Brentford vs Aston Villa – 23 Aug 2025

Premier League Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 23 · 15:00 Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Middlesex

Brentford 17th · 0 pts · 1 played L

1–0Full time

Aston Villa 13th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 69). Brentford had 6 days of rest, Aston Villa 7.1 and had to travel 155 km.

Away travel155 kmRest days6 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Brentford34%

Draw26%

Aston Villa39%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.47

Brentford34%

Draw27%

Aston Villa39%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.40

Brentford34%

Draw26%

Aston Villa40%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.46

Brentford28%

Draw25%

Aston Villa47%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.65

Brentford34%

Draw27%

Aston Villa39%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.41

Over 2.5 54% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brentford, Middlesex)

No weather data yet

RefereeTony Harrington

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 70

Team strength

Brentford

Aston Villa

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 82

75 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

73 AttackIn forecast 83

73 DefenceIn forecast 78

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Aston Villa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Brentford

Aston Villa

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.65 xGVia Att/Def 1.34

1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.26

90% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 50%

11.10 ShotsContext 11.90

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

40% On target shareContext 40%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

83% Box shareContext 70%

15% ConversionContext 13%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.57

15.30 Shots allowedContext 13.70

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

5.30 BlocksContext 3.60

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

69% Save rateContext 83%

47% PossessionIn forecast 43%

367 PassesContext 365

292 Accurate passesContext 301

80% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.97 Team ratingContext 7.01

10.70 FoulsContext 9.20

9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brentford

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km346 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Aston Villa

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel155 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Brentford	Aston Villa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Premier League 2025-2026, 17 Aug	7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 16 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	155 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	346 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7	8.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Kelleher(G)

23K. Lewis-Potter 4S. van den Berg 22N. Collins 33M. Kayode

6J. Henderson 18Y. Yarmoliuk

7K. Schade 24M. Damsgaard 19D. Ouattara

9Thiago

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Aston Villa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

23E. Martínez(G)

12L. Digne 14Pau Torres 5T. Mings 2M. Cash

24A. Onana 44B. Kamara

27M. Rogers 8Y. Tielemans 7J. McGinn

11O. Watkins

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Brentford Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Aston Villa Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Brentford+0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Aston Villa-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Brentford · Home No home games yet this season.

Aston Villa · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 Brentford wins3 draws4 Aston Villa wins

Goals per game1.13 – 2.00 Over 2.563% Both scored75% Clean sheets0% · 25%

8 Mar 2025Brentford0–1Aston Villa
4 Dec 2024Aston Villa3–1Brentford
6 Apr 2024Aston Villa3–3Brentford
17 Dec 2023Brentford1–2Aston Villa
22 Apr 2023Brentford1–1Aston Villa
23 Oct 2022Aston Villa4–0Brentford

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Brentford	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.00
Conceded per game	3.00	0.00
Match goals	4.00	0.00	2.84
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	54%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	Brentford	Aston Villa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.00
Conceded per game	3.00	0.00
Match goals	4.00	0.00	2.84
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	54%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Brentford	Aston Villa	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	3.00
Corners conceded	5.00	6.00
Match total	10.00	9.00	10.08
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.00
Opponent cards	1.00	1.00
Match total	3.00	3.00	3.08
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Brentford	Aston Villa	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	5.22
Corners conceded	5.80	5.22
Match total	10.40	10.44	10.08
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.80
Opponent cards	2.30	2.30
Match total	4.60	4.10	3.08
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Tony Harrington 70 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.70league 3.00

Red cards0.13league 0.08

Cards 5+29%league 33%

Fouls21.4league 21.3

Penalties0.26league 0.25

Home wins44%league 42%

Brentford1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W26 Jan 25A · Crystal Palace2–12

Aston Villa2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

W17 Aug 24A · West Ham2–12
W16 Sep 22H · Southampton1–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.