Brentford
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Brentford were slight favourites.
Brentford were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 62). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for West Ham. Brentford had 4.8 days of rest, West Ham 7 and had to travel 13 km.
Away travel13 kmRest days4.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Brentford48%
Draw25%
West Ham27%
Brentford51%
Draw25%
West Ham23%
Brentford49%
Draw25%
West Ham26%
Brentford40%
Draw26%
West Ham34%
Brentford47%
Draw26%
West Ham27%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brentford, Middlesex)
No weather data yet
RefereeCraig Pawson
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 144
Team strength
Brentford
West Ham
73
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
75
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
73
AttackIn forecast
68
73
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWest Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BrentfordWest Ham
1.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.24
1.35
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
68%
Scored inContext
68%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
10.65
ShotsContext
10.32
3.94
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.81
37%
On target shareContext
34%
8.23
Shots in the boxContext
7.57
73%
Box shareContext
70%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
2.08
OffsidesContext
2.17
12.56
Shots allowedContext
14.97
4.12
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.15
4.33
BlocksContext
4.56
2.97
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.53
68%
Save rateContext
69%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
399
PassesContext
371
316
Accurate passesContext
293
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.82
10.74
FoulsContext
10.97
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.68
1.82
Yellow cardsContext
1.74
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
-0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.09
60%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.50
ShotsContext
10.00
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
32%
On target shareContext
33%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.33
73%
Box shareContext
73%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.44
12.20
Shots allowedContext
14.90
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.67
BlocksContext
4.80
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
59%
Save rateContext
76%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
419
PassesContext
362
328
Accurate passesContext
285
78%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.82
Team ratingContext
7.02
10.20
FoulsContext
10.60
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.10
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Brentford
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km515 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
West Ham
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel13 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Brentford |
West Ham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.8Premier League 2025-2026, 27 Apr | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 13 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 515 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Brentford
Confirmed XI
1C. Kelleher(G)
23K. Lewis-Potter
22N. Collins
4S. van den Berg
33M. Kayode
8M. Jensen
18Y. Yarmoliuk
7K. Schade
24M. Damsgaard
19D. Ouattara
9Thiago
West Ham
Confirmed XI
1M. Hermansen(G)
12E. Diouf
4A. Disasi
15K. Mavropanos
2K. Walker-Peters
7C. Summerville
18Mateus Fernandes
28T. Souček
20J. Bowen
19Pablo
11V. Castellanos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Brentford
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
West Ham
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Brentford-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- West Ham+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Brentford · Home
1.65points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-7-3
- Scored
- 1.65
- Conceded
- 1.12
West Ham · Away
1.00points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-8
- Scored
- 1.06
- Conceded
- 1.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Brentford | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Fulham | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Everton | D 2–2 HW 4–2 A | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Leeds | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Wolves | D 2–2 HW 2–0 A | W 4–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Bournemouth | D 0–0 AW 4–1 H | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Burnley | W 4–3 AW 3–1 H | W 2–0 AW 3–2 H |
| Brighton | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Arsenal | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Newcastle | W 3–2 AW 3–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Aston Villa | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | L 0–2 AL 2–3 H |
| Nottingham Forest | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Chelsea | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | L 2–3 AL 1–5 H |
| Sunderland | W 3–0 HL 1–2 A | W 3–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Tottenham | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Crystal Palace | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Liverpool | W 3–2 H | L 2–5 AL 0–2 H |
| Manchester City | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Points | 45 of 99 · 1.36 per game | 36 of 99 · 1.09 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
7 Brentford wins1 draws1 West Ham wins
Goals per game1.89 – 0.89
Over 2.533%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets56% · 0%
- 20 Oct 2025West Ham0–2Brentford
- 15 Feb 2025West Ham0–1Brentford
- 28 Sep 2024Brentford1–1West Ham
- 26 Feb 2024West Ham4–2Brentford
- 4 Nov 2023Brentford3–2West Ham
- 14 May 2023Brentford2–0West Ham
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Brentford | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 1.24 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.35 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 2.79 | 2.94 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 59% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 56% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 32% | |
| Games | 34 | 34 |
| Brentford | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.30 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Brentford | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.06 | 5.15 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.06 | 6.27 | |
| Match total | 10.12 | 11.42 | 10.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 23/33 | 76% 25/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 64% 21/33 | 70% 23/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 55% 18/33 | 64% 21/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.85 | 1.82 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.82 | 1.94 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 3.76 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 18/34 | 53% 18/34 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 13/34 | 29% 10/34 | |
| Brentford | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 10.70 | 10.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.70 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Craig Pawson 144 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.90league 3.78
Red cards0.10league 0.12
Cards 5+38%league 39%
Fouls22.7league 21.5
Penalties0.22league 0.21
Home wins41%league 42%
Brentford5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D3 Mar 26A · Bournemouth0–01
- W27 Sep 25H · Manchester United3–12
- D25 May 25A · Wolves1–11
- L16 Sep 23A · Newcastle0–15
- W2 Jan 22H · Aston Villa2–12
West Ham10 with this referee
Record6-1-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.2
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W31 Aug 25A · Nottingham Forest3–00
- W14 Jan 25H · Fulham3–23
- W25 Nov 24A · Newcastle2–00
- W2 Mar 24A · Everton3–12
- L11 Feb 24H · Arsenal0–64
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Brentford34 games · scored 49 · conceded 46
7
5
0-15
6
8
16-30
9
10
31-45
5
4
46-60
5
5
61-75
17
14
76-90
West Ham34 games · scored 42 · conceded 58
9
9
0-15
3
3
16-30
9
11
31-45
4
9
46-60
6
13
61-75
11
13
76-90
Brentford10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
