Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz – 15 Oct 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 15 · 20:00 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset

Bournemouth 14th · 3 pts · 1 played W

3–0Full time

Sturm Graz 21st · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bournemouth were clear favourites.

Bournemouth were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 39). Absences weigh more on Sturm Graz. Bournemouth were without A. Scott. Sturm Graz were without E. Soglo and A. Vallci. Bournemouth had 5.2 days of rest, Sturm Graz 29 and had to travel 1,326 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel1,326 kmRest days5.2 · 29Matches / 14d1 · 0

Bournemouth71%

Draw17%

Sturm Graz12%

Expected goals 2.42 – 0.88

Bournemouth67%

Draw19%

Sturm Graz13%

Expected goals 2.15 – 0.83

Bournemouth71%

Draw17%

Sturm Graz12%

Expected goals 2.41 – 0.90

Bournemouth64%

Draw20%

Sturm Graz16%

Expected goals 2.16 – 0.99

Bournemouth71%

Draw17%

Sturm Graz12%

Expected goals 2.45 – 0.90

Over 2.5 64% Both score 53% Likeliest score 2–0

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)

17°CMainly clear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 13 km/h
Humidity 88%

Referee · FranceJérôme Brisard

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 111

Team strength

Bournemouth

Sturm Graz

75 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 38

83 AttackIn forecast 32

82 DefenceIn forecast 37

53 Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bournemouth

Attack+41%

Defense risk−35%

Sturm Graz

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bournemouth

Sturm Graz

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.36 xGVia Att/Def 1.42

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.08

90% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.50 ShotsContext 16.90

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

35% On target shareContext 28%

7.20 Shots in the boxContext 10.20

60% Box shareContext 61%

10% ConversionContext 9%

2.38 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.20 Shots allowedContext 13.10

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20

3.89 BlocksContext 3.00

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.30

62% Save rateContext 83%

49% PossessionIn forecast 49%

413 PassesContext 333

335 Accurate passesContext 254

81% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.83 Team ratingContext 7.00

13.20 FoulsContext 11.80

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bournemouth DDWLL

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km301 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 53 · 5 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected

L10 OctA · Chelsea1–51.3 xPts
L20 SepH · Liverpool0–11.6 xPts
W17 SepA · Real Sociedad2–11.8 xPts
D12 SepH · Brentford2–21.7 xPts
D5 SepA · Newcastle2–21.3 xPts

Sturm Graz D

Rest29 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel1,326 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 46 · 1 pts vs 1.5 for an average club · -0.3 vs expected

D16 SepH · Rennes0–01.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bournemouth	Sturm Graz
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.2Premier League 2026-2027, 10 Oct	29UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 16 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,326 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	301 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Đ. Petrović(G)

6Julio Soler 14António Silva 18B. Diakité 15A. Smith

16M. Tavernier 12T. Adams 4L. Cook 11B. Doak

30Á. Rodríguez 9Evanilson

+10 more reported missing outside this XI

Sturm Graz Confirmed XI

5-3-2

53D. Khudyakov(G)

27L. Balbo 21P. Petrović 2J. Quarshie 23A. Malić 28Jurgen Heil

43J. Hödl 4J. Gorenc Stankovič 78V. Matoshi

26B. Beganović 19Simon Seidl

+11 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bournemouth Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.02 goals

Attack line −28.6% · Defence line −8.7% of weighted minutes

MID A. Scott Starter 7.09 Att −12.4% Def −8.2%
ATT E. Kroupi Rotation 6.78 Att −7.1%
ATT J. Kluivert Rotation 6.63 Att −4.7%
ATT A. Adli Rotation 6.83 Att −4.1%
DEF V. Milosavljević Depth 6.80 Def −0.4%
ATT D. Jebbison Depth 6.59 Att −0.3%

+1 more with impact, 3 without recent minutes (no impact): M. Aarons, J. Araujo, F. Forster

Sturm Graz Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.09 goals

Attack line −43.7% · Defence line −21.2% of weighted minutes

MID E. Soglo Core 7.25 Att −10.5% Def −6.1%
DEF A. Vallci Starter 6.91 Def −9.5%
MID O. Kiteishvili Starter 7.13 Att −6.3% Def −3.6%
ATT S. Jatta Starter 6.35 Att −11.9%
ATT S. Włodarczyk Starter 6.53 Att −7.8%
MID G. Mamageishvili Rotation 6.66 Att −1.7% Def −1.0%

+5 more with impact

Total impact vs full squads

Bournemouth+0.8 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Sturm Graz-0.5 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Bournemouth · Home No home games yet this season.

Sturm Graz · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Bournemouth	Sturm Graz	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.00
Conceded per game	1.00	0.00
Match goals	3.00	0.00	3.31
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	64%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	53%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	Bournemouth	Sturm Graz	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	0.80
Conceded per game	1.60	0.90
Match goals	2.80	1.70	3.31
Over 1.5	80%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	64%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	80%	10%	53%
Clean sheets	10%	50%
Failed to score	10%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bournemouth	Sturm Graz	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	5.00
Corners conceded	10.00	4.00
Match total	13.00	9.00	9.67
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	3.00
Opponent cards	3.00	0.00
Match total	6.00	3.00	3.71
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	Bournemouth	Sturm Graz	League
Corners
Corners won	4.30	5.40
Corners conceded	5.70	5.10
Match total	10.00	10.50	9.67
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.90	1.80
Opponent cards	1.90	1.50
Match total	4.80	3.30	3.71
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jérôme Brisard France · 111 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.50league 3.58

Red cards0.26league 0.12

Cards 5+35%league 38%

Fouls24.0league 24.7

Penalties0.32league 0.23

Home wins41%league 38%

Bournemouth

No previous matches with this referee.

Sturm Graz1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L9 Nov 23A · Atalanta0–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.