Brann
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Midtjylland were slight favourites.
FC Midtjylland were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 23). Brann had 41.9 days of rest, FC Midtjylland 42 and had to travel 519 km.
Away travel519 kmRest days41.9 · 42Matches / 14d0 · 0
Brann25%
Draw25%
FC Midtjylland50%
Brann25%
Draw26%
FC Midtjylland49%
Brann25%
Draw25%
FC Midtjylland50%
Brann19%
Draw23%
FC Midtjylland57%
Brann25%
Draw26%
FC Midtjylland49%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bergen)
No weather data yet
RefereeGeorgi Kabakov
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 27
Team strength
Brann
FC Midtjylland
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
21
AttackIn forecast
37
30
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Midtjylland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BrannFC Midtjylland
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.17
1.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.83
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.69
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.48
67%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.83
ShotsContext
12.67
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.83
29%
On target shareContext
46%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
61%
Box shareContext
70%
10%
ConversionContext
17%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.67
Shots allowedContext
12.00
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.83
4.40
BlocksContext
3.40
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
78%
Save rateContext
83%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
385
PassesContext
379
305
Accurate passesContext
302
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.84
Team ratingContext
7.00
11.33
FoulsContext
15.33
9.17
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.63
70%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.63
ShotsContext
15.00
4.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
39%
On target shareContext
39%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
10.33
61%
Box shareContext
69%
14%
ConversionContext
17%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.30
12.38
Shots allowedContext
9.90
4.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
3.57
BlocksContext
2.89
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
77%
Save rateContext
82%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
385
PassesContext
430
305
Accurate passesContext
349
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.84
Team ratingContext
7.01
12.13
FoulsContext
13.60
9.38
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Brann
Rest41.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Midtjylland
Rest42 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel519 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Brann |
FC Midtjylland |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 41.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec | 42UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 519 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Brann
Confirmed XI
1M. Dyngeland(G)
20V. Dragsnes
4N. Boakye
3F. Knudsen
21D. De Roeve
32M. Haaland
23T. Pedersen
18J. Sørensen
10E. Kornvig
29N. Holm
14U. Mathisen
FC Midtjylland
Confirmed XI
16E. Ólafsson(G)
55V. Bak Jensen
22M. Bech
6M. Erlić
3H. Lee
58D. Şimşir
8P. Billing
20V. Byskov
21D. Castillo
10G. Cho
74Júnior Brumado
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Brann
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Midtjylland
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Brann+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- FC Midtjylland-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Brann · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
FC Midtjylland · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Brann | FC Midtjylland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 0.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.17 | 3.00 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Brann | FC Midtjylland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 0.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.17 | 3.00 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Brann | FC Midtjylland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.83 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.33 | 5.17 | |
| Match total | 11.16 | 10.67 | 8.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.16 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Brann | FC Midtjylland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.63 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 10.63 | 10.60 | 8.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.20 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Georgi Kabakov 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.78league 4.09
Red cards0.22league 0.20
Cards 5+52%league 42%
Fouls20.5league 24.4
Penalties0.11league 0.35
Home wins33%league 50%
Brann1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W7 Aug 25A · BK Hacken2–03
FC Midtjylland1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W23 Oct 25A · Maccabi Tel Aviv3–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Brann6 games · scored 6 · conceded 7
1
0-15
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
FC Midtjylland6 games · scored 13 · conceded 5
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Brann10 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
FC Midtjylland10 games · scored 25 · conceded 9
4
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
2
31-45
6
46-60
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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