Premier League Gameweek 19 Sat, Jan 2 · 17:30 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset
Bournemouth 15th · 6 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Aston Villa 12th · 8 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel196 kmRest days2.9 · 2.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Bournemouth—%
Draw—%
Aston Villa—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)

Forecast from 18 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Bournemouth and Aston Villa. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

BournemouthAston Villa
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
77 Current StrengthIn forecast 82
83 AttackIn forecast 83
82 DefenceIn forecast 78
74 Form indexContext 84
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bournemouth

Attack—
Defense risk—

Aston Villa

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

BournemouthAston Villa
1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.57
1.81 xGVia Att/Def 1.13
1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.67
-0.52 Goals minus xGContext -0.13
86% Scored inContext 57%
14% Clean sheetsContext 29%
15.14 ShotsContext 11.86
5.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40
34% On target shareContext 27%
9.57 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
64% Box shareContext 64%
9% ConversionContext 8%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.75
9.57 Shots allowedContext 15.86
4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.43
2.80 BlocksContext 3.83
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14
55% Save rateContext 71%
52% PossessionIn forecast 48%
433 PassesContext 410
351 Accurate passesContext 339
81% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.80 Team ratingContext 6.72
13.00 FoulsContext 10.71
12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.52
1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.66
-0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.28
90% Scored inContext 70%
20% Clean sheetsContext 30%
15.80 ShotsContext 13.60
5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.88
32% On target shareContext 35%
9.60 Shots in the boxContext 9.10
62% Box shareContext 65%
10% ConversionContext 13%
2.00 OffsidesContext 1.57
10.30 Shots allowedContext 15.60
4.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
3.29 BlocksContext 4.22
2.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30
61% Save rateContext 73%
53% PossessionIn forecast 46%
434 PassesContext 404
353 Accurate passesContext 340
81% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.86 Team ratingContext 6.91
12.20 FoulsContext 10.50
12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20
2.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bournemouth
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km602 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 74 · 9 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Sunderland2–01.8 xPts
  • W15 OctH · Sturm Graz3–02.3 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Chelsea1–51.3 xPts
  • L20 SepH · Liverpool0–11.6 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Real Sociedad2–11.8 xPts
Aston Villa
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel196 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 84 · 10 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Newcastle1–01.6 xPts
  • W14 OctH · Fenerbahce6–02.0 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Brentford2–21.7 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Tottenham3–21.5 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Nottingham Forest1–21.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Bournemouth Aston Villa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 8Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match2.9Premier League 2026-2027, 30 Dec2.9Premier League 2026-2027, 30 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km196 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways602 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 51 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one3.13.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bournemouth Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sunderland (H) 2–0, 18 Oct
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert 14António Silva 5J. Hill 15A. Smith
10R. Christie 12T. Adams
16M. Tavernier 4L. Cook 37Rayan
9Evanilson
Aston Villa Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Newcastle (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
1Z. Suzuki(G)
29A. Wan-Bissaka 5T. Mings 3V. Lindelöf 2M. Cash
35João Gomes 8B. Kamara
10E. Buendía 44J. Manzambi 47Alysson Edward
11N. Jackson

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Bournemouth Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Aston Villa Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Bournemouth · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.00
Aston Villa · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentBournemouthAston Villa
Brentford D 2–2 H D 2–2 H
Newcastle D 2–2 A W 1–0 A
Points2 of 6 · 1.00 per game4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 Bournemouth wins3 draws4 Aston Villa wins
Goals per game0.88 – 1.88 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets13% · 38%
  • 7 Feb 2026Bournemouth1–1Aston Villa
  • 9 Nov 2025Aston Villa4–0Bournemouth
  • 10 May 2025Bournemouth0–1Aston Villa
  • 26 Oct 2024Aston Villa1–1Bournemouth
  • 21 Apr 2024Aston Villa3–1Bournemouth
  • 3 Dec 2023Bournemouth2–2Aston Villa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

BournemouthAston VillaForecast
Scored per game 1.291.00
Conceded per game 1.861.57
Match goals 3.142.57
Over 1.5 86%57%
Over 2.5 57%57%
Over 3.5 43%43%
Both teams scored 71%43%
Clean sheets 14%29%
Failed to score 14%43%
Games77
BournemouthAston VillaForecast
Scored per game 1.501.80
Conceded per game 1.501.40
Match goals 3.003.20
Over 1.5 90%70%
Over 2.5 60%70%
Over 3.5 30%50%
Both teams scored 70%50%
Clean sheets 20%30%
Failed to score 10%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

BournemouthAston VillaLeague
Corners
Corners won4.713.14
Corners conceded3.864.29
Match total8.577.439.49
Over 8.529% 2/729% 2/7
Over 9.529% 2/714% 1/7
Over 10.529% 2/714% 1/7
Cards
Cards3.002.14
Opponent cards1.573.14
Match total4.575.284.17
Over 3.571% 5/771% 5/7
Over 4.557% 4/757% 4/7
BournemouthAston VillaLeague
Corners
Corners won4.604.00
Corners conceded4.605.00
Match total9.209.009.49
Over 8.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 9.540% 4/1030% 3/10
Over 10.530% 3/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards2.801.80
Opponent cards1.802.80
Match total4.604.604.17
Over 3.570% 7/1060% 6/10
Over 4.560% 6/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Bournemouth7 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
2 2 0-15
1 16-30
3 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 61-75
4 76-90
Aston Villa6 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1 2 0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 46-60
2 61-75
2 4 76-90
Bournemouth10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
3 2 0-15
2 16-30
4 3 31-45
4 4 46-60
2 61-75
2 4 76-90
Aston Villa9 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
3 2 0-15
1 4 16-30
5 1 31-45
1 1 46-60
5 1 61-75
3 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Leeds Everton Jan 120:00 Brighton Manchester United Jan 212:30 Liverpool Coventry Jan 215:00 Arsenal Ipswich Jan 215:00 Brentford Crystal Palace Jan 215:00 Nottingham Forest Fulham Jan 215:00 Sunderland Hull City Jan 215:00 Bournemouth Aston Villa Jan 217:30 Chelsea Newcastle Jan 314:00 Manchester City Tottenham Jan 316:30