BSC Young Boys
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
BSC Young Boys47.4%fair odds 2.11
Draw25.8%fair odds 3.87
Panathinaikos26.8%fair odds 3.74
Expected goals1.62 – 1.16total 2.78
Likeliest score1–112.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Panathinaikos
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| BSC Young Boys ↓ · Panathinaikos → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are BSC Young Boys goals, columns Panathinaikos goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%8.15
- 2–19.4%10.59
- 1–09.4%10.65
- 2–08.1%12.33
- 0–06.8%14.72
- 1–26.8%14.76
- 0–16.6%15.23
- 2–25.5%18.20
- 3–15.1%19.60
- 3–04.4%22.81
Winning margin
10.5%
BSC Young Boys by 3+
fair 9.53
14.6%
BSC Young Boys by 2
fair 6.86
22.3%
BSC Young Boys by 1
fair 4.48
25.8%
Draw
fair 3.87
15.8%
Panathinaikos by 1
fair 6.31
7.5%
Panathinaikos by 2
fair 13.31
3.4%
Panathinaikos by 3+
fair 29.33
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
BSC Young Boys goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Panathinaikos goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BSC Young Boys win | 47.4% | 47.1% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 25.8% | 26.3% | -0.4 pp |
| Panathinaikos win | 26.8% | 26.6% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.7% | 50.9% | +1.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.8% | 54.4% | +1.4 pp |
| Expected goals BSC Young Boys | 1.62 | 1.58 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Panathinaikos | 1.16 | 1.13 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- BSC Young Boys win47.4%2.11
- Draw25.8%3.87
- Panathinaikos win26.8%3.74
- Double chance BSC Young Boys or draw73.2%1.37
- Double chance BSC Young Boys or Panathinaikos74.2%1.35
- Double chance Panathinaikos or draw52.6%1.90
- Draw no bet BSC Young Boys63.9%1.56
- Draw no bet Panathinaikos36.1%2.77
Goals
- Over 0.593.2%1.07
- Over 1.577.2%1.29
- Over 2.552.7%1.90
- Over 3.530.5%3.28
- Over 4.515.0%6.67
- Under 1.522.8%4.40
- Under 2.547.3%2.11
- Under 3.569.5%1.44
Both teams to score
- Yes55.8%1.79
- No44.2%2.26
- Yes and over 2.543.5%2.30
- BSC Young Boys win and yes22.9%4.36
- Draw and yes19.1%5.25
- Panathinaikos win and yes13.8%7.25
Team goals
- BSC Young Boys over 0.580.2%1.25
- BSC Young Boys over 1.548.2%2.08
- BSC Young Boys over 2.522.2%4.50
- Panathinaikos over 0.568.8%1.45
- Panathinaikos over 1.532.4%3.08
- Panathinaikos over 2.511.3%8.87
- BSC Young Boys clean sheet31.2%3.20
- Panathinaikos clean sheet19.8%5.06
- BSC Young Boys win to nil24.4%4.09
- Panathinaikos win to nil13.0%7.71
Handicap
- BSC Young Boys −1.525.1%3.99
- BSC Young Boys −2.510.5%9.53
- Panathinaikos +1.574.9%1.33
- Panathinaikos +2.589.5%1.12
- Panathinaikos −1.510.9%9.15
- BSC Young Boys +1.589.1%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored11
Favourite won54.5%
Avg chance given to result39.4%
1X2 Brier0.601
Over 2.5 called right54.5%
BTTS called right63.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.2% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 5 | 44.9% | 40.0% |
| 50–60% | 2 | 50.6% | 100.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 64.1% | 0.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 11 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 11 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.