	3.20
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	62%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	63%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bournemouth	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	5.63	4.30
Corners conceded	5.53	4.85
Match total	11.16	9.15	10.06
Over 8.5	78% 25/32	55% 18/33
Over 9.5	69% 22/32	45% 15/33
Over 10.5	59% 19/32	33% 11/33
Cards
Cards	2.41	2.12
Opponent cards	1.88	2.00
Match total	4.29	4.12	3.91
Over 3.5	65% 22/34	70% 23/33
Over 4.5	44% 15/34	55% 18/33

	Bournemouth	Crystal Palace	League
Corners
Corners won	5.90	4.60
Corners conceded	5.20	4.80
Match total	11.10	9.40	10.06
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.90
Opponent cards	1.40	2.60
Match total	3.70	4.50	3.91
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Robert Jones 141 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.04league 3.78

Red cards0.10league 0.12

Cards 5+43%league 39%

Fouls22.7league 21.5

Penalties0.25league 0.21

Home wins46%league 43%

Bournemouth9 with this referee

Record4-3-2 Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.9 Pens for · against3 · 0

D21 Sep 25H · Newcastle0–02
L2 Apr 25H · Ipswich1–21
D14 Jan 25A · Chelsea2–23
D29 Dec 24A · Fulham2–23
W19 Oct 24H · Arsenal2–01

Crystal Palace12 with this referee

Record3-3-6 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.9 Pens for · against1 · 2

L17 Jan 26A · Sunderland1–23
L30 Nov 25H · Manchester United1–23
W22 Feb 25A · Fulham2–03
D7 Dec 24H · Manchester City2–21
L24 Aug 24H · West Ham0–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.