Brighton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Premier League
Gameweek 29 Wed, Mar 4 · 19:30
The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
Our take
Arsenal were slight favourites.
Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 76). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Brighton. Brighton had 3.2 days of rest, Arsenal 3.1 and had to travel 72 km.
Away travel72 kmRest days3.2 · 3.1Matches / 14d2 · 3
Brighton26%
Draw27%
Arsenal47%
Brighton21%
Draw25%
Arsenal54%
Brighton25%
Draw26%
Arsenal48%
Brighton21%
Draw25%
Arsenal55%
Brighton26%
Draw28%
Arsenal46%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)
No weather data yet
RefereeChris Kavanagh
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 155
Team strength
Brighton
Arsenal
76
L90 StrengthIn forecast
94
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
94
87
AttackIn forecast
86
85
DefenceIn forecast
95
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArsenal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BrightonArsenal
1.36
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.76
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
1.71
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.70
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
79%
Scored inContext
90%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
45%
12.82
ShotsContext
14.55
4.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.97
35%
On target shareContext
34%
8.18
Shots in the boxContext
10.93
65%
Box shareContext
75%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
2.36
OffsidesContext
2.15
12.32
Shots allowedContext
7.66
3.96
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.75
3.63
BlocksContext
2.92
2.82
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.14
71%
Save rateContext
76%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
472
PassesContext
476
397
Accurate passesContext
403
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.04
12.04
FoulsContext
10.10
10.29
Fouls sufferedContext
10.66
2.43
Yellow cardsContext
1.34
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.82
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.69
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.58
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.60
ShotsContext
14.60
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
36%
On target shareContext
36%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
10.60
70%
Box shareContext
74%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.33
12.40
Shots allowedContext
7.60
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.78
4.00
BlocksContext
2.75
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
77%
Save rateContext
84%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
485
PassesContext
445
406
Accurate passesContext
370
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.99
11.70
FoulsContext
11.20
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Brighton
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km142 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Arsenal
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel72 km363 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Brighton |
Arsenal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Moderate · 23 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 3.1Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 72 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 142 km | 363 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.8 | 9.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Brighton
Confirmed XI
1B. Verbruggen(G)
24F. Kadıoğlu
21O. Boscagli
6J. van Hecke
27M. Wieffer
30P. Groß
17C. Baleba
22K. Mitoma
13J. Hinshelwood
25D. Gómez
10G. Rutter
Arsenal
Confirmed XI
1David Raya(G)
5P. Hincapié
6Gabriel Magalhães
3Cristhian Mosquera
12J. Timber
41D. Rice
36Martín Zubimendi
11Gabriel Martinelli
10E. Eze
7B. Saka
14V. Gyökeres
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Brighton
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Arsenal
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Brighton+1.2 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Arsenal-1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Brighton · Home
1.71points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-6-2
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 1.07
Arsenal · Away
1.93points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-5-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.87
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Brighton | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Brentford | W 2–0 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Aston Villa | L 0–1 AL 3–4 H | W 4–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Crystal Palace | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Everton | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Fulham | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Bournemouth | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | W 3–2 A |
| Manchester City | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Burnley | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| West Ham | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Sunderland | D 0–0 H | W 3–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Liverpool | L 0–2 A | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Leeds | W 3–0 H | W 4–0 AW 5–0 H |
| Manchester United | L 2–4 A | L 2–3 HW 1–0 A |
| Newcastle | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Wolves | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Chelsea | W 3–1 A | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Tottenham | D 2–2 H | W 4–1 AW 4–1 H |
| Points | 37 of 81 · 1.37 per game | 61 of 84 · 2.18 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
2 Brighton wins3 draws5 Arsenal wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.60
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 27 Dec 2025Arsenal2–1Brighton
- 4 Jan 2025Brighton1–1Arsenal
- 31 Aug 2024Arsenal1–1Brighton
- 6 Apr 2024Brighton0–3Arsenal
- 17 Dec 2023Arsenal2–0Brighton
- 14 May 2023Arsenal0–3Brighton
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Brighton | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.36 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 0.76 | |
| Match goals | 2.61 | 2.76 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 55% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 52% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 45% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 10% | |
| Games | 28 | 29 |
| Brighton | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.10 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 70% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Brighton | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.86 | 5.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.71 | 3.48 | |
| Match total | 9.57 | 9.37 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 16/28 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 15/28 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 12/28 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 1.34 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.07 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.24 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 20/28 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 12/28 | 21% 6/29 | |
| Brighton | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 6.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 10.45 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.20 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Chris Kavanagh 155 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.86league 3.76
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+37%league 39%
Fouls21.8league 21.5
Penalties0.23league 0.21
Home wins39%league 43%
Brighton9 with this referee
Record3-4-2
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.7
Pens for · against2 · 3
- D31 Jan 26H · Everton1–11
- W22 Nov 25H · Brentford2–14
- D20 Sep 25H · Tottenham2–21
- W14 Feb 25H · Chelsea3–01
- D31 Aug 24A · Arsenal1–12
Arsenal17 with this referee
Record9-5-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- W3 Jan 26A · Bournemouth3–21
- W1 Nov 25A · Burnley2–01
- L31 Aug 25A · Liverpool0–12
- W20 Apr 25A · Ipswich4–00
- W16 Mar 25H · Chelsea1–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Brighton28 games · scored 38 · conceded 35
5
4
0-15
4
6
16-30
5
8
31-45
4
4
46-60
8
5
61-75
12
8
76-90
Arsenal29 games · scored 58 · conceded 22
5
2
0-15
5
16-30
11
6
31-45
14
3
46-60
10
3
61-75
13
8
76-90
Brighton10 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
3
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Arsenal10 games · scored 24 · conceded 11
4
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
5
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
