BSC Young Boys
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 44). Absences weigh more on Lyon. BSC Young Boys had 42 days of rest, Lyon 3.9 and had to travel 232 km.
Away travel232 kmRest days42 · 3.9Matches / 14d0 · 1
BSC Young Boys34%
Draw26%
Lyon40%
BSC Young Boys33%
Draw27%
Lyon40%
BSC Young Boys33%
Draw26%
Lyon41%
BSC Young Boys27%
Draw25%
Lyon48%
BSC Young Boys34%
Draw27%
Lyon39%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bern)
No weather data yet
Referee · AzerbaijanAliyar Aghayev
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 9
Team strength
BSC Young Boys
Lyon
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
42
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
45
AttackIn forecast
55
36
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
BSC Young BoysLyon
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.17
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
2.09
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.77
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
83%
Scored inContext
83%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
12.33
ShotsContext
14.50
4.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
34%
On target shareContext
38%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
10.33
65%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
3.40
OffsidesContext
2.40
16.67
Shots allowedContext
8.67
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
2.83
BlocksContext
2.20
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
59%
Save rateContext
89%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
420
PassesContext
609
352
Accurate passesContext
540
84%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.75
Team ratingContext
7.00
11.50
FoulsContext
10.83
8.67
Fouls sufferedContext
11.67
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.80
ShotsContext
13.90
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
36%
On target shareContext
39%
7.88
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
62%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
2.75
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.70
Shots allowedContext
8.10
5.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
3.89
BlocksContext
2.17
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
67%
Save rateContext
76%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
394
PassesContext
519
326
Accurate passesContext
455
83%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.92
13.20
FoulsContext
12.70
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
BSC Young Boys
Rest42 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lyon
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel232 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| BSC Young Boys |
Lyon |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 42UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec | 3.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 18 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 232 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
BSC Young Boys
Confirmed XI
1M. Keller(G)
23L. Benito
30S. Lauper
5G. Wüthrich
17S. Janko
6E. Fernandes
45R. Raveloson
7A. Virginius
10A. Sanches
39D. Males
9S. Córdova
Lyon
Confirmed XI
40R. Descamps(G)
3N. Tagliafico
21R. Kluivert
22Clinton Mata
98A. Maitland-Niles
44Khalis Merah
23T. Morton
6F. Tessmann
17Afonso Moreira
10P. Šulc
7A. Karabec
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences BSC Young Boys
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lyon
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- BSC Young Boys+1.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Lyon-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
BSC Young Boys · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
Lyon · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| BSC Young Boys | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 2.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 2.67 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 17% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| BSC Young Boys | Lyon | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 2.80 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 30% | |
| Games | 6 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| BSC Young Boys | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 8.25 | 6.40 | 8.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.17 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 3.34 | 4.17 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| BSC Young Boys | Lyon | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.88 | 3.71 | |
| Match total | 10.38 | 9.14 | 8.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 6/8 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 6/8 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 5.10 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Aliyar Aghayev Azerbaijan · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.44league 4.09
Red cards0.00league 0.20
Cards 5+56%league 42%
Fouls26.3league 24.4
Penalties0.33league 0.35
Home wins33%league 50%
BSC Young BoysNo previous matches with this referee.
LyonNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
BSC Young Boys6 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
2
76-90
Lyon6 games · scored 13 · conceded 3
5
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
BSC Young Boys10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
1
4
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
3
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
6
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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