Brann
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Brann29.6%fair odds 3.38
Draw26.8%fair odds 3.73
Bologna43.6%fair odds 2.30
Expected goals1.19 – 1.50total 2.69
Likeliest score1–112.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Bologna
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Brann ↓ · Bologna → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 12.8 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Brann goals, columns Bologna goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.8%7.83
- 0–19.5%10.50
- 1–29.1%11.02
- 0–27.6%13.15
- 1–07.5%13.40
- 0–07.4%13.45
- 2–17.2%13.82
- 2–25.4%18.48
- 2–04.8%20.68
- 1–34.5%22.10
Winning margin
4.0%
Brann by 3+
fair 25.08
8.4%
Brann by 2
fair 11.85
17.2%
Brann by 1
fair 5.81
26.8%
Draw
fair 3.73
21.7%
Bologna by 1
fair 4.60
13.3%
Bologna by 2
fair 7.54
8.6%
Bologna by 3+
fair 11.68
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Brann goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
Bologna goals
22%0
34%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brann win | 29.6% | 29.9% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 26.8% | 27.4% | -0.6 pp |
| Bologna win | 43.6% | 42.7% | +0.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.4% | 48.1% | +2.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.7% | 53.0% | +1.7 pp |
| Expected goals Brann | 1.19 | 1.16 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals Bologna | 1.50 | 1.44 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Brann win29.6%3.38
- Draw26.8%3.73
- Bologna win43.6%2.30
- Double chance Brann or draw56.4%1.77
- Double chance Brann or Bologna73.2%1.37
- Double chance Bologna or draw70.4%1.42
- Draw no bet Brann40.5%2.47
- Draw no bet Bologna59.5%1.68
Goals
- Over 0.592.6%1.08
- Over 1.575.6%1.32
- Over 2.550.4%1.99
- Over 3.528.4%3.53
- Over 4.513.6%7.38
- Under 1.524.4%4.10
- Under 2.549.6%2.02
- Under 3.571.6%1.40
Both teams to score
- Yes54.7%1.83
- No45.3%2.21
- Yes and over 2.541.9%2.38
- Brann win and yes14.7%6.82
- Draw and yes19.4%5.16
- Bologna win and yes20.7%4.84
Team goals
- Brann over 0.569.7%1.44
- Brann over 1.533.5%2.99
- Brann over 2.511.9%8.40
- Bologna over 0.577.6%1.29
- Bologna over 1.544.1%2.27
- Bologna over 2.519.0%5.26
- Brann clean sheet22.4%4.46
- Bologna clean sheet30.3%3.30
- Brann win to nil15.0%6.68
- Bologna win to nil22.9%4.37
Handicap
- Brann −1.512.4%8.05
- Brann −2.54.0%25.08
- Bologna +1.587.6%1.14
- Bologna +2.596.0%1.04
- Bologna −1.521.8%4.58
- Brann +1.578.2%1.28
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.