Premier League Gameweek 20 Tue, Jan 5 · 19:30 The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
Brighton 3rd · 16 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Bournemouth 15th · 6 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel128 kmRest days3.3 · 3.1Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Brighton—%
Draw—%
Bournemouth—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)

Forecast from 21 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Brighton and Bournemouth. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

BrightonBournemouth
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
83 Current StrengthIn forecast 77
87 AttackIn forecast 83
85 DefenceIn forecast 82
94 Form indexContext 74
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Brighton

Attack—
Defense risk—

Bournemouth

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

BrightonBournemouth
3.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29
0.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.86
2.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.81
1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18
+1.20 Goals minus xGContext -0.52
100% Scored inContext 86%
71% Clean sheetsContext 14%
17.86 ShotsContext 15.14
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.14
34% On target shareContext 34%
11.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.57
61% Box shareContext 64%
18% ConversionContext 9%
3.50 OffsidesContext 2.00
10.71 Shots allowedContext 9.57
3.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
3.67 BlocksContext 2.80
2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
70% Save rateContext 55%
60% PossessionIn forecast 52%
509 PassesContext 433
434 Accurate passesContext 351
85% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.25 Team ratingContext 6.80
12.86 FoulsContext 13.00
10.29 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
2.14 Yellow cardsContext 3.00
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
2.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
2.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.82
1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15
+0.59 Goals minus xGContext -0.32
80% Scored inContext 90%
60% Clean sheetsContext 20%
17.10 ShotsContext 15.80
5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10
34% On target shareContext 32%
11.10 Shots in the boxContext 9.60
65% Box shareContext 62%
15% ConversionContext 10%
2.57 OffsidesContext 2.00
9.80 Shots allowedContext 10.30
3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.11
3.25 BlocksContext 3.29
2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.86
72% Save rateContext 61%
61% PossessionIn forecast 53%
518 PassesContext 434
442 Accurate passesContext 353
85% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.14 Team ratingContext 6.86
11.70 FoulsContext 12.20
10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.80
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Brighton
Rest3.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km286 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Form 94 · 13 pts vs 5.2 for an average club · +4.6 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Crystal Palace5–02.2 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Sunderland2–01.6 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Arsenal3–01.0 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Coventry5–01.7 xPts
  • D5 SepH · Leeds1–11.9 xPts
Bournemouth
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel128 km602 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Form 74 · 9 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Sunderland2–01.8 xPts
  • W15 OctH · Sturm Graz3–02.3 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Chelsea1–51.3 xPts
  • L20 SepH · Liverpool0–11.6 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Real Sociedad2–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Brighton Bournemouth
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 23Moderate · 23
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3.3Premier League 2026-2027, 2 Jan3.1Premier League 2026-2027, 2 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km128 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways286 km602 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 3 / 52 / 3 / 6
Next matchdays after this one10.810.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Brighton Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Crystal Palace (H) 5–0, 18 Oct
1B. Verbruggen(G)
21O. Boscagli 5L. Dunk 44L. Vušković 24F. Kadıoğlu
14Chema Andrés 13P. Groß
29M. De Cuyper 26Y. Ayari 25D. Gómez
19C. Kostoulas
Bournemouth Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sunderland (H) 2–0, 18 Oct
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert 14António Silva 5J. Hill 15A. Smith
10R. Christie 12T. Adams
16M. Tavernier 4L. Cook 37Rayan
9Evanilson

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Brighton Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Bournemouth Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Brighton · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-1-0
Scored
3.25
Conceded
0.25
Bournemouth · Away 0.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-1-2
Scored
1.33
Conceded
3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentBrightonBournemouth
Sunderland W 2–0 A W 2–0 H
Chelsea L 3–4 A L 1–5 A
Points3 of 6 · 1.50 per game3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

5 Brighton wins1 draws2 Bournemouth wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.13 Over 2.563% Both scored63% Clean sheets25% · 13%
  • 19 Jan 2026Brighton1–1Bournemouth
  • 13 Sep 2025Bournemouth2–1Brighton
  • 25 Feb 2025Brighton2–1Bournemouth
  • 23 Nov 2024Bournemouth1–2Brighton
  • 28 Apr 2024Bournemouth3–0Brighton
  • 24 Sep 2023Brighton3–1Bournemouth

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

BrightonBournemouthForecast
Scored per game 3.291.29
Conceded per game 0.711.86
Match goals 4.003.14
Over 1.5 100%86%
Over 2.5 71%57%
Over 3.5 57%43%
Both teams scored 29%71%
Clean sheets 71%14%
Failed to score 0%14%
Games77
BrightonBournemouthForecast
Scored per game 2.601.50
Conceded per game 0.901.50
Match goals 3.503.00
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 70%60%
Over 3.5 40%30%
Both teams scored 20%70%
Clean sheets 60%20%
Failed to score 20%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

BrightonBournemouthLeague
Corners
Corners won5.714.71
Corners conceded5.003.86
Match total10.718.579.49
Over 8.571% 5/729% 2/7
Over 9.571% 5/729% 2/7
Over 10.571% 5/729% 2/7
Cards
Cards2.293.00
Opponent cards1.571.57
Match total3.864.574.17
Over 3.557% 4/771% 5/7
Over 4.543% 3/757% 4/7
BrightonBournemouthLeague
Corners
Corners won6.114.60
Corners conceded4.784.60
Match total10.899.209.49
Over 8.567% 6/950% 5/10
Over 9.567% 6/940% 4/10
Over 10.567% 6/930% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.702.80
Opponent cards1.501.80
Match total3.204.604.17
Over 3.540% 4/1070% 7/10
Over 4.530% 3/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Brighton7 games · scored 23 · conceded 5
4 3 0-15
2 16-30
5 1 31-45
4 46-60
3 1 61-75
5 76-90
Bournemouth7 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
2 2 0-15
1 16-30
3 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 61-75
4 76-90
Brighton10 games · scored 26 · conceded 9
6 3 0-15
2 16-30
5 3 31-45
4 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
6 1 76-90
Bournemouth10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
3 2 0-15
2 16-30
4 3 31-45
4 4 46-60
2 61-75
2 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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