Brann vs Bologna – 19 Feb 2026

UEFA Europa League Knockout round play-offs Thu, Feb 19 · 17:45 Brann Stadion, Bergen

Brann

0–1Full time

Bologna

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bologna were slight favourites.

Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Brann. Brann had 20.9 days of rest, Bologna 4 and had to travel 1,812 km.

Away travel1,812 kmRest days20.9 · 4Matches / 14d0 · 2

Brann30%

Draw27%

Bologna44%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.50

Brann27%

Draw26%

Bologna47%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.58

Brann29%

Draw27%

Bologna44%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.49

Brann23%

Draw25%

Bologna51%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.68

Brann30%

Draw27%

Bologna43%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.44

Over 2.5 50% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bergen)

No weather data yet

Referee · SloveniaRade Obrenovič

Cards per match 4.9
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 20

Team strength

Brann

Bologna

23 L90 StrengthIn forecast 50

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

21 AttackIn forecast 35

30 DefenceIn forecast 48

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brann

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bologna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brann

Bologna

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.41 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

+0.09 Goals minus xGContext +0.21

70% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.50 ShotsContext 15.30

5.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

40% On target shareContext 28%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.44

67% Box shareContext 63%

12% ConversionContext 9%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.63

12.40 Shots allowedContext 9.00

4.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

3.22 BlocksContext 2.63

3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

74% Save rateContext 58%

48% PossessionIn forecast 56%

372 PassesContext 441

287 Accurate passesContext 368

77% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.77

11.00 FoulsContext 11.90

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.30

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brann

Rest20.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Bologna

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,812 km590 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brann	Bologna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	20.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan	4Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,812 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	590 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	1 / 2 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	4.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brann Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1M. Dyngeland(G)

17J. Soltvedt 4N. Boakye 3F. Knudsen 21D. De Roeve

8F. Myhre 18J. Sørensen 10K. Ingason

16J. Þorsteinsson 29N. Holm 14U. Mathisen

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Bologna Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Ł. Skorupski(G)

33Juan Miranda 26J. Lucumí 41M. Vitík 20N. Zortea

6N. Moro 8R. Freuler 19L. Ferguson

28N. Cambiaghi 9S. Castro 10F. Bernardeschi

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brann Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Bologna Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brann+0.7 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Bologna-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Brann · Home No home games yet this season.

Bologna · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Brann wins1 draws0 Bologna wins

Goals per game0.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 100%

6 Nov 2025Bologna0–0Brann

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brann	Bologna	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.69
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	50%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	55%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Brann	Bologna	Forecast
Scored per game	1.13	1.40
Conceded per game	1.38	1.70
Match goals	2.50	3.10	2.69
Over 1.5	63%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	50%
Over 3.5	25%	30%
Both teams scored	38%	60%	55%
Clean sheets	38%	10%
Failed to score	38%	30%
Games	8	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brann	Bologna
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Brann	Bologna
Corners
Corners won	4.70	5.33
Corners conceded	5.90	4.00
Match total	10.60	9.33
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.90
Opponent cards	2.10	1.70
Match total	3.40	3.60
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Rade Obrenovič Slovenia · 20 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.65

Red cards0.20

Cards 5+50%

Fouls22.6

Penalties0.25

Home wins45%

Brann1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.6.0 · 5.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D30 Jul 25A · Red Bull Salzburg1–16

Bologna

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.