Brann vs Utrecht – 2 Oct 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 2 · 17:45 Brann Stadion, Bergen

Brann 26th · 0 pts · 1 played L

1–0Full time

Utrecht 29th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Utrecht were slight favourites.

Utrecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 19). Absences weigh more on Utrecht. Brann had 7 days of rest, Utrecht 4.2 and had to travel 923 km.

Away travel923 kmRest days7 · 4.2Matches / 14d1 · 3

Brann32%

Draw27%

Utrecht41%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.48

Brann30%

Draw27%

Utrecht43%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.48

Brann31%

Draw26%

Utrecht43%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.52

Brann26%

Draw26%

Utrecht49%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.66

Brann32%

Draw27%

Utrecht41%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.44

Over 2.5 52% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bergen)

No weather data yet

Referee · AzerbaijanAliyar Aghayev

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 5

Team strength

Brann

Utrecht

19 L90 StrengthIn forecast 38

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

21 AttackIn forecast 32

30 DefenceIn forecast 31

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brann

Attack—

Defense risk—

Utrecht

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brann

Utrecht

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

— xGVia Att/Def 1.33

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.21

— Goals minus xGContext -0.03

80% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.50 ShotsContext 13.44

4.83 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

42% On target shareContext 37%

5.67 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

53% Box shareContext 62%

17% ConversionContext 9%

2.25 OffsidesContext 1.57

12.67 Shots allowedContext 10.11

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56

2.83 BlocksContext 4.00

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

63% Save rateContext 72%

55% PossessionIn forecast 50%

476 PassesContext 433

387 Accurate passesContext 350

81% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.65 Team ratingContext 6.94

11.83 FoulsContext 10.56

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.11

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brann

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km2,191 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Utrecht

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel923 km264 km in 14d

Schedule load27%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brann	Utrecht
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Moderate · 27
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 25 Sep	4.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 28 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	923 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,191 km	264 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	2 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	21	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brann Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1M. Dyngeland(G)

20V. Dragsnes 26E. Helland 3F. Knudsen 21D. De Roeve

8F. Myhre 18J. Sørensen 10E. Kornvig

19E. Guðmundsson 22S. Magnússon 14U. Mathisen

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Utrecht Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1V. Barkas(G)

16S. El Karouani 24N. Viergever 3M. van der Hoorn 2S. Horemans

14Z. Iqbal 27A. Engwanda

15A. Blake 21G. Zechiël 22Miguel Rodríguez

9D. Min

+12 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brann Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Utrecht Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brann+1.5 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Utrecht-1.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Brann · Home No home games yet this season.

Utrecht · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Brann	Utrecht	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	3.00	1.00	2.75
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	52%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	Brann	Utrecht	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.63
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	3.00	2.63	2.75
Over 1.5	100%	63%
Over 2.5	100%	50%	52%
Over 3.5	0%	38%
Both teams scored	100%	38%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	25%
Failed to score	0%	38%
Games	1	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brann	Utrecht	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.00
Corners conceded	11.00	5.00
Match total	15.00	9.00	9.28
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.00
Opponent cards	1.00	4.00
Match total	3.00	6.00	4.50
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1

	Brann	Utrecht	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	4.78
Corners conceded	6.00	4.33
Match total	9.50	9.11	9.28
Over 8.5	50% 3/6	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	50% 3/6	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	50% 3/6	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.80	1.90
Opponent cards	2.30	2.90
Match total	5.10	4.80	4.50
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Aliyar Aghayev Azerbaijan · 5 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.40league 4.39

Red cards0.00league 0.11

Cards 5+60%league 56%

Fouls26.8league 26.3

Penalties0.20league 0.22

Home wins20%league 39%

Brann

No previous matches with this referee.

Utrecht

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.