UEFA Europa League Matchday 6 Thu, Dec 11 · 17:45 Stadion Wankdorf, Bern
BSC Young Boys 26th · 6 pts · 5 played
1–0Full time
Lille 11th · 9 pts · 5 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Lille were slight favourites.

Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 42). BSC Young Boys had 14 days of rest, Lille 5.9 and had to travel 514 km.

Away travel514 kmRest days14 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 3
BSC Young Boys32%
Draw26%
Lille41%
Expected goals 1.30 – 1.51
BSC Young Boys32%
Draw27%
Lille40%
Expected goals 1.25 – 1.43
BSC Young Boys32%
Draw26%
Lille41%
Expected goals 1.29 – 1.50
BSC Young Boys26%
Draw25%
Lille49%
Expected goals 1.16 – 1.69
BSC Young Boys33%
Draw27%
Lille40%
Expected goals 1.27 – 1.44
Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bern)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk
  • Cards per match 3.8
  • Penalties per match 0.17
  • Matches 47

Team strength

BSC Young BoysLille
42 L90 StrengthIn forecast 62
42 Current StrengthIn forecast 54
45 AttackIn forecast 42
36 DefenceIn forecast 60
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

BSC Young Boys

Attack—
Defense risk—

Lille

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

BSC Young BoysLille
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
2.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.29 xGVia Att/Def 1.66
1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41
+0.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.34
80% Scored inContext 80%
20% Clean sheetsContext 40%
12.60 ShotsContext 14.60
4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.20
32% On target shareContext 43%
9.20 Shots in the boxContext 9.60
68% Box shareContext 69%
11% ConversionContext 14%
3.50 OffsidesContext 2.00
18.00 Shots allowedContext 10.40
6.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.75
2.60 BlocksContext 3.00
3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
58% Save rateContext 63%
49% PossessionIn forecast 59%
418 PassesContext 540
349 Accurate passesContext 458
84% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.71 Team ratingContext 7.04
12.20 FoulsContext 10.20
9.40 Fouls sufferedContext 13.60
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.68
1.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11
+0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.32
70% Scored inContext 70%
20% Clean sheetsContext 40%
10.20 ShotsContext 13.80
3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80
34% On target shareContext 42%
7.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.90
63% Box shareContext 65%
12% ConversionContext 15%
2.50 OffsidesContext 1.86
16.70 Shots allowedContext 7.50
6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56
4.11 BlocksContext 2.57
3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
61% Save rateContext 67%
46% PossessionIn forecast 59%
386 PassesContext 523
315 Accurate passesContext 451
82% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.69 Team ratingContext 6.91
14.00 FoulsContext 11.40
10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50
2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

BSC Young Boys
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,820 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Lille
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel514 km503 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
BSC Young Boys Lille
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov5.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 5 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km514 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,820 km503 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 11 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one422.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

BSC Young Boys Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1M. Keller(G)
3J. Hadjam 23L. Benito 5G. Wüthrich 17S. Janko
30S. Lauper 45R. Raveloson
7A. Virginius 13D. Pech 39D. Males
29C. Bedia
+5 more reported missing outside this XI
Lille Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1B. Özer(G)
15R. Perraud 18C. Mbemba 3N. Ngoy 12T. Meunier
21B. André 32A. Bouaddi
27Félix Correia 10H. Haraldsson 17N. Mukau
9O. Giroud
+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
BSC Young Boys Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lille Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • BSC Young Boys+0.2 pp
  • Draw-0.1 pp
  • Lille+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

BSC Young Boys · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
1-0-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
3.00
Lille · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games
W-D-L
1-0-1
Scored
0.50
Conceded
0.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentBSC Young BoysLille
PAOK L 0–4 A L 3–4 H
Points0 of 3 · 0.00 per game0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

BSC Young BoysLilleForecast
Scored per game 1.402.00
Conceded per game 2.401.20
Match goals 3.803.20 2.81
Over 1.5 100%60%
Over 2.5 80%60% 53%
Over 3.5 60%40%
Both teams scored 60%40% 57%
Clean sheets 20%40%
Failed to score 20%20%
Games55
BSC Young BoysLilleForecast
Scored per game 1.402.00
Conceded per game 2.401.20
Match goals 3.803.20 2.81
Over 1.5 100%60%
Over 2.5 80%40% 53%
Over 3.5 60%40%
Both teams scored 60%30% 57%
Clean sheets 20%40%
Failed to score 20%30%
Games510

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

BSC Young BoysLilleLeague
Corners
Corners won5.007.00
Corners conceded4.673.60
Match total9.6710.609.04
Over 8.567% 2/360% 3/5
Over 9.567% 2/340% 2/5
Over 10.567% 2/340% 2/5
Cards
Cards2.202.00
Opponent cards1.002.20
Match total3.204.204.29
Over 3.540% 2/560% 3/5
Over 4.520% 1/540% 2/5
BSC Young BoysLilleLeague
Corners
Corners won5.006.60
Corners conceded6.293.60
Match total11.2910.209.04
Over 8.586% 6/750% 5/10
Over 9.586% 6/750% 5/10
Over 10.586% 6/740% 4/10
Cards
Cards2.401.90
Opponent cards1.202.20
Match total3.604.104.29
Over 3.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 4.540% 4/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 47 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.49league 4.11
Red cards0.30league 0.19
Cards 5+34%league 43%
Fouls22.8league 24.6
Penalties0.17league 0.38
Home wins45%league 51%
BSC Young Boys

No previous matches with this referee.

Lille

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

BSC Young Boys5 games · scored 7 · conceded 12
1 2 0-15
1 3 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 3 61-75
1 2 76-90
Lille5 games · scored 10 · conceded 6
1 0-15
1 2 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 1 61-75
3 1 76-90
BSC Young Boys10 games · scored 12 · conceded 21
3 2 0-15
2 4 16-30
3 2 31-45
2 2 46-60
1 7 61-75
1 4 76-90
Lille10 games · scored 20 · conceded 12
1 1 0-15
2 3 16-30
4 2 31-45
2 46-60
3 2 61-75
8 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures UEFA Europa League

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