Premier League Gameweek 29 Wed, Mar 4 2026 · 19:30 The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
Brighton
0–1 Full time · HT 0–1 xG 0.82 – 0.47
Arsenal
  • 9’ B. Saka
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Saka goal decides it for Arsenal

Arsenal entered as favourites and won 1–0 through a Saka goal. Arsenal won despite the lower xG; Brighton created the better chances (0.82 vs 0.47). On the chances created, Brighton deserved more: 1.6 expected points against the 0 points they took.

Brighton26%
Draw27%
Arsenal ✓47%

Model vs reality

Brighton goals
0
Model 1.10 · xG 0.82
Arsenal goals
1
Model 1.55 · xG 0.47
Total goals
1
Model 2.65 · xG 1.29
Score 0–1
10%
Most likely 1–1 (13%)
Over 2.5
No
Model 49%
Both scored
No
Model 53%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchGabriel MagalhãesArsenal
8.3
  • RefereeChris Kavanagh
  • VenueThe American Express Community Stadium
  • Table before kick-offBrighton 12th · Arsenal 1st

Timeline

  1. B. Saka 0–1Assist J. Timber
    9’
  2. Cristhian MosqueraYellow card · Foul
    11’
  3. Half time · 0–1
  4. ⇄ Y. MintehFor K. Mitoma
    46’
  5. D. GómezYellow card · Foul
    52’
  6. ⇄ K. HavertzFor V. Gyökeres
    59’
  7. ⇄ L. TrossardFor Gabriel Martinelli
    60’
  8. ⇄ R. CalafioriFor Cristhian Mosquera
    64’
  9. ⇄ D. WelbeckFor J. Hinshelwood
    69’
  10. ⇄ J. VeltmanFor M. Wieffer
    77’
  11. ⇄ Harry HowellFor D. Gómez
    77’
  12. ⇄ Y. AyariFor C. Baleba
    78’
  13. O. BoscagliYellow card · Argument
    80’
  14. ⇄ C. NørgaardFor Martín Zubimendi
    80’
  15. F. KadıoğluYellow card · Off the ball foul
    81’
  16. Y. AyariYellow card · Foul
    90+4’
  17. Full time · 0–1

Team stats

Brighton11 shots · 6 in box, 5 outside
Arsenal7 shots · 6 in box, 1 outside
BrightonArsenal
60% Possession 40%
0.82 Expected goals (xG) 0.47
1.63 Expected points (xPts) 0.98
11 Shots 7
3 Shots on target 2
3 Shots off target 4
5 Blocked shots 1
6 Shots inside the box 6
5 Shots outside the box 1
470 Passes 322
82% Pass accuracy 70%
4 Corners 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
14 Fouls 12
3 Offsides 0
4 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
6.74 Team rating 7.16

Line-ups

Brighton 4-2-3-1

15.7 B. Verbruggen(G)
246.2 F. Kadıoğlu 217.2 O. Boscagli 67.3 J. van Hecke 277.3 M. Wieffer ↓77’
307.7 P. Groß 176.5 C. Baleba ↓78’
226.6 K. Mitoma ↓46’ 135.9 J. Hinshelwood ↓69’ 256.2 D. Gómez ↓77’
107.2 G. Rutter
  • 1B. Verbruggen (G)5.7
  • 24F. Kadıoğlu6.2
  • 21O. Boscagli7.2
  • 6J. van Hecke7.3
  • 27M. Wieffer↓77’7.3
  • 30P. Groß7.7
  • 17C. Baleba↓78’6.5
  • 22K. Mitoma↓46’6.6
  • 13J. Hinshelwood↓69’5.9
  • 25D. Gómez↓77’6.2
  • 10G. Rutter7.2

Substitutes used

  • 18D. Welbeck↑69’6.2
  • 34J. Veltman↑77’6.9
  • 26Y. Ayari↑78’6.3
  • 11Y. Minteh↑46’7.2
  • 53Harry Howell↑77’6.3

