Brighton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Premier League
Gameweek 3 Sat, Sep 5 · 15:00
The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
Our take
Brighton were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Brighton. Brighton had 6 days of rest, Leeds 6 and had to travel 341 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel341 kmRest days6 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Brighton56%
Draw22%
Leeds22%
Brighton48%
Draw25%
Leeds27%
Brighton56%
Draw22%
Leeds22%
Brighton48%
Draw23%
Leeds29%
Brighton54%
Draw22%
Leeds23%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Falmer, East Sussex)
20°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 21 km/h
- Humidity 55%
RefereeStuart Attwell
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 143
Team strength
Brighton
Leeds
77
L90 StrengthIn forecast
72
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
73
87
AttackIn forecast
69
85
DefenceIn forecast
77
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLeeds
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BrightonLeeds
3.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
2.59
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.91
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
18.00
ShotsContext
11.50
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
33%
On target shareContext
22%
14.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
79%
Box shareContext
52%
19%
ConversionContext
9%
—
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.50
Shots allowedContext
17.00
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
—
BlocksContext
6.50
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
17%
Save rateContext
100%
74%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
647
PassesContext
348
584
Accurate passesContext
257
90%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
7.03
Team ratingContext
7.00
12.00
FoulsContext
9.50
8.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
0.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.90
ShotsContext
12.80
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
38%
On target shareContext
31%
11.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.11
76%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.00
Shots allowedContext
14.40
4.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.88
BlocksContext
4.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
65%
Save rateContext
72%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
524
PassesContext
391
449
Accurate passesContext
304
86%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.95
Team ratingContext
7.04
11.40
FoulsContext
10.10
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Brighton
WL
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km143 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 62 · 3 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Brighton |
Leeds |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Premier League 2026-2027, 30 Aug | 6Premier League 2026-2027, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 341 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 143 km | 195 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 9.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Brighton
Confirmed XI
1B. Verbruggen(G)
21O. Boscagli
5L. Dunk
44L. Vušković
24F. Kadıoğlu
26Y. Ayari
13P. Groß
29M. De Cuyper
35M. Yalcouyé
25D. Gómez
19C. Kostoulas
Leeds
Confirmed XI
1J. Trafford(G)
5T. Muharemović
30N. Elvedi
24J. Justin
3G. Gudmundsson
22A. Tanaka
4E. Ampadu
18A. Stach
2J. Bogle
19N. Okafor
9D. Calvert-Lewin
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Brighton
Absences are shown before kick-off
Leeds
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Brighton+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Leeds+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Brighton · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Leeds · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Brighton wins3 draws1 Leeds wins
Goals per game1.25 – 0.50
Over 2.525%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets63% · 25%
- 17 May 2026Leeds1–0Brighton
- 1 Nov 2025Brighton3–0Leeds
- 11 Mar 2023Leeds2–2Brighton
- 27 Aug 2022Brighton1–0Leeds
- 15 May 2022Leeds1–1Brighton
- 27 Nov 2021Brighton0–0Leeds
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Brighton | Leeds | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 5.50 | 1.50 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Brighton | Leeds | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.30 | 3.14 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Brighton | Leeds | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.00 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 0.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Brighton | Leeds | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 7.56 | |
| Match total | 10.89 | 11.56 | 9.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stuart Attwell 143 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.03league 3.82
Red cards0.13league 0.05
Cards 5+45%league 32%
Fouls21.2league 23.2
Penalties0.21league 0.18
Home wins48%league 45%
Brighton15 with this referee
Record7-5-3
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.4
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds3
- D18 Apr 26A · Tottenham2–21
- L24 Aug 25A · Everton0–23
- L2 Apr 25H · Aston Villa0–32
- D8 Dec 24A · Leicester2–22
- W23 Nov 24A · Bournemouth2–14
Leeds9 with this referee
Record4-1-4
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- L3 Mar 26H · Sunderland0–11
- L31 Jan 26H · Arsenal0–41
- W24 Oct 25H · West Ham2–13
- W17 Feb 25H · Sunderland2–13
- L28 Dec 22H · Manchester City1–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Brighton2 games · scored 7 · conceded 4
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Leeds2 games · scored 2 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Brighton10 games · scored 20 · conceded 14
5
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
