Brighton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Premier League
Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 19 · 15:00
The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
Our take
Arsenal were slight favourites.
Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (95 vs 78). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Brighton. Brighton had 6 days of rest, Arsenal 6.8 and had to travel 72 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel72 kmRest days6 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 3
Brighton26%
Draw22%
Arsenal51%
Brighton22%
Draw24%
Arsenal54%
Brighton26%
Draw23%
Arsenal51%
Brighton20%
Draw20%
Arsenal59%
Brighton26%
Draw23%
Arsenal51%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)
18°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 28 km/h
- Humidity 86%
RefereeDarren England
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 125
Team strength
Brighton
Arsenal
78
L90 StrengthIn forecast
95
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
94
87
AttackIn forecast
86
85
DefenceIn forecast
95
75
Form indexContext
97
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArsenal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BrightonArsenal
3.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.25
2.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.71
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.68
+0.70
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
75%
19.50
ShotsContext
13.50
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
31%
On target shareContext
41%
13.25
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
69%
Box shareContext
69%
17%
ConversionContext
15%
4.00
OffsidesContext
4.50
11.75
Shots allowedContext
9.00
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.00
BlocksContext
2.25
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
59%
Save rateContext
78%
71%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
600
PassesContext
498
533
Accurate passesContext
435
89%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.21
Team ratingContext
7.24
13.00
FoulsContext
10.00
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
16.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.30
2.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.81
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
80%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
70%
16.20
ShotsContext
14.50
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
35%
On target shareContext
32%
11.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
74%
Box shareContext
66%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
2.43
OffsidesContext
3.00
10.20
Shots allowedContext
9.30
4.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
2.63
BlocksContext
2.60
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
66%
Save rateContext
83%
65%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
549
PassesContext
486
476
Accurate passesContext
419
87%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.98
Team ratingContext
7.09
12.00
FoulsContext
10.90
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Brighton
WLDW
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km396 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 75 · 7 pts vs 4.0 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected
Arsenal
WWWWW
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel72 km4,007 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 97 · 15 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · +4.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Brighton |
Arsenal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 25 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Premier League 2026-2027, 13 Sep | 6.8Premier League 2026-2027, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 72 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 396 km | 4,007 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21 | 20.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Brighton
Confirmed XI
1B. Verbruggen(G)
21O. Boscagli
4P. Struijk
44L. Vušković
24F. Kadıoğlu
13P. Groß
14Chema Andrés
29M. De Cuyper
26Y. Ayari
25D. Gómez
19C. Kostoulas
Arsenal
Confirmed XI
1David Raya(G)
33R. Calafiori
6Gabriel Magalhães
15E. Konsa
12J. Timber
39Bruno Guimarães
41D. Rice
17C. Tzolis
8M. Ødegaard
7B. Saka
29K. Havertz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Brighton
Absences are shown before kick-off
Arsenal
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Brighton+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Arsenal-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Brighton · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Arsenal · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Brighton | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry | W 5–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Chelsea | L 3–4 A | W 2–1 H |
| Aston Villa | W 4–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
2 Brighton wins3 draws5 Arsenal wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 4 Mar 2026Brighton0–1Arsenal
- 27 Dec 2025Arsenal2–1Brighton
- 4 Jan 2025Brighton1–1Arsenal
- 31 Aug 2024Arsenal1–1Brighton
- 6 Apr 2024Brighton0–3Arsenal
- 17 Dec 2023Arsenal2–0Brighton
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Brighton | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.25 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 0.25 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 2.25 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 25% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 75% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Brighton | Arsenal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 1.90 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 80% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Brighton | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 7.50 | 9.44 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 4.25 | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Brighton | Arsenal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.44 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 10.77 | 7.80 | 9.44 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Darren England 125 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.23league 3.81
Red cards0.11league 0.12
Cards 5+42%league 38%
Fouls22.2league 23.2
Penalties0.26league 0.19
Home wins43%league 33%
Brighton12 with this referee
Record5-5-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W21 Mar 26H · Liverpool2–15
- D20 Dec 25H · Sunderland0–02
- W31 Aug 25H · Manchester City2–12
- W26 Apr 25H · West Ham3–21
- D11 May 24A · Newcastle1–14
Arsenal8 with this referee
Record6-1-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W1 Mar 26H · Chelsea2–11
- W30 Dec 25H · Aston Villa4–12
- W13 Sep 25H · Nottingham Forest3–01
- D5 Apr 25A · Everton1–11
- W27 Dec 24H · Ipswich1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Brighton4 games · scored 13 · conceded 5
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
76-90
Arsenal3 games · scored 7 · conceded 1
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
3
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Brighton10 games · scored 22 · conceded 14
4
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
Arsenal9 games · scored 14 · conceded 3
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