Unused: J. Steele, J. Milner, M. O'Riley, M. De Cuyper

Arsenal 4-2-3-1

17.9 David Raya(G)
57.0 P. Hincapié 68.3★ Gabriel Magalhães 37.3 Cristhian Mosquera ↓64’ 127.3 J. Timber A
417.6 D. Rice 366.9 Martín Zubimendi ↓80’
116.2 Gabriel Martinelli ↓60’ 107.0 E. Eze 77.2 B. Saka
145.9 V. Gyökeres ↓59’
  • 1David Raya (G)7.9
  • 5P. Hincapié7.0
  • 6Gabriel Magalhães ★8.3
  • 3Cristhian Mosquera↓64’7.3
  • 12J. TimberA7.3
  • 41D. Rice7.6
  • 36Martín Zubimendi↓80’6.9
  • 11Gabriel Martinelli↓60’6.2
  • 10E. Eze7.0
  • 7B. Saka7.2
  • 14V. Gyökeres↓59’5.9

Substitutes used

  • 29K. Havertz↑59’6.7
  • 16C. Nørgaard↑80’6.3
  • 19L. Trossard↑60’6.5
  • 33R. Calafiori↑64’6.7

Unused: Kepa, G. de Jesus, C. Madueke, M. Lewis-Skelly, M. Dowman

Player stats

Top rated
Gabriel MagalhãesArsenal8.3
2nd
David RayaArsenal7.9
3rd
P. GroßBrighton7.7

Brighton

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
B. Verbruggen G 90 0 0 1 sv 0 70% 40 0 0 0/0 0/0 5.7
F. Kadıoğlu M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 82% 39 0 1 1/3 0/2 6.2
O. Boscagli D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 81% 89 2 1 1/1 1/1 7.2
J. van Hecke D 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 89% 72 4 1 0/1 0/0 7.3
M. Wieffer M 77 0 0 1 (1) 0 90% 31 3 2 0/0 1/1 7.3
P. Groß M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 89% 53 3 0 0/1 0/2 7.7
C. Baleba M 78 0 0 2 (1) 0 87% 23 0 2 0/1 1/0 6.5
K. Mitoma M 46 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 9 1 1 0/0 2/1 6.6
J. Hinshelwood M 69 0 0 2 (0) 1 67% 15 0 0 0/0 2/0 5.9
D. Gómez M 77 0 0 0 (0) 1 74% 31 5 0 0/1 4/0 6.2
G. Rutter F 90 0 0 1 (1) 2 69% 32 3 2 0/0 0/4 7.2
D. Welbeck F 21 0 0 0 (0) 0 50% 2 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.2
J. Veltman D 13 0 0 0 (0) 0 83% 6 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.9
Y. Ayari M 12 0 0 0 (0) 0 90% 10 0 0 0/1 2/0 6.3
Y. Minteh F 44 0 0 0 (0) 1 82% 11 1 1 3/4 0/1 7.2
Harry Howell M 13 0 0 0 (0) 0 86% 7 1 0 0/0 0/0 6.3

Arsenal

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
David Raya G 90 0 0 2 sv 0 58% 43 0 0 0/0 0/1 7.9
P. Hincapié D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 76% 21 3 1 1/2 0/1 7.0
Gabriel Magalhães D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 74% 34 1 0 0/0 1/2 8.3
Cristhian Mosquera D 64 0 0 0 (0) 0 91% 34 1 1 0/0 2/1 7.3
J. Timber D 90 0 1 0 (0) 2 62% 21 5 3 0/0 2/1 7.3
D. Rice M 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 74% 54 1 0 1/1 0/1 7.6
Martín Zubimendi M 80 0 0 1 (0) 0 91% 23 1 1 1/1 1/0 6.9
Gabriel Martinelli F 60 0 0 1 (0) 0 50% 6 0 0 0/2 0/1 6.2
E. Eze M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 88% 25 1 0 0/0 0/3 7.0
B. Saka F 90 1 0 2 (1) 0 50% 14 1 2 1/4 3/0 7.2
V. Gyökeres F 59 0 0 0 (0) 1 47% 15 0 0 0/1 3/0 5.9
K. Havertz M 31 0 0 1 (1) 0 50% 10 0 0 0/0 0/2 6.7
C. Nørgaard M 10 0 0 0 (0) 0 33% 3 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
L. Trossard F 30 0 0 1 (0) 1 50% 10 1 0 1/3 0/1 6.5
R. Calafiori D 26 0 0 0 (0) 0 56% 9 1 0 0/0 0/0 6.7

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.